Full Text Of Peter Obi's CNN Interview With Zane Asher

 

Zane Asher: Mr. Obi thank you so much for being with us. You're certainly the most popular presidential candidate among young people in Nigeria, there's so much momentum behind you. But here's the problem. Nigerians are used to being disappointed by their leaders, and what do you think about some of the problems that are facing the country right now, they are systemic. I'm talking about the corruption, I'm talking about oil theft, I'm talking about insecurity, I'm talking about the fiscal hole that Nigeria is in right now. Can all of that really be solved by one person? 

Peter Obi: Well, if you have a leader that is competent, has the capacity and commitment to start dealing with these challenges, you're not going to solve it overnight, but there will be a clear, visible, measurable attempt to deal with these. And there is nothing that is not solvable. Some issues just have to be dealt with decisively. But you need to have a capable leader such that when you look at his past records in office, you can say YES – He is capable. 

Why Nigeria’s Economic Recovery Is Slowing Down

By Mazi Sam Ohuabunwa

Ordinarily there should be so much going for Nigeria’s economy. Production of crude oil at about 2 million barrels per day at a good price of about 70 dollars per barrel is yielding good foreign exchange for the Nation, helping to boost foreign reserves which today stand at about 47.25 Billion dollars. Inflation has continued to decline steadily over several months coming to the current level of 11.4% as the CBN and its MPC retain monetary policy index at a tight stance.

*President Buhari and Finance Minister Adeosun 

 Also some great effort is being made at the economic management level to pursue the Nigeria Economic Recovery and Growth   plan( NERGP). Additionally, some improved liquidity has been noticed in terms of funding Nigeria’s infrastructure projects, combining oil revenue,tax heist with a large dose of debt from sundry sources.

Selling National Assets To Fund 2018 Budget: Signs Of The End For Nigeria

By Arthur Agwuncha Nwankwo
Nigeria is in serious difficulty now as never before. This assertion may not be politically correct but certainly it is empirically correct. Irrespective of your political leaning, truth is that Nigeria is in dire straits. Since Nigeria’s political independence, many people have doubted the capacity of the leadership to take Nigeria to safe shores.

This pessimism is anchored on the fact that some of our leaders, even from pre-independent times, demonstrated obvious incapacity to offer genuine leadership. This leadership deficit was worsened by the forceful intrusion of the military into political leadership of the country; the worst period being from 1983 when Muhammadu Buhari and his fellow coupists overthrew Shagari’s administration to 1999 when the northern-dominated military cabal ran the country aground in a relay-like manner. Nigeria’s economy was irreparably destroyed, and corruption was entrenched as an article of faith in the governance process.

Suicidal Defence Of The Naira

By Henry Boyo

The awareness of the correlation between lower naira exchange rates and increasing poverty motivated the “Save the Naira, Save Nigerians!” by-line in articles in this column since 2004. Despite the obvious debilitating impact of Naira devaluation on inflation, domestic industries, employment and social welfare, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), recently, brazenly   declared that it deliberately devalued the naira from below N120/$1 to almost N150/$1; regretably CBN, by this act, declared a war against our welfare.

 The apex bank however, countered that devaluation was necessary to stabilize the economy and ensure that monthly naira allocations matched the projected 2009 expenditure budget. I daresay, however, that such a fiscal strategy is counterproductive; Instructively, the resultant bloated Naira allocations will still be inadequate to cover recurrent and capital expenditure which were earlier projected with at least 25% stronger naira values.

When the folly of this strategy ultimately dawned on our monetary policy makers, the CBN Governor quickly recanted and later alleged that, the devaluation was in fact, the handiwork of speculators!!   Now, let us examine his claim. The first pertinent question is, how speculators accumulated almost N2,000bn between October and November 2008 to exchange for $7bn plus from CBN?   Indeed, prior to the alleged deliberate devaluation, the monetary authorities, reportedly held internal consultations and sought President Yar Adua and National Economic Council’s approval; inevitably, prominent Nigerians with interest in banks became consequently privy to the dastardly blow awaiting the naira!

Curiously, despite the very late budget passage in October 2008, and the parallel delay in capital projects execution, the Federal Executive Council, nonetheless, authorized 100% release of all outstanding budget provisions, not minding that with Sallah, Xmas and New Year- holidays imminent, there were barely seven weeks left to 31st December 2008 to complete projects which should normally take 12 months for implementation.

Invariably, with the subsisting embarrassingly surplus Naira Liquidity, and the open secret of an imminent Naria devaluation, the banks besieged CBN with demands for unusually large dollar purchases, which they would later sell with huge profit after devaluation.

Widening Gap Between Official, Black Market Exchange Rates

By Henri Boyo

 In December 2016, the finance minister Mrs. Kemi Adeosun responded as follows in a text message to Reuters reporters that, “The CBN is working on the elimination of arbitrage.” Furthermore, Isaac Okorafor, CBN’s spokesperson, confirmed in a press statement that the bank was working towards “ensuring there is no black market,” see Punch 21/12/16.

In January, 2017,  the Vice President Yemi Osibanjo speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland also noted that “The CBN needs to close the gap between the official and black market exchange rates for the naira “very soon”, see Punch 18/01/2017.

Furthermore, the Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu was also reported in Punch Newspaper edition of 19/01/17 to have noted that: “We are worried with the huge gap between the parallel and the official market; and as it has been said by the Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, the Central Bank of Nigeria needs to do something about it, because it is one thing that is breeding corruption …. We must find a way of bridging that gap and also stabilize the exchange rate so that investors can do their own forecast in terms of their investments. We believe that something needs to be done in the area of the exchange rate.”

The above title was first published in September 2005 and the following is a summary of that article:

“The appropriate pricing of the naira, has been a subject of debate in the last 25 years.  During this period, the value has descended from more than parity to its current rate of about N129=$1.  We recall that in those days of glory, the general standard of living was well above the poverty level; indeed, Nigeria was rated among middle income countries in the world. However, our leaders soon succumbed to the apparently innocuous campaign that the naira was grossly overvalued.  The success of that campaign is the current reality of a naira that has lost over 90% of its value and reduced the real value of the earnings of the masses to peanuts. We are now rated amongst the world’s poorest nations to the satisfaction of our erstwhile oppressors, who have in a show of charity gleefully dropped a few coins in our begging bowls to now save us from outright starvation! 

Mr. President, There’s Blood On The Dance Floor

By Seyi Olu Awofeso  

Dear President Muhammadu Buhari: One reason the joys of electing you as president abruptly stopped is because there’s now blood on the dance floor. You alone have to decide if to call off the party or mop the dance floor; but either way, you’ll need spatial awareness of why bleeding occurred to spoil the party.

*Buhari 

You stoked price vectors to let the inflation genie out of the bottle and then burnt up Nigerians’ cash assets with 68% Naira devaluation starting in the last week of May, after increasing electricity tariff by 45% in March and after  increasing pump price of petrol by 67% few weeks earlier, to send all things up in the air – with nothing settled as yet; not even Nigeria itself, which badly convulsed in feverish price hikes, country-wide, after reeling for long from rocket-propelled grenades fired by hundreds of militias doubly armed with improvised explosives now rampaging all across Nigeria.

As news of Nigeria’s mounting horrors spread, London’s Evening Standard reported it on September 7:  “Western firms can be forgiven for shying away from investing in Buhari’s Nigeria,” the Evening Standard said – with reasons ranging from untrammeled treasury thefts to your having no clearly seen honest resolve to fight corruption. A slew of foreign investors may as well be closing its files on Nigeria. They are reportedly put off by the way things are going awry.

 Schools crumble in Nigeria without books as hospitals lay bare without imported medicines – all of which can’t be bought at the current price exchange rate of N425 to a Dollar versus the much lower April exchange rate of N260 to one Dollar. Workers are being laid off in thousands and the casualties near 4.5 million Nigerians sacked under your 15-month perplexing regime, according to anecdotal evidence.

Those spared mass sackings are pitch-forked to half salary – in defiance of anything contracts law say on the sanctity of existing agreements in an increasingly anomic Nigeria – where, besides routine beheading on the streets from neighbourhood spats, the Court of Appeal in Lagos division then declared a few weeks ago that wearing the Muslim Hijab head-cover is superior, as Islamic Law, and overrides any other law that a state government may enact as ‘school uniform rule.’

A false bottom for this rather zany declarative order was quickly constructed judicially and called ‘fundamental human rights’…in a country contradictorily self-described in its 1999 Constitution as ‘secular.’ In just under 16 months Nigeria now looks eerily strange – like a horror film – to those looking in from outside.

But to be sure, Nigeria was not as much a puzzle or hardscrabble place as this. Nigeria was, contrarily, a fragile and less horrific and much less hopeless place.  So, what happened to CHANGE, President Buhari? That’s the crux. No two broom-wavers on your APC side of the Nigeria’s party politics divide ever understood what CHANGE means from get-go. In retrospect, it would seem like a mere slogan just thrown in to replace absent thought-process inside the party. It could even be worse. For after you won the election on that abstract sloganeering you alone now have the writ to decide what CHANGE means for a whole nation, since your party members were just carried away by the sound of that word and mindlessly ran to town with it.

Nigeria:Why We Are In This Terrible Mess

By Dan Amor

Once upon a time, there was a young country struggling in the comity of nations to find her place in the sun. For in this young country of brave people, it was discovered that freedom is a God-given right. So impressed were the citizens with this belief that they lit a candle to symbolize their freedom. But, in their wisdom, they knew that the flame could not burn alone. So, they lit a second candle to symbolize man's right to govern himself. The third candle was lighted to signify that the rights of the individual were more important than the rights of the State. And finally, they lit a fourth candle to show that government should not do for the people those things which the people should do for themselves.

*Buhari

As the four candles of freedom burned brightly, the young nation prospered. And as they prospered, they grew fat. And as they grew fat, they got lazy. When they got lazy, they asked the government to do things for them which they had been doing for themselves, and one of the candles went out. As government became bigger, the people became smaller, and the government became all important. And the rights of the individual were sacrificed to the all important rights of the State. Then the second candle went out. In their apathy and indifference, they asked those who bear armour to govern them, and the marshals of the commandist clan did, and the third candle went off. In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security, a comfortable life, and they lost all - comfort and security and freedom.

For, you see! When the freedom they wanted most was freedom from responsibility, then Nigerians ceased to be free. The last candle has been extinguished. One could assume, then, that we have it made. Never have any people at any time, anywhere, had it so good. But in our present abundance and luxury in the galaxy of power, something is wrong. People aren't happy. They no longer walk down the streets of our cities smiling or whistling a happy tune. There is discontent, and one can sense the fear of the unknown. Everywhere, the people are grumbling, cursing, jeering and hooting. 

Nigerians are jittery. There seems to be a tarnish on our golden Mecca. We've created a new breed of men and women who can't work but loot, just like we've created a new breed of men and women who crave for power for the sake of it. You had an opportunity to turn the nation to an Eldorado, but you supervised the mindless looting of our national patrimony into private pockets. You wailed and roared and were given the power, but you're seeing it as an opportunity to favour your tribesmen at the expense of others and you're still enmeshed in blame game while the country is bleeding. And, instead of the slogan, "God bless Nigeria", all we now hear is, "Let us go our separate ways". The signs aren't too hard to read. They are the signs of internal decay - the dry rot of apathy and indifference.

Nigerian Economy: The Blind Leading The Blind

By Henry Boyo

A seemingly responsible fiscal plan will become unimplementable, in the modern era, if the underlying monetary indices are out of sync with budget projections. Conversely, the stubborn sustenance of appropriate monetary benchmarks for inflation, cost of funds and exchange rate may still rescue the performance of an otherwise bad budget.

*Buhari 

 Buhari For example, if salaries and other incomes double or triple summarily, as happened during the Udoji salary awards of the 70’s, prices will spiral beyond the comfort level of consumers, as the liberal Naira supply chase the relatively modest output of goods and services on offer. Evidently, if inflation rate for example, approaches 20%, as in our present predicament, then we would all have lost a fifth of the purchasing power of our salaries and incomes.   

The dwindling purchasing power caused by inflation will invariably erode consumer demand for goods and services, and also constrain domestic industrial output, while further investment decisions will ultimately be kept on hold. Thus, in addition to a significant loss in real income values and deepening social poverty, an uncontrolled inflationary spiral will severely challenge the implementation of any fiscal plan that does not accommodate the prevailing rate of inflation; for example, the clearly recklessly ambitious 2016 N6tn budget, has become difficult to implement because of reduced revenue and significant Naira devaluation that has increased local production cost and further spurred inflation closer to 20%.

 For the above reasons, Central Banks, in successful economies everywhere, endeavor to sustain strategies that will keep money supply at an equilibrium level that will not push inflation rate beyond say 3-4%, so as to conserve price stability. Similarly, if foreign exchange is in short supply and auctioned in a market where Naira supply is constantly in excess, the local currency will, invariably depreciate in value, and also make all imports (including industrial raw materials) correspondingly more expensive. Furthermore, the competitiveness of local enterprise will become even more seriously challenged, if CBN’s MPC decides to counter inflationary pressures by increasing the rates at which commercial banks borrow from the CBN to as high as 14-16% as per their recent position in July 2016.

The preceding narrative hopefully explains the need for best practice management of money supply to avert the disenabling and distortional consequences of spiraling inflation in the economy. Clearly, horrendous inflation rates above 20% will seriously challenge any attempt to diversify any economy or foster inclusive economic growth. Indeed, if the inflation rate remains untamed, the Naira’s purchasing power will become seriously diminished and the N1000 note may ultimately be worth less than a dollar. Price stability is threatened and the economy will invariably underperform whenever the CBN readily admits its unending engagement in a very costly battle against perceived systemic surplus Naira.

So the critical questions should therefore be, what causes the evidently systemic excess Naira liquidity and why is CBN losing the battle to wrestle inflation to best practice rates below, say 4% and protect our incomes and industries. Naira supply will obviously increase if government continuously prints more Naira or borrows heavily without caution to fund its budget, as clearly demonstrated in the 2016 budget structure. Furthermore, Naira supply also increases inordinately, whenever government’s forex receipts are directly substituted with fresh Naira supply as allocations, while CBN keeps and auctions the dollars. Fortunately, the CBN also has the option to modulate money supply by establishing appropriate cash levels which banks must retain in relation to their assets.

Management Of The Nigerian Economy

By Dave Nwogbo  
The mismanagement of the Nigerian economy is an ominous exercise that will continue to provoke debates, controversies and analyses. The mismanagement has unleashed horrendous consequences on the life of Nigerians. The economy occupies a central and overarching position in the lives of the populace. It was in recognition of the primacy of material conditions that Karl Marx postulated the theory of dialectical materialism in which he asserted that economic relations are the major determining factor that shape social and political relations.

For over five decades, the Nigerian economy has suffered a chequered history. The ineptitude of the leadership elite in being unable to transform the economy is exemplified by its lack of vision, creativity and pragmatism. Neoliberalism was designed as a mechanism to engender the growth of economies through market determinism that is predicated on competition and efficiency in the allocation of resources. Regrettably, neoliberalism has compounded the economic woes of the populace, and the government has not introduced remedial measures to cushion the effect of the hardship it imposed on the people.

Sadly, whereas the people are consistently and unconscionably being called upon to make the necessary sacrifices by bearing the brunt of this management, they have nothing to show for the interminable streams of sacrifices which they have made over the years. This anomaly points to one thing: the populace pay the costly price for leadership and policy failures, and the governing elite does not give a damn. As it were, the populace have no stake in the Nigerian economy.

The recent increase in the price of petrol to N145 per litre demonstrates the inconsistency in government policies. Successive administrations increased the price of petrol sustained by the same mantra of freeing up more money to the government for development. But, in actual fact, has the populace benefitted from any increase in the pump price of petrol? What the populace have consistently witnessed over the years are increasing poverty rate, irregular power supply, unprecedented corruption, etc. What is new about the 2016 budget that will check the pitfalls of previous budgets since 1999, and will guarantee the efficiency of government spending?

In other words, is there any guarantee that under President Buhari, the efficiency of government expenditure has improved considerably and that for every one naira that is spent, at least 60k value will be realised? Changing the decadent system which President Buhari inherited and to which he has committed to revamping, is a herculean task which is not going to come easy. In spite of the campaign against corruption, corruption in Nigeria is still endemic and pervasive. Who are the perpetrators and perpetuators of corruption? As long as there is no elite consensus on the need to fight corruption, curbing corruption will be difficult. From every indication, it appears that only President Buhari is committed to fighting corruption. How many ministers have publicly declared their assets? How many governors have publicly declared their assets, etc? Fighting corruption will entail a systemic reinvigoration of the existing institutions and government agencies.

Given the foregoing background, is there any guarantee that the present attempt to partially deregulate the downstream sector of the oil industry will achieve the desired result? Yes, with deregulation, the prices of petrol may fall in future, but is there any guarantee that money saved from the subsidy removal will address the challenges of development facing the people?

The Buhari administration has taken a revolutionary step in addressing the challenges of the downstream sector of the Nigerian economy. Will the adminstration go the whole hog in addressing the challenges of the Nigerian economy by shifting its emphasis away from the prevalent culture of consumption to an investment-based and productive economy, where the few who parasite on the economy are restrained from their excesses? Will President Buhari be concerned about reducing inequality and enunciating an economic framework that will make the populace the stakeholders of the economy? What will President Buhari do to check the increasing cost of governance in which 80% of government revenues are spent on recurrent expenditure, especially on government officials? Addressing the challenges of the Nigerian economy requires revolutionary measures.