How 2023 Will Affect Nigeria’s Political Stability For Decades

By Olu Fasan

Nigerians, it seems, have moved on from the political events of 2023. Some are already talking about, others planning for, 2027. But the thoughtful and perceptive will not easily forget 2023. For the events of that year will have far-reaching consequences that could unsettle Nigeria for decades. As someone who is heavily invested in Nigeria’s political development, my concern here is how the events of 2023 could deepen Nigeria’s instability, while hoping an alternative aftermath would avert that dreadful political trajectory. 

For a start, following the Supreme Court verdict, Bola Tinubu is now the de facto and de jure president of Nigeria, leaving aside the philosophical question about the nature of his mandate. However, his presidency sets Nigeria on an unstable political future on two key fronts, both regarding the management of Nigeria’s diversity. This may not matter now, it will at some point. But before we come to that, there’s the more imminent problem of the 2027 presidential election. In one sense, 2027 will be like 2015; in another, it won’t. In both senses, 2027 will be acutely challenging. Here’s why.

Nigeria: From Buharisation To Tinubuisation

 By Ochereome Nnanna

When a woman marries twice, she is better placed to know which husband treated her better. As a country, Nigeria has married two husbands since 1999: the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the All Progressives Congress, APC. No doubt, we experienced a far better Nigeria under the PDP than the APC. This claim has nothing to do with partisanship. Whatever evil the PDP committed, the APC regimes have multiplied them tenfold and added fresh, vile inventions of their own.

*Buhari and Tinubu 

The PDP was founded by political leaders who tried to use the outcomes of the Abacha Constitutional Conference to build an improved democracy and governance system. The PDP was built on the foundation of equitable power sharing and rotation, as well as the Federal Character Principle enshrined in Section 14(3) of the 1999 Constitution, as agreed at the Conference.

Is INEC Chairman Still In Office?

 By Ugo Onuoha

Election is a serious matter for countries that are serious. In this regard, we are still struggling to place our country in one of the two categories: serious or unserious.

*Yakubu

In some jurisdictions, election is a charade, a make-believe and a joke. Will Nigeria join this dubious league? Before its civil war in 2011, periodic elections were held in Syria where the outcomes were predictable. The Assad family was sure to win any and all presidential elections with wide margins. State power usually moved from father to son. Malawi under Dr. Hasting Kamuzu Banda also conducted periodic elections and the then President won all presidential contests by landslides. Banda was no ‘bushman’.

The First Fruits Of A Crooked INEC

 By Chidi Anselm Odinkalu

Evidence of the scope of the mess created by Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) under the leadership of Mahmood Yakubu began to emerge this past week. It all suggests network egregiousness on a monumental scale that easily rivals the elections of 2007, until now seen as the nadir in Nigeria’s journey of elective governance.

*Yakubu

As the National Judicial Council (NJC) released the names of the 257 judges who will sit to consider and decide on elections petitions around the country beginning in May 2023, it emerged this past week that so far 1,044 petitions have been filed against results declared by the INEC in the 2023 elections. That is already more than 70% of the 1,490 seats contested and it appears that these are not the final numbers.

2023 Presidential Election: Chimamanda Adichie Writes President Biden

"The smoldering disillusionment felt by many Nigerians is not so much because their candidate did not win as because the election they had dared to trust was, in the end, so unacceptably and unforgivably flawed. Congratulating its outcome, President Biden, tarnishes America’s self-proclaimed commitment to democracy. Please do not give the sheen of legitimacy to an illegitimate process. The United States should be what it says it is."

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Dear President Biden,

Something remarkable happened on the morning of February 25, the day of the Nigerian presidential election. Many Nigerians went out to vote holding in their hearts a new sense of trust. Cautious trust, but still trust. Since the end of military rule in 1999, Nigerians have had little confidence in elections. To vote in a presidential election was to brace yourself for the inevitable aftermath: fraud.

*Chimamanda Adichie 

Elections would be rigged because elections were always rigged; the question was how badly. Sometimes voting felt like an inconsequential gesture as predetermined “winners” were announced.

A law passed last year, the 2022 Electoral Act, changed everything. It gave legal backing to the electronic accreditation of voters and the electronic transmission of results, in a process determined by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The chair of the commission, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, assured Nigerians that votes would be counted in the presence of voters and recorded in a result sheet, and that a photo of the signed sheet would immediately be uploaded to a secure server. When rumors circulated about the commission not keeping its word, Yakubu firmly rebutted them.

Nigeria: DSS Can’t Afford Frivolity

 By Amanze Obi

The other day, the Department of State Services (DSS) had cause to talk tough. It said through a press statement that there was a plot by some Nigerians for the installation of an interim government at the end of President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure on May 29. The service said it has uncovered those behind the burgeoning scheme. It frowned seriously on the plot and warned those behind it to retrace their steps.

The reaction from the DSS was predictable. It was its immediate response to the petition brought before it by one of the defenders of Bola Tinubu’s contentious election victory, Festus Keyamo. The Tinubu apologist had alleged that the presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the February 25 election, Mr. Peter Obi, and his running mate, Festus Keyamo were promoting insurrection and civil disobedience. Keyamo asked the DSS to arrest them and charge them for incitement and treasonable felony.

As Nigeria’s Judges Get Set To Begin Voting

 By Chidi Anselm Odinkalu

This week, the opening salvo will be fired to signal the onset of the final round of voting in Nigeria’s electoral marathon. This is not a reference to the state-level ballots that occurred around the country on Saturday, March 18. I refer instead to something far more consequential.

Democracy may be about choices and decisions by citizens in theory. As practised in Nigeria, however, citizens are mostly spectators. In every election, Nigeria’s judges have the final votes.

Still In Bewilderment, Gazing At Yakubu

 By Amanze Obi  

There is no beating about the bush here. The cold, hard fact is that Nigerians have just received the deepest cut. They have been stabbed in the neck by someone who promised them life. They have been hit below the belt by a man they thought was harmless. Now, the people are writhing in pains. The country is convulsing in its death throes. 

*Yakubu 

We trace all this to the grand betrayal by Mahmood Yakubu, the infamous chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Yakubu, in life and death, will go down in history as the master dissembler who took his country through the mine field of treachery and deceit. The people believed him till the last hour. They only woke up overnight to discover to their chagrin that he has given them the worst election in the annals of history. The most ironical is that Yakubu’s trenchant assault on the country’s democracy took place at a time the people were expecting to have the freest, fairest and most transparent election in their country’s history. 

Nigeria: Steal The Election And Let Them Go To Court

 By Uzor Maxim Uzoatu

Any ruling party can make even a goat win an election. The only exception to this great truism is Goodluck Jonathan who lost his baton. Nigeria had a much-ballyhooed presidential election on February 25, and there is not much to report except that the election was bought and sold. 

Any talk of the elections being free, fair and credible belongs to fiction. The election result was declared at the ungodly hour of 4am, and losers in the contest were asked to go to court. It’s a well-worn mantra – steal the election for me and tell the opposition to go to court very fast. 

Tinubu’s Chatham House Farce And Attack On Free Press

 By Olu Fasan

About two months ago, I received a call from a loyalist of Bola Tinubu, presidential candidate of All Progressives Congress, APC. The caller, an old acquaintance, asked if I could advise on how Tinubu could secure a meeting with the new British monarch, King Charles III. I was flabbergasted, stunned!

*Tinubu

Okay, I was a UK Government adviser but advising on how a foreign politician could meet the monarch was well above my paygrade. Besides, was he not reading my columns? Did he not know I believed, still believe, a Tinubu presidency would be monumentally disastrous for Nigeria? 

Death, An Inconclusive Election And The Law (Part II)

By Kennedy Emetulu

 The first part of this piece was written immediately after the death of the APC candidate in the Kogi governorship election, Prince Abubakar Audu was first reported. In that piece, I expressed the view that despite the fact that there is seemingly no clear constitutional provision or provision in the Electoral Law 2010 to deal with a situation where a candidate dies during an election, INEC should do a purposive reading of sections 33 and 36(1) of the Electoral Act to provide a simple, fair, just and lawful resolution of the problem. Here is how I stated it: 

“…I think, even though it’s not a court of law, INEC should adopt a purposive approach to the interpretation of the statute, because that is likely how the court will view it if the matter comes before it. Should it take the matter to court for interpretation first before it continues with the election? That is a decision it should take in consultation with its legal officers, but if I were to advise them, I’d say no need, because the election is already on and the public policy argument must favour a quick and favourable conclusion, so as not to extend the tenure of the incumbent unduly, especially where he may likely not be the one ultimately elected. INEC must always act in the spirit of allowing the people to choose their Governor as at when due. It is the essence of choice in a democracy.

“A purposive reading of the Electoral Act will look at the provisions of Sections 33 and 36(1) and conclude that the mischief the Electoral Act is trying to cure with these provisions is to avoid a situation where death of a candidate frustrates the election. So, the oversight of not specifically considering what happens when a candidate dies during election should not take away the justice and fairness provided in the law for all situations where a candidate dies before or during the poll, especially where there is no material change in the situation between the time before the poll and during the poll when death occurred”.

INEC Under Yakubu Incapable OF Being Neutral – PDP

Communique Issued At The End Of The Emergency National Caucus Meeting Of The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Held On Wednesday, November 25, 2015.

The National Caucus of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) met on Wednesday, November 25, 2015 in Abuja wherein it thoroughly considered the developments arising from the conduct of the inconclusive governorship election in Kogi state and resolved as follows;

INEC Chairman, Yakubu 

1.                   Completely rejects the decision of INEC in yielding to the unlawful prompting of a clearly partisan Attorney General of the Federation (AGF), Mallam Abubakar Malami, to allow APC to substitute a candidate in the middle of an election, even when such has no place in the Constitution and the Electoral Act.

2.                  Insists that with the death of its candidate, Prince Abubakar Audu, the APC has legally crashed out of the governorship race as no known law or constitutional provision allows the substituting of candidates, once the ballot process has commenced.

3.                  Insists that with the unfortunate death of Prince Abubakar Audu, the APC has no valid candidate in the election, leaving INEC with no other lawful option than to declare the PDP candidate, Capt. Idris Wada as the winner of the election.

How To Resolve The Kogi State Constitutional Conundrum

By Inibehe Effiong

The sudden death of Prince Abubakar Audu, the governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kogi State, on Sunday, 22nd November, 2015 has undoubtedly ignited a constitutional crisis. The tragic news which was first published by SaharaReporters has instigated controversy on what will be the possible legal implications or consequences of his death. 

*Audu

Among the issues arising from the death of Prince Audu are the following:

1. Whether the running mate to Prince Audu and the APC deputy governorship candidate can assume the position and status of the deceased as the candidate of the APC;

2. If the question in 1 above is answered in the negative, can the APC substitute the deceased as its governorship candidate; and

3. Whether it is legally permissible in the circumstance for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to cancel the inconclusive election of Saturday November  21st 2015 and conduct a fresh throughout Kogi State.

This is unarguably a novel case. This is the first time in the course of a democratic transition that a validly nominated candidate of a political party in Nigeria will die after an inconclusive election but before and without paricipating in the supplementary election. It is unprecedented. The result is that there is no precedent that can be referred to which could aid in the resolution of the present case.