How 2023 Will Affect Nigeria’s Political Stability For Decades

By Olu Fasan

Nigerians, it seems, have moved on from the political events of 2023. Some are already talking about, others planning for, 2027. But the thoughtful and perceptive will not easily forget 2023. For the events of that year will have far-reaching consequences that could unsettle Nigeria for decades. As someone who is heavily invested in Nigeria’s political development, my concern here is how the events of 2023 could deepen Nigeria’s instability, while hoping an alternative aftermath would avert that dreadful political trajectory. 

For a start, following the Supreme Court verdict, Bola Tinubu is now the de facto and de jure president of Nigeria, leaving aside the philosophical question about the nature of his mandate. However, his presidency sets Nigeria on an unstable political future on two key fronts, both regarding the management of Nigeria’s diversity. This may not matter now, it will at some point. But before we come to that, there’s the more imminent problem of the 2027 presidential election. In one sense, 2027 will be like 2015; in another, it won’t. In both senses, 2027 will be acutely challenging. Here’s why.

University Academics, Election Miasma And Other Matters

 By Ighodalo Clement Eromosele

Desirous to enhance the credibility of the 2015 general elections, the Chairman of Independent Electoral Commission, then Professor Attahiru Jega, invited university academics including Vice-Chancellors to participate in the various processes – collation and announcement – of election results. 

This national assignment was in consonance with one of the tripodal duties of the academic namely, community service, the others being teaching and research. It was, apriori, anchored also on the general belief, over the years, that in the pristine traditions of the academia, the academic is incorruptible and will not lend him/herself to unethical practices without consequences. Further, the academic in taking on the assignment was expected to exercise sound judgment, without fear or favour on matters as may arise in the course of duty.

New ‘Currency’, New Census: Buhari’s Desperate Quest For A Legacy

 By Olu Fasan

For most of his seven-and-a-half years in office to date, President Muhammadu Buhari ran Nigeria with such insouciance that suggested he didn’t care about a legacy. However, as the inevitability of leaving office on May 29 next year hits home, Buhari has shown a minute-to-midnight desperation for “legacy projects.”

Two such “projects” are “redesigning” the naira notes and conducting a population census. But by politicising such issues, he undermines them. To start with, my view is that President Buhari has, so far, no legacy that can endure through time. Economists use the term “value for money” to refer to something that is well worth the money spent on it.

Vote Buying As Clear And Present Danger

 By Nick Dazang

Shortly after Professor Attahiru Jega assumed office as the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, in June 2010, his first major outing was a visit to the INEC state headquarters office in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital. By the same token, shortly after Professor Mahmood Yakubu was inaugurated as INEC Chairman on October 21, 2015,  he replicated Professor Jega’s pilgrimage with modifications.

He visited the South-West geopolitical zone, by beginning with a tour of the INEC state headquarters office in Ibadan, Oyo State.

*Voting day in Nigeria 

After receiving a rousing welcome by the Oyo State INEC officials, the media savvy Professor Yakubu flagged off a visit of media houses in the zone with a robust engagement with the editorial board of Tribune Newspapers at Imalefalafia, Ibadan. One of the issues raised by a member of the Tribune editorial board was how Professor Yakubu intended to address the scourge of of vote-buying and selling also known popularly in the South-West as “see and buy”.

At the time of this engagement, the menace of vote-buying and selling was as inchoate as Professor Yakubu was new to the Commission. Therefore, Professor Yakubu requested that the said editorial board member elaborate on what he meant. An election cycle down the line and the conduct of many off-season governorship elections and a legion of bye-elections under his belt and watch, the phenomenon of vote-buying and selling has since assumed the proportion of a clear and present danger to our electoral process.

From what stakeholders have witnessed recently during the conduct of the FCT Area Council Elections to the presidential primaries and the conduct of the Ekiti and Osun governorship elections, vote-buying and selling have become rampant and commonplace. Whereas vote-buying and selling were carried out in the full glare of observers and the media during the FCT Area Council Elections and recipients were liberally rewarded with Naira notes,  the currency of vote-buying in the presidential primaries morphed from the Naira to the Dollar, with deleterious consequences to the economy and the electoral process.

Following the token arrests of perpetrators of the act by anti-corruption agencies during the conduct of the Ekiti governorship election, the perpetrators, who are our own version of geniuses of travesty, have contrived other means. Votes were reportedly bought in lieu of the Osun governorship election days ahead either by direct cash or by way of offerings or gifts. Rather than display thumb printed ballots, following the prohibition of android phones at voting cubicles, commitments were extracted during the Osun governorship election through vouchers by agents who then proceeded to take care of complicit persons who voted for their preferred candidates.

Instead of playing by the rules as enunciated by the Constitution and Electoral Act, thereby upholding the sanctity of the electoral process and putting our democracy on an enviable keel, our unscrupulous politicians seem to excel in gaming the system. Each time INEC plugs a loophole created by them, they proceed, with frenetic zeal,  to create new ones. The upshot of their prolific negative genius is clear: they imperil and make nonsense of the onerous efforts of the Commission to sanitise the electoral process and to deliver wholesome elections which reflect the true and genuine wishes of the Nigerian people.

My fear- and indeed that of most stakeholders in the electoral process- is that if vote-buying and selling  are left unchecked and untrammeled, they will not only torpedo and undermine the integrity of the electoral process, they will rubbish all the gains and reforms which INEC and its partners have fought for and instituted over more than one decade.

Vote-buying promotes the outright sale of political office to the highest bidder. It brings diminishment and devaluation to political power which ought to be sacred and hallowed. And when or where a deep pocket buys political office he will either covet or abuse it. He will seldom deploy it to uplifting ends. At best he will obsess himself with recovering his “investment”. At worst he will enrich himself with a view to further perpetuating himself in office. In this sordid scenario or circumstance, good governance and delivery of democracy dividends are the first casualties.

 The office holder is not obligated to deliver them. The voter who has exchanged his birthright for a miserable dish of pottage loses the moral high ground from which to hold such an office holder to account. We have arrived at a sorry pass on account of bad governance and the arrogance and betrayal of the political class. Should we compound our woes by selling our votes and condemning ourselves and our children to untold and continuous suffering and servitude?

To rise to the challenge of vote-buying and selling, INEC has had to expand its Interagency Consultative Committee on Elections Security, ICCES, by co-opting the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Commission, ICPC. In response to the threat of vote-buying, the two anti-corruption agencies made a few arrests during the conduct of the Ekiti and Osun  governorship elections. 

But given the widespread manner in which vote-buying reportedly took place in the said elections, the arrests were at best niggardly. The arrests pale in significance when compared with the large number of alleged perpetrators. As if the arrests were not significant enough, we are yet to hear of the prosecution and sentencing of perpetrators by our courts in what appear to be open and shut cases.

As the Election Management Body, EMB, and, therefore, the chief driver of our elections, INEC has a responsibility to insist that those apprehended are prosecuted to the full extent of the law. INEC should upscale its voter education, underscoring to voters the danger which vote-buying and selling constitute to our democracy and good governance. 

INEC and the anti- corruption agencies should be proactive and anticipate in advance the shenanigans and tricks deployed by politicians to buy votes and to stop them in their tracks. In addition to being on top of their game,  subsequent arrests of perpetrators of vote-buying should not be limited to the minions.

Arrests should be extended to their high-profile sponsors. Beyond these, INEC must work with other stakeholders to ensure the establishment of the Electoral Offences Commission and Tribunal ahead of the 2023 general elections. That way we shall have a separate body which remit shall be the apprehension and punishment of those who seek to undermine the electoral process. 

This should strengthen the integrity of the electoral process and divest INEC of the legion of responsibilities with which it is saddled and for which it has limited resources to discharge. The establishment of the Electoral Offences Commission and Tribunal will also help check impunity in the electoral process and further improve the quality of our elections.

*Dazang is a former director in INEC (nickdazang@gmail.com)

Whither Nigeria?

 By Odia Ofeimun

Each time it was discovered that the ship of state was foundering, without compass, and no one seemed to have a handle on how to navigate with a proper goal-orientation, the question, Whither Nigeria?, has been asked as a way of giving expression to where we are as a country, where we are going or where we should be going. Mostly, the issues have emerged from trying to think beyond the scramble by the various nationalities in the country. In a multi-ethnic society, reality tends to be resolved around levels of perception in the practice of governance.  

                *Odia Ofeimun 

I am interested in how we’ve been fixed by history, and how we’ve always managed to have so many unresolved issues, so embarrassingly many, even now, when the most intense marker of dissension in the Nigerian firmament is the Boko Haram Insurgency in the North-East which has sought many times, unsuccessfully, to declare a Caliphate over parts of the country. Take the other issue around MASSOB (Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra) and the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB). They have raised the Biafran secessionist flag contentiously and ambitiously over what used to be the Eastern Region. Successive Federal Governments have pursued them with punitive measures as if the civil war of 1967-70 did not quite come to an end. Now, look, the clouds are gathering, as fractions of the Yoruba, at home and in the Diaspora, are angling for a secessionist binge of their own, unless, as it is stressed, ethnic nationalities are allowed to become self-governing within the Nigerian Federation.

The Many Lies Of John Paden, Buhari's Biographer

By Reno Omokri

The book Muhammadu Buhari-The Challenges of Leadership in Nigeria  by Professor John Paden is not only an intellectually lazy work, it is also a fallacious document hastily put together to paint the protagonist in the borrowed garb of an effective leader who is cleaning the Augean Stable of misrule and corruption in Nigeria, but my question is this - how can you fight corruption with lies?

President Buhari, his wife, Aisha, Gowon and Prof Paden

I have taken my time to x-ray the book and I cannot help but agree with the national leader of the ruling All Progressive Congress that Paden has done a great disservice to the truth. If I were Paden, I would consider a career in fiction writing. His talents are much better suited for that than to scholarly and investigative work.

On page 52 of the book, Professor Paden declares that Dr. Goodluck Jonathan declared for the April 2011 Presidential election on Saturday, 18th of September 2011. 

But for a man who was a Rhodes scholar at Oxford University, Paden did not show much scholarliness because if he did, he would have established that Dr. Jonathan made world history by being the first ever Presidential candidate to make his declaration on the social media platform, facebook, on Wednesday the 15th of September, 2016, a feat which was featured on the New York Times, the Washington Post and in several international news media. 

If this was the only error in the book, one could forgive Paden, but the errors go on and on. 

For example on page 53, Paden, without citing any proof or evidence, called Dr. Jonathan's margin of victory in the South south and Southeast 'nonsensical', but then he goes ahead to accept President Buhari's margin of victory in the North as valid even though they mirrored Dr. Jonathan's margins in the South.

On page 55, Paden called to question Jonathan's handling of the economy but then in page 60 he admits that the 7% GNP growth Nigeria attained under Jonathan was "impressive". Does Paden suffer from a split personality? Here he is calling into question former President Jonathan's ability to manage an economy that he himself admits generated an impressive growth yet he is praising a President Buhari under whom Nigeria has gone into recession. I don't get it Paden! 

Perhaps Paden should have written a book singing Jonathan's praises instead of President Buhari's!

Then he attacks Dr. Jonathan in page 55 over the 2012 attempt to remove fuel subsidies and pointed to the street protests that broke out in reaction, but curiously failed to mention that such protests were instigated and led by the then opposition members including President Buhari's former running mate, Pastor Tunde Bakare, who was openly at the fore front of the protests and Malam Nasir Elrufai, who coordinated activities during the Occupy Nigeria protests. This is nothing short of intellectual dishonesty.

The Fraud Called ‘Jega Elections’

By Ikechukwu Amaechi
Attahiru Jega, a professor of political science and immediate past chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), is a very lucky Nigerian. He is one of those fluky human beings the Scripture tells us are blessed because their sins are covered. He remains the only INEC chairman to “successfully” organise two national elections – in 2011 and 2015.
 

*Jega,Osinbajo and Buhari

For a job that has become the nemesis of most otherwise solid reputations, Jega left office with his intact. Today, he is hailed in some quarters as the best thing that has happened to Nigeria’s democracy since 1999.
He left office on June 30, 2015 to return to his lecturing job at Bayero University, Kano, where he was vice chancellor before his appointment in June 2010 by former President Goodluck Jonathan.

That was after he had disclosed in March that he would not accept tenure renewal. Had he wanted, perhaps, he would still be INEC chairman today.
Shortly after leaving office, Jega, former national president of the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU), won the 2015 edition of the Charles T. Mannat Democracy Award.

It was presented to him by the United States-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), administrators of the award, at an elaborate ceremony in Washington D.C. on September 29, 2015.
Every year, IFES, a pro-democracy organisation that advocates improved electoral systems around the world, recognises the accomplishments of individuals in advancing freedom and democracy by bestowing awards on them in honour of past chairs of its board of directors: Charles T. Manatt and Patricia Hutar, and Senior Adviser, Joe C. Baxter.

While Jega was honoured under the Charles T. Manatt Democracy Award category, it is instructive that his co-awardees were U.S. Democratic Leader, Nancy Pelosi, and Republican Congressman, Ed Royce.
Jega was chosen as the international figure for the award, according to the promoters, for leading the INEC to conduct what they perceived as one of the most credible elections in Nigeria’s history, even in the face of alleged intimidation and sabotage by some of his own staff and officials of the Jonathan administration.

Dying For Nothing In Nigeria

By Ugochukwu Ejinkeonye

During the governorship and states’ houses of assembly elections that took place in Nigeria last Saturday (April 11, 2015), several persons reportedly died across the nation. As I write now, a day after the elections, there are reports of raging battles in a couple of states. What it is most likely to boil down to is that some other people will also foolishly waste their lives like some others before them before the smoke of the senseless war clears.

Now, apart from any hapless individual who was “accidentally discharged” by some habitually reckless and trigger-happy cop or someone caught in the crossfire as rival political groups clashed and unleashed violence on each other, all the others killed during this election while fighting “political wars” died for nothing. They died for nothing because they counted themselves as nothing, hence they could waste their precious lives fighting for mostly common thieves or glorified thugs striving to become governors or “honourable” members of the house of assembly so that they can plunder the resources of the state and cart away as much loot as they can before their tenure expires.

What beats me is how a human being could devalue his life so much that he could expose that life to serious danger by agreeing to undertake a violent activity on behalf of someone who may not even be informed if he is killed – someone who does not even know him or care whether he lives or dies. Sometimes, all it takes to motivate these misguided combatants would just be a few crumpled naira notes, some bottles of beer or gin and poorly produced T-shirts bearing the faces of the fellows who they have been hired to fight and die for. Most of the time, he does not even have the slightest hint of   contact with these his “ardent supporters.” Or if he does, it may just be to come out in front of his house or step out of his luxury car at some other place to address and charge them to be prepared to lay down their lives to ensure that only the “credible candidate” (himself) wins the election “for the good of the state”.      

Obasanjo’s Belated Distaste For Corruption

By Ugochukwu Ejinkeonye

A few hours after the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof Attahiru Jega, told Nigerians that General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress (APC) has won the March 28, 2015 Presidential Elections, a former head of state, General Olusegun Obasanjo, released his congratulatory letter to Buhari. In it, he told Buhari, among other things, to rid “our land of corruption”  

*Obasanjo

“With so much harm already done to many national institutions including the military, which proudly nurtured you and me, you will have a lot to do on institution reform, education, healthcare, economy, security, infrastructure, power, youth employment, agribusiness, oil and gas, external affairs, cohesiveness of our nation and ridding our land of corruption,” Obasanjo wrote in the six-paragraph letter.

It was the season of victory celebrations and hastening to identify with victors, so, such outpour of sentiments were not unexpected, even from very suspicious and grossly unqualified quarters. We live in a country of pathetic denialists, where the citizens are in such a hurry to forget and the media finds the ennobling task of asking deep questions and reminding us of even our most recent past a very tiresome and undesirable task.

And so, in such a country, persons like Obasanjo who deployed enormous zeal and determination to wreak unqualified damage to their country can afford to rewrite recent history and brazenly crown and advertise themselves as heroes and  patriots. And our largely pathetic media would eagerly join, if not lead, the celebration of this unsightly dance in the slimy pond of egregious hypocrisy and mediocrity.   

2015 Elections: Should Attahiru Jega Get A Pat On The Back?

By Ugochukwu Ejinkeonye

Professor Attahiru Jega, the Chairman of the Independent Electoral National Commission (INEC) lost my trust when he insisted on going ahead to conduct the 2015 elections on February 14, 2015, even when it was very clear to every sincere human being that the commission was not ready for the elections.

*Prof Attahiru Jega

Millions of the Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) ordered by INEC had at that time not even been supplied, let alone distributed to prospective voters. And this meant that about 34% percent of registered voters in Nigeria stood the risk of being disenfranchised. Yet, Jega was out there telling the world that he was ready for the elections, and that he was only being compelled to postpone them by the information transmitted to him by the security chiefs that within the next six weeks, they would be too preoccupied with the fight to finally flush out the Boko Haram fighters from the North-East, and so would not be able to provide adequate security for the polls.

Not even the card readers which have proved to be a major spoiler in the just concluded presidential and national assembly elections were ready for use by February 14. INEC’s lack of preparedness was writ large everywhere yet in his every speech, Jega was assuring Nigerians that he was set for the elections. But as we have all seen now, despite the whole six weeks extension INEC eventually got, the shoddy manner of last Saturday’s polls is a clear demonstration that had the elections held on February 14 as Jega had stubbornly insisted with the active, enthusiastic support of the All Progressive Congress (APC), it would have been a monumental disaster.