By Olu Fasan
In 2023,
Bola Ahmed Tinubu sowed the seed of the political humiliation of
Christianity in Nigeria. As a presidential candidate, Tinubu concluded that
Christianity was of such low electoral value that no northern Christian could
help him win the presidency. Thus, he picked a fellow Muslim as his running
mate.
*Tinubu prays with fellow Muslims It worked.
However, the seed that Tinubu planted is now being watered by Islamic bigots
who are citing the “success” of the 2023 Muslim-Muslim ticket as evidence of
Islam’s numerical superiority over Christianity in Nigeria and, thus, asserting
that Muslims should continue to dominate national leadership, a view recently
advanced by Sheikh Sani Yahaya Jingir, an Islamic supremacist.
Unfortunately,
the seed planted by Tinubu and being watered by Islamic zealots is growing, as
the Tinubu presidency mollycoddles the Islamic jingoists while traducing
Christian leaders whose only sin is speaking truth to power, as evidenced by
the recent treatment of Catholic bishops who visited President Tinubu to alert
him to the parlous state of the nation.
Cardinal John Onaiyekan, head of the
delegation, told the media that the Catholic bishops visited the president
because “the nation is bleeding.” Responding, Daniel Bwala, special adviser to
President Tinubu on policy communication, said Cardinal Onaiyekan “sounded more
political than spiritual.” Another presidential aide, Temitope Ajayi, the
president’s senior media assistant, accused Cardinal Onaiyekan of “abuse of
clerical privilege.” But the presidency said not a word on Sheikh Jingir’s
incendiary comments.
But why did the presidency close its eyes to Jingir
but was quick to condemn the Catholic bishops? Well, because Jingir’s message
to Muslims to “raise the flag of Islam” and vote for the Muslim-Muslim ticket
again in 2027 was music to President Tinubu’s ears, as opposed to the Catholic
bishops’ jarring warning that Nigeria is “bleeding” under him.
As a heuristic,
“confirmation bias” tells us people tend to embrace information that supports
what they want to hear and dismiss information that contradicts it. So, it’s
not surprising the presidency ignored Jingir’s pro-Tinubu inflammatory outburst
but swiftly condemned the Catholic bishops’ criticism of the president. Yet,
Jingir is a monumental danger to religious harmony in Nigeria and should be
denounced for his provocative outbursts!
Think about
it. Recently, on August 8, at a mass wedding organised by the Kano State
government for 1,500 couples, Sheikh Jingir said the “outcome” of Tinubu’s
Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023 demonstrated the numerical superiority of Muslims
in Nigeria and called for its repeat in 2027. “So, here I am calling on you,
please everyone should get their voters’ cards ready,” he said. “Let us show
the world that those unbelievers who claim they outnumber us in Nigeria are
lying.” Describing Nigeria as “a Muslim-majority country,” Sheikh Jingir
stressed: “I’m calling on people to come and let us do Muslim-Muslim again.”
Now, if you think such combustible comments could only come from a less urbane
man, you would be wrong.
Nasir
el-Rufai, the highly educated and seemingly sophisticated former governor of
Kaduna State, said the same thing in 2023. In a viral video, el-Rufai
attributed Tinubu’s victory in 2023 to the Muslim-Muslim ticket, saying Tinubu
“knew he had no option” but to pick a fellow Muslim as his running mate;
otherwise, “he would lose the election.” El-Rufai said Tinubu’s victory showed
Christians lacked electoral value in presidential politics in Nigeria, and
mocked the Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN, which had “kept quiet” and
“remained mute” since Tinubu’s victory. “There is no liar that can say he will
do politics of Christianity and win the election,” he said, adding, “So, if we
keep bringing Muslim-Muslim tickets, everything will go smoothly for us
Muslims.”
At the
heart of Jingir and el-Rufai’s comments is population. They both believe that
Muslims are more numerous than Christians in Nigeria and that Muslims would
always determine the winner in any presidential election. Of course, President
Tinubu believes the narrative too. He picked Kashim Shettima as his running
mate in 2023, and retains him for 2027, not because Shettima is a “genius,” as
he claimed, but because he believed, and still believes, only a Muslim-Muslim
ticket could win him the presidency and re-election.
Indeed,
earlier this year, Tinubu’s wife confirmed that her husband’s Muslim-Muslim
ticket was a deliberate and calculated political decision. In February, the
first lady told The Free Press in the US: “Let’s face it, the Muslims are more
than us (Christians). If a southern Muslim wants to run for president, politics
is a game of numbers. You have to pick another Muslim; you can’t pick a
Christian.”
But there
was nothing in the results of the 2023 presidential election that showed
empirically that most Muslims supported Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket. Of the
24 million Nigerians who voted in the election, only 8.8 million, or 36.6 per
cent, voted for Tinubu: an overwhelming 14.6 million, or 63.39 per cent of
voters, rejected him.
A controversial victory secured under a plurality
electoral system, not a majoritarian one, cannot justify a conclusion that
Nigerians supported a Muslim-Muslim ticket or that a Muslim-Muslim presidential
ticket would always prevail. Yet, el-Rufai bragged, “So, if we keep bringing
Muslim-Muslim tickets, everything will go well for us Muslims.” And Sheikh
Jingir boasted, “Let’s do Muslim-Muslim again.” He was confident the formula
would always win, thanks to the Muslims’ “numerical strength.” Such a perverse
narrative, if unchecked, could fuel religious tension in Nigeria.
In their
book Nigeria: What Everyone Needs to
Know, John Campbell and Mathew Page state that “the official consensus
is that Christians and Muslims each make up about half of the population,”
adding that “former military head of state Murtala Muhammed famously voiced
this fifty-fifty formula as conventional wisdom.” The conventional wisdom
necessitated maintaining a balance of power between Islam and Christianity on
the basis that neither religion is dominant over the other.
For that reason,
the Muslim-Muslim ticket of MKO Abiola and Baba Gana Kingibe in the 1993
presidential election was deemed an aberration. In his memoir A Journey in
Service, General Ibrahim Babangida wrote, “Abiola, a southern Muslim, defied
conventional wisdom by picking another Muslim as his running mate for the June
12 presidential election.” Babangida’s comment confirms there was, indeed, such
conventional wisdom.
Some would,
indeed, argue that competence should trump religious balance in national
leadership. But in that case, would a Christian-Christian presidential ticket
be treated equally to a Muslim-Muslim ticket? Well, not by the Muslim North.
Asked on Arise TV if the North would accept a Christian-Christian ticket,
Farouk Aliyu, an APC chieftain, said, “Based on the North I know, the North
will not be comfortable with a Christian-Christian ticket.”
So, it’s not
about competence or meritocracy, it’s about perceived religious supremacy.
Thus, as President Tinubu’s wife made clear, her husband did not opt for a
Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023, or replicate it for 2027, because of competence
but rather because, as she put it, “Let’s face it, the Muslims are more than us
(Christians),” even though there has never been a nationwide religious census
in Nigeria.
The
American founding fathers realised that one could not create fair voting
systems without measuring the population. Hence, Article I, Section 2 of the US
Constitution states that Congress should carry out a census in “such manner as
they shall by Law direct every ten years.” But Nigeria’s last nationwide
population census took place in 2006.
Furthermore, while the UK reviews its
electoral constituencies every eight to 12 years, Nigeria rarely changes its
electoral constituencies. Yet, based on frequently rigged elections, we are
told that Islam is more populous than Christianity, and that the age-old
practice of balancing the interests of both faiths should give way to the
political subordination of Christianity to Islam.
Perversely,
some excuse Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim presidency because his wife is a Christian.
But “First Lady” is not a constitutional position; “Vice President” is. Thus,
having a Muslim president and a Muslim vice president humiliates Christianity
politically. Tinubu planted the seed; Islamic zealots are watering it. But
denying Christianity parity of status in Nigeria’s political firmament is dangerous;
it’s a ticking religious time bomb!
*Dr. Fasan is a commentator on public issues