Stunted at 63: Nigeria Needs A Political And Constitutional Settlement

 By Olu Fasan

Perfunctorily, Nigeria’s 63rd independence anniversary was marked earlier this week. Perfunctory, because it wasn’t a celebration of Nigeria’s success as a nation, but of its mere existence. Yet, the mere existence of a country is not a sufficient reason for celebration, but its strength, stability and progress, as well as the prosperity and well-being of its citizens.

Sadly, at 63, Nigeria is stunted politically, economically and socially. Even worse, as currently constituted, with its deeply flawed political and governance structures, Nigeria cannot escape from the rot. Yet, Nigeria’s political leaders are in denial, playing Russian roulette!

First 100 Days: Tinubu Puts Inflated Rhetoric Above Credible Actions

 By Olu Fasan

For those who have not yet noticed it, here’s a major difference between Bola Tinubu and Muhammadu Buhari, his immediate predecessor as president. While Buhari was tongue-tied and taciturn, Tinubu is free-tongued and expressive. While Buhari kept most of his limited thoughts to himself, Tinubu has something to say on virtually every subject, except his personal life, and is more than willing to say it. Indeed, he’s been speaking!

*Tinubu

That, clearly, is a positive thing. For, as Professors Paul Collier and Tim Besley put it in their seminal report Escaping the fragility trap, “Leaders are first-and-foremost communicators.” They argued that “narratives” are a powerful tool that leaders can use to transform their nation: narratives about their vision for a better future, narratives about what must be done to achieve that future and narratives about how they intend to lead their country towards that better future. So, it’s a good thing that Tinubu is talking to Nigerians.

Coups In Africa: It’s Time Politicians Accepted Soldiers As Rival For Power

 By Olu Fasan

The recent resurgence of military coups in Africa calls for further exposition, and I would do that here through the theory of militarism. From a cause-and-effect point of view, it’s futile, even irrational, to condemn coup d’états and ignore their root causes.

Unfortunately, a lot of contrived denunciation has dogged recent coups in Africa, whereas the underlying problems are glossed over. Indeed, some would view this piece as “coup-baiting”. Yet, the real coup-baiting is the failure of politicians to recognise that soldiers are their real rival for power, and that they must do the right things, democratically and in good-governance terms, to keep the military in the barracks and out of politics. 

PEPC Judgement: The Verdict Can Destroy Presidential Democracy In Nigeria

 By Olu Fasan

Last week, I put everything aside to watch the ruling of the Presidential Election Petition Court, PEPC, from start to finish! With rapt attention, I picked up the minutiae of the extremely detailed verdict. But after the 13-hour-long ruling, I was utterly despondent about the future of presidential elections in Nigeria. 

*The 2023 PEPC Judges 

Let me start with two general observations. First, the judges worked to a predetermined answer. Because they couldn’t bring themselves to invalidate the election of a sitting president, unprecedented in Nigeria, they found every reason to affirm Bola Tinubu’s election. Courts of first instance are fact-finding courts that seek to get to the bottom of a matter and do justice. But the PEPC used every conceivable procedural technicality to reject virtually all the facts and witnesses presented by Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar.

Nigeria’s New Jobs ‘Data’: NBS Makes Itself A Laughingstock!

 By Olu Fasan

The news came like a bolt from the blue. Nigeria’s jobless rate dropped from 33.3 per cent to 4.1 per cent in August, declared the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS. It was a meteoric rise in employment that called for national celebration. Except that it was a lie, a total fabrication. Nothing changed in Nigeria’s depressing unemployment situation. The sharp ‘drop’ from 33.3 per cent to 4.1 per cent only came about because the NBS changed the methodology for measuring unemployment. It was a shameful statistical sleight of hand!

Every statistical body must crave public confidence in the data it produces, based on the cardinal rule that data must be ethically sound and stand up to scrutiny. But the NBS breached this rule with jobs data that are utterly misleading, suggesting that Nigeria’s jobless rate magically came tumbling down from 33.3 per cent to 4.1 per cent. But nothing magical happened. It was a human contrivance. The NBS said the methodology that produced the jobs data was “in line with international best practices”, saying it was “recommended” by the International Labour Organisation, ILO.

Tinubu’s Government: Where Is Nigeria’s Soul, Moral Compass?

 By Olu Fasan

Every great nation is built on a strong moral foundation. No nation succeeds without, as Plato put it, a “healthy soul”, where reason, passion and will drive leaders and citizens to defend their nation’s best interests. Equally, no nation succeeds without a moral compass, without a robust sense of what’s right and what’s wrong.

*Tinubu 
But Nigeria is a nation where might is right, where the powerful can get away with anything. Nothing has exposed the national soullessness and moral-vacuum more than the emergence of Bola Tinubu as Nigeria’s president and the indecorous manner in which he formed a “government”.

War With Niger? Tinubu Is Playing Reckless Macho Politics

 By Olu Fasan

It is a truism that a country’s foreign policy is the reflection of its domestic circumstances. A country that faces huge economic, political and security crises at home would be foolhardy to prosecute a war abroad. Furthermore, a robust foreign policy depends on domestic support. Thus, it’s utterly reckless and dangerous for a president to take his country into a foreign war without the endorsement of the legislature and understanding of critical domestic constituencies! Yet, that’s what Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s new and sophomoric president, seems intent on doing in response to the military coup in Niger Republic.

*Tinubu

Since the coup in July, which removed President Mohammed Bazoum from power and installed General Abdourahamane Tchiani as head of state, Tinubu has talked tough, vowing that “all means will be used to restore constitutional order in Niger”. Under his leadership as chairman of the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS, the organisation gave the junta a week’s ultimatum to reverse the coup. When that failed, ECOWAS ordered the “deployment” of a “standby force” to invade Niger. Now, it’s said to have agreed a “D-Day” for military action!

Why Do Nigerian Governors Swear Allegiance To The President?

 By Olu Fasan

This is a subject I have long wanted to address. It first caught my attention when I watched the inauguration of Professor Charles Soludo as governor of Anambra State in March 2022. As he recited the oath of office, I was struck by how many times he mentioned the words “Federal Republic of Nigeria”, “President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria” and “Federal Government of Nigeria”, while he only directly mentioned “Anambra State” once; yes, once!  

*Tinubu meets governors 

The words quoted above, bar Anambra State, are in the governor’s oath set out in the Seventh Schedule of the 1999 Constitution. For instance, it says a governor must exercise the authority vested in him “so as not to impede or prejudice the authority lawfully vested in the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria”, and “so as not to endanger the continuance of the Federal Government in Nigeria”. It goes on: a governor must “devote” himself “to the service and well-being of the people of Nigeria”. Really? Why?

Tinubu’s Ministers: A Bunch Of Political Rewardees And Cronies

 By Olu Fasan

One of the popular myths around Bola Tinubu, stemming from his time as governor of Lagos State, was that he had an uncanny ability to pick competent teams of technocrats to run the affairs of state. Indeed, some genuinely wanted Tinubu to be president and “run Nigeria as he ran Lagos.” But the myths have busted since he became president. Not only has he muddled through policy after policy, the famed gift for talent-spotting gravely eluded him as he unveiled a middling cast of ministers, characterised by two fundamental flaws. 

*Tinubu 

First, Tinubu will have the largest cabinet in Nigeria’s political history. With 48 ministers and over 20 special advisers and senior special assistants, with cabinet-level status, Tinubu will have the most bloated and unwieldy cabinet of any past president.

Nigeria: The ‘Demise’ Of The Peoples Democratic Party

 By Olu Fasan

Once upon a time, a political party bestrode Nigerian politics like a colossus. It governed Nigeria for 16 years and vowed to rule for 60. But it’s utter hubris. Buffeted from crisis to crisis, a deep rot set in, then an existential decline. Charles Darwin famously said that any organism that cannot adjust to its environment will become extinct. In the struggle for existence, it’s survival of the fittest; only the strong organisms will continue to exist, the weak will succumb to extinction. That’s the story of the Peoples Democratic Party!

In truth, PDP is not dead, not extinct; it’s still alive, albeit on life support. Thus, it’s more appropriate to say that PDP is dying, that it’s on a deathbed. The undertakers and political vultures are circling, and whether the party can survive, whether it can escape extinction, depends on how it handles Nyesom Wike and his gang of renegades. 

Adamu’s Forced Exit: The Post-Power Humiliation Of Buhari

 By Olu Fasan

Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria’s immediate past president, had a post-power syndrome. He once said he would find life difficult if a president from another party succeeded him. He genuinely feared that a successor from another party would treat him and his allies the same way he treated his predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, and his loyalists in 2015.

*Adamu and Buhari 
So, Buhari exploited his incumbency and pulled all the stops to secure “victory” for Bola Tinubu, saying “he will continue my legacy”. Indeed, in his last days in office, Buhari made several appointments and launched several initiatives as if saying: “they’re safe in Tinubu’s hands.”

Student Loans Law: Tinubu’s Populist And Half-Baked Policy

 By Olu Fasan

Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s new president, was determined to hit the ground running from his first day in office. He was haunted by the ghost of his somnolent predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, who sat desultorily on his hands, doing nothing for the first six months of his administration in 2015. Unlike Buhari, who was called, and relished being called, “Baba Go Slow”, Tinubu has been called, and enjoys being called, “Baba Go Fast”! But, in governance, going fast can be as bad as, even worse than, going slow.

*Bola Tinubu 

This is because good government depends on good policy making, and good policy making requires thoughtfulness, proper planning and a comprehensive analysis of the problem. However, Tinubu has shown a penchant for populist and half-baked policies. Populist, because they’re eye-catching and intended to show he cares about ordinary people; half-baked, because they’re poorly thought through, and defy basic rules of good policymaking.

El-Rufai’s Wish For An ‘Islamic Republic Of Nigeria’

 By Olu Fasan

Mallam Nasir el-Rufai is an unrepentant religious bigot; a militant Islamic supremacist, who believes Islam is superior to Christianity and should be privileged in national leadership. He doesn’t just hold these views, he actively pursues them. As governor of Kaduna State for eight years, until May this year, El-Rufai ran an Islamic government, with a Muslim-controlled administration, despite the state’s large Christian population.

*El-Rufai 

Now, out of office, he prides himself on installing a successor on a Muslim-Muslim ticket, and entrenching Muslim dominance of Kaduna State governance. More significantly, El-Rufai boasts of foisting his Kaduna State Muslim-Muslim leadership model on Nigeria, and warns Nigerians to brace themselves for a prolonged Muslim leadership of this country

‘Democracy Day’: The Deception And Betrayal Of ‘June 12 Activists’

 By Olu Fasan

General Ibrahim Babangida erred tragically and did a great disservice to Nigeria by annulling the presidential election of June 12, 1993. But nothing has deepened the wounds more than the deception and betrayal of the so-called “June 12 activists”, who turned the annulment into a self-serving political lodestar and built their political careers around it, yet bastardised the spirit of the June 12 election by acquiring power through a deeply flawed presidential poll that violated universal rules of credible elections.

*MKO Abiola 

Earlier this week, General Babangida said the “gains” of the June 12, 1993 presidential election were squandered in succeeding elections. He told journalists: “It was adjudged the freest and fairest election in Nigeria, yet politicians have blatantly ignored that beauty: the beauty of credible elections.” How ironic that the man who flagrantly annulled an election now talks, 30 years later, about the “gains” and “beauty” of the same election!

Corruption: EFCC Is Not Fit For Purpose; It’s Time To Scrap It!

 By Olu Fasan

When General Olusegun Obasanjo became president in 1999, he was under pressure from the international community to tackle corruption frontally. Obasanjo himself described corruption in Nigeria as cancerous, saying it required surgical operations. He established an anti-corruption agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, in 2003.

But 20 years later, Nigeria remains a “fantastically corrupt country” as a former British prime minister memorably put it. The cancer of corruption has festered and spread malignantly, destroying every facet of Nigeria’s polity.

Tinubu’s Minority Government Faces A Legitimacy Challenge

 By Olu Fasan

Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the newly installed president of Nigeria, is a product of two great institutional anomalies. One is a deeply flawed Constitution designed to delegitimise the presidency of Nigeria. The other is a Might-Is-Right state that manipulates state agencies to impose its will on the people. These anomalies deny Tinubu’s presidency the strong mandate and legitimacy it badly needs to govern.

*Tinubu

Let’s start with the constitutional anomalies. Under section 134 (2) of the 1999 Constitution, a candidate is deemed elected as president, where there are more than two candidates, if: (a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election, and (b) he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two thirds of all the states in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

Good Riddance, Buhari: You Came, You Saw, You Failed Woefully!

 By Olu Fasan

Muhammadu Buhari, president of Nigeria since 2015, will leave office on Monday, May 29, after eight disastrous years. The late Chief Bola Ige famously coined the phrase, “good riddance to bad rubbish”. That, truth be told, is the best way to describe the exit of Buhari, his presidency and his government from power.

*Buhari 

For the past eight years of Buhari’s administration have been an unmitigated failure; a monumental waste of time, of resources, and of the hopes and aspirations of a nation and a people. True stewardship is leaving a place better than one found it. But Buhari is leaving Nigeria far worse than he found it in 2015.

Ekweremadu: Britain Is Nigeria’s Nemesis On Criminal Justice

 By Olu Fasan

Let me say this: I take absolutely no joy in the plight of Senator Ike Ekweremadu, former Deputy Senate President, and his wife, Beatrice, who were recently jailed by a British court for human-trafficking and organ-harvesting offences.

But those begging the new British monarch, King Charles III, to grant the couple royal pardon are misguided. Such pleas fuel the perception of Nigeria as a lawless country and expose the sharp contrast between Nigeria and Britain on criminal justice and the rule of law.

G-5: The Fallacy Of Wike’s ‘Contribution’ To Tinubu’s ‘Victory’

 By Olu Fasan

Last week, Nyesom Wike, the outgoing governor of Rivers State, gave Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s putative next president, extravagant welcome to Port Harcourt, the state capital. Tinubu was in Port Harcourt to open a Magistrate’s Court complex that Wike named after his wife. Wike declared a public holiday and closed down shops so that Rivers people could turn out to welcome Tinubu. He later hosted Tinubu to a grand reception, a lavish banquet! Surely, those acts were an extraordinary abuse of power.

*Wike welcomes Tinubu to Port Harcourt

How would you explain a sitting governor naming a monument, built with state resources, after his wife? How would you explain a state governor declaring a public holiday, closing businesses, thereby crippling commercial activities, so that someone could “open” the monument? And would any responsible would-be president be part of such abuse of office and waste of state resources?

Constitutional Interpretation: Nigeria’s Democracy Is On Tenterhooks

 By Olu Fasan

In just over three weeks, on May 29, Bola Tinubu will be inaugurated as President and Commander-in-Chief of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Yet, in parallel, election petitions seeking to nullify his declaration as winner of this year’s presidential poll are earnestly afoot. Given that the petitions won’t be determined before May 29, a sword of Damocles, in the form of his removal from power, potentially hangs over Tinubu’s head. Theoretically, that’s a possibility; otherwise, what’s the point of the presidential election petitions?

The 1999 Constitution, under section 239(1), allows the Court of Appeal and, ultimately, the Supreme Court to determine whether someone has been validly elected as president; the Electoral Act 2022, under section 136(1), requires the court to nullify the election of someone not duly elected as president. Thus, constitutionally, Tinubu’s election as president could eventually be nullified, however long it takes to determine the petitions. But that’s theoretical.