How 2023 Will Affect Nigeria’s Political Stability For Decades

By Olu Fasan

Nigerians, it seems, have moved on from the political events of 2023. Some are already talking about, others planning for, 2027. But the thoughtful and perceptive will not easily forget 2023. For the events of that year will have far-reaching consequences that could unsettle Nigeria for decades. As someone who is heavily invested in Nigeria’s political development, my concern here is how the events of 2023 could deepen Nigeria’s instability, while hoping an alternative aftermath would avert that dreadful political trajectory. 

For a start, following the Supreme Court verdict, Bola Tinubu is now the de facto and de jure president of Nigeria, leaving aside the philosophical question about the nature of his mandate. However, his presidency sets Nigeria on an unstable political future on two key fronts, both regarding the management of Nigeria’s diversity. This may not matter now, it will at some point. But before we come to that, there’s the more imminent problem of the 2027 presidential election. In one sense, 2027 will be like 2015; in another, it won’t. In both senses, 2027 will be acutely challenging. Here’s why.

Take the similarities first. The 2015 presidential election was probably the most turbulent in Nigeria’s recent political history. Metaphorically speaking, the world camped in Nigeria. The UN Secretary-General, EU leaders and US president put Nigeria on a “suicide watch”, begging then President Goodluck Jonathan and General Muhammadu Buhari not to set the country on fire. President Barack Obama even addressed Nigerians directly in a broadcast, invoking the civil war slogan: “To keep Nigeria one is a task that must be done.” Everyone feared that what happened in 2011 when over 800 died in post-election violence after Buhari lost to Jonathan would pale into insignificance in comparison with what might happen in 2015.

Truth is, 2027 will be as turbulent as 2015. Well, because of 2023. Thanks to 2023, it’s now clear that the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, enjoys irrebuttable presumption of regularity in the sense that it can, in any presidential election, break its own promises, ignore the use of technologies, do what it likes and get away with it. We now know what “Go to court” means after INEC has declared someone “president-elect”. We now know the Supreme Court will never remove a sitting president, however deeply flawed his election. In future, any “losing” presidential candidate who launches an election petition would simply be wasting his time. Given all the above, 2027 will be stormy. Concerns about rigging and abuse of incumbency will heighten tension. INEC won’t be trusted and “peace accords” would be perfunctory. In those respects, 2027 will mimic the tension-laden 2015.

But 2027 will also be different from 2015 because while, in the end, 2015 safe-landed, there must be worries about 2027. Why? First, INEC under Professor Mahmood Yakubu is unlike INEC under Professor Attahiru Jega. Rightly, Professor Jega was universally credited with the success of the 2015 presidential poll. Professor Yakubu didn’t deserve and didn’t receive such kudos in 2023 and is unlikely to earn them in 2027. Furthermore, President Jonathan did not interfere with INEC, but few can vouch for Tinubu, who is already populating INEC with his party’s members and loyalists. Recently, Professor Jega was so concerned about the creeping politicisation of INEC that he urged Tinubu to “review” his “partisan” appointments as Resident Electoral Commissioners, RECs, saying “it’s not too late”. 

Tinubu is not Jonathan in another respect. While Jonathan repeatedly said in 2015 that “my ambition is not worth the blood of any Nigerian”, Tinubu’s self-declared philosophy is “to snatch power and run with it at all costs.” Thus, anyone who thinks that, regardless of his performance, regardless of opposition coalition, Tinubu will surrender power in 2027 is not reading the signs. His foot soldiers are already gearing up for that battle. That’s why 2027 may be as turbulent as 2015 without the happy denouement.

But if the imminent tempestuousness of the 2027 presidential election is terrifying enough, the longer term deepening instability and disunity caused by the mismanagement of Nigeria’s diversity must truly trouble all patriotic Nigerians. By mismanagement of Nigeria’s diversity, I am referring to the impact of Tinubu’s presidency on religious and ethnic cohesion and harmony in Nigeria, and the deepening schisms that such will engender.

Take religious diversity. General Murtala Muhammed, the late military head of state, famously propounded the 50-50 formula, as a conventional wisdom, that Christians and Muslims are, more or less, equally populated in Nigeria. According to that convention, neither religion is dominant over the other. Consequently, since the Murtala Muhammed regime, except under the Buhari-Idiagbon junta, there has been heightened sensitivity to the conventional wisdom such that if there was a Muslim head of state, there would be a Christian deputy, and vice versa. Tinubu self-interestedly violated that convention, using the ill-fated Abiola-Kingibe aberration as his political lodestone. However much some may dismiss it, that relegation of Christianity to second-class status is consequential.

But another violation of the 50-50 formula portends even graver consequences. Under democratic rule, Nigerian presidency has alternated between Christians and Muslims. President Umaru Yar’ Adua succeeded President Olusegun Obasanjo; President Jonathan succeeded President Yar’ Adua; President Buhari succeeded President Jonathan. Again, Tinubu defied that convention; he’s the first Muslim civilian president to succeed another Muslim civilian president. Even more troubling, his presidency will entrench Islamic leadership in Nigeria for decades. If he does two terms, power will return to a Northern-Muslim president for two terms. Thus, by 2039, Nigeria would have been under a Muslim president for 24 consecutive years, counting from Buhari’s first term. It’s hard to see how Nigeria can be stable under such a prolonged Islamic leadership.

Which brings us to ethnic diversity. Tinubu’s presidency will also prolong the Igbo’s sojourn in the political wilderness. By 2039, after a putative two-term Tinubu presidency, succeeded by a two-term Northern president, there would have been no president of Igbo extraction for 40 years since 1999. After the civil war ended in 1970, General Yakubu Gowon proclaimed the three Rs: Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Reconciliation. Today, the Igbo are still not fully integrated into Nigeria. Whatever their achievements elsewhere, they have a subordinate status politically. That’s not sustainable.

Tinubu put his personal ambition above Nigeria’s ethnic and religious sensitivities. Now that he has achieved that ambition, he can’t escape the complex reality of Nigeria’s diversity.

*Dr. Fasan is a commentator on public issues