By
Henry Boyo
The
awareness of the correlation between lower naira exchange rates and increasing
poverty motivated the “Save the Naira,
Save Nigerians!” by-line in articles in this column since 2004. Despite the
obvious debilitating impact of Naira devaluation on inflation, domestic
industries, employment and social welfare, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN),
recently, brazenly declared that it deliberately devalued the naira from
below N120/$1 to almost N150/$1; regretably CBN, by this act, declared a war
against our welfare.
When the folly of this strategy ultimately
dawned on our monetary policy makers, the CBN Governor quickly recanted and
later alleged that, the devaluation was in fact, the handiwork of
speculators!! Now, let us examine his claim. The first pertinent
question is, how speculators accumulated almost N2,000bn between October and
November 2008 to exchange for $7bn plus from CBN? Indeed, prior to
the alleged deliberate devaluation, the monetary authorities, reportedly held
internal consultations and sought President Yar Adua and National Economic
Council’s approval; inevitably, prominent Nigerians with interest in banks
became consequently privy to the dastardly blow awaiting the naira!
Curiously, despite the very late budget passage
in October 2008, and the parallel delay in capital projects execution, the
Federal Executive Council, nonetheless, authorized 100% release of all
outstanding budget provisions, not minding that with Sallah, Xmas and New Year-
holidays imminent, there were barely seven weeks left to 31st December 2008 to
complete projects which should normally take 12 months for implementation.
Invariably, with the subsisting embarrassingly
surplus Naira Liquidity, and the open secret of an imminent Naria devaluation,
the banks besieged CBN with demands for unusually large dollar purchases, which
they would later sell with huge profit after devaluation.
Alarmingly, the CBN willingly, ‘bravely’
matched the obviously the bogus dollar demand between October/November with
over $7bn from reserves; in contrast, between January and September 2008, the
CBN sold less than $5 billion to the same banks. Ironically, after $7bn plus
had bolted from Nigerian’s reserves, CBN shut the barn door and banks were
belatedly instructed to only bid for foreign exchange, specifically for their
customers; meanwhile official dollar sales to Bureau De Change (BDCs), still
remained slightly less than the erstwhile unsolicited $3bn monthly allocation
to nebulous BDC customers.
The question is, why did CBN knowingly
gleefully meet the evidently bloated dollar demands of banks between October
and November only to shamelessly thereafter cry wolf! Wolf?, Why would CBN also
blame speculators when it had earlier announced that Naira devaluation
was carefully considered and deliberately implemented to stabilize the economy
and protect our industries? Incidentally, despite several allegations of
commercial banks’ complicity in fostering round tripping and its poisonous
economic impact, so far, heavy penalties or criminal convictions are
rare!
Even when a notable Nigerian bank, like UBA was
indicted and fined $15m in the United States for money laundering, involving
federal government funds irregularly deposited via the controversial “African
Financial Corporation,” no one was brought to book! Furthermore, there is still
no rigorous audit or system to distinguish genuine and spurious dollar bids
from banks; besides, CBN’s deliberate instigation of blatant dollar speculation
in October and November 2008 does not indicate much seriousness to tackle
capital flight or strengthen the naira rate!
The truth is, Naria rate will continue to slide
so long as a constant pool of excess idle Naira floods the market. The question
is how does this burdensome excess naira come about? The answer,
quite simply is that, the market becomes awash with excess naira every month,
when the three-tiers of government receive huge naira allocations. The
resultant extended credit capacity of Money Deposit Banks will invariably
provide surplus naira that dwarf the weekly auctions of dollar rations by CBN
(as was the case in October/November 2008)! However, in recognition of the
serious threat of excess Naira, CBN stepped up the very costly process of
reducing Naria liquidity by borrowing back part of the cash glut created by the
payment of strictly huge naira allocations.
In order to control the Naria glut it earlier
unleashed, the same CBN would auction Treasury bills and bonds with excessive
returns to predominantly the same banks which are the custodians invariably,
such damage control can only be superficial and can never really significantly
tame the naira glut; With this unforced destructive framework, in place,
the CBN is incapable to bring down its own monetary policy rate in line with
international best practice below 3% to stimulate our economy, because of the
fear that loans will become cheaper and the credit capacity of banks will be
further enhanced to sustain further speculative tendencies and unhealthy
consumer lending that will fuel inflation and inflict further pressure on the
naira rate!
Thus, any attempt, by CBN to continue defending
the naira rate with a payments framework that ceaselessly inundates or
replenishes the liquidity base of banks with huge naira allocations every
month, the naira rate will continue to fall while the gap between the official
and parallel market rates will continue to widen; any measures adopted by CBN
to restore sanity will similarly fail. Sadly the era of counter productive and
high-handed exchange controls will return and CBN would have brought us full
circle back to our distressed state over two decades ago after we became
victims of a series of half-baked economic experiments.
However, I have consistently advocated that the
Nigerian economy will right itself and the monetary policy paradoxes,
lately decried by the CBN Governor Prof Soludo will be resolved if the three
tiers of government receive dollar certificates (not raw cash) for the dollar
component of monthly distributable revenue!! This framework is not only
constitutionally correct, it will dispel the enduring burden of excess Naira
liquidity and save us over N300bn annual cost of removing excess naira
liquidity from banks and sterilising these funds in CBN accounts and records.
Interest rates will also fall to single digit to promote industrial recovery
and generate employment; inflation will nosedive; the festering pool of
corruption will diminish and believe it or not, speculation and round tripping
will reduce while the naira rate will appreciate below N100=$1, as increasing
dollar certificates chase closely controlled and limited naira balances in the
money market. A word, they say, is enough for the wise!
*This article was first published on February 16, 2009
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