By Mazi Sam Ohuabunwa
Ordinarily there
should be so much going for Nigeria ’s
economy. Production of crude oil at about 2 million barrels per day at a good
price of about 70 dollars per barrel is yielding good foreign exchange for the
Nation, helping to boost foreign reserves which today stand at about 47.25
Billion dollars. Inflation has continued to decline steadily over several
months coming to the current level of 11.4% as the CBN and its MPC retain monetary
policy index at a tight stance.
*President Buhari and Finance Minister Adeosun |
Yet there was hope that the sustained effort at better
economic management and much more determination to improve our operating
environment, improve the ease of doing business and competitiveness index, the
trajectory of economic recovery would be sustained and may be the long expected
relief would be attained. But recent events in the Nation are threatening to
undermine or stultify much of the efforts made in the management of the economy.
Talking to investors and business men at both local and
international fora recently , I find there is a great deal of apprehension
about what one American investor described as “High dose of Political
uncertainty, weak business environment and scary security concern”. They point
to all the issues that Nigeria is
confronting and accept that there is some evidence that the Nigerian economic
managers are making reasonable efforts to make the economy attractive for
investments. But they point that the problem lies with our politics and
governance.
They feel that our political institutions are being weakened
by the day, pointing to what has been happening between the Executive and the
Legislature. They seemed terribly alarmed by the recent security siege on the
National Assembly and expressed a fear that a weakened or ineffective
legislature would result in a denatured democracy, resulting in a high level of
executive impunity. For them, impunity is a precursor of self help and
lawlessness.
They fear greatly that law and order may break down in Nigeria if
things are allowed to remain as they are with no punishment for those who take
laws in to their hands. They tell of warnings by many of their country
embassies in Nigeria that Nigeria is
becoming a very high risk Country.They are alarmed by the regular killings of
Nigerians by all kinds of non- state actors who seem to have a free
reign,facing little or no consequence. They point to the regular alarms raised
by opposition governors of threats to their lives. Governors Wike and Fayose
had raised alarms in the past and last week Ortom raised similar alarm.
They wonder that if State Governors are so terrified as to
raise alarms over their safety and then other Nigerian Nationals are killed
without much consequences, what would be the fate of non- Nigerians?Many say
they are under tremendous pressure by their families not to visit Nigeria, and
if they must, then they should restrict themselves to Lagos and Abuja only. In
fact many said, they have been asked not to go anywhere in Nigeria by Road except
within Lagos and Abuja metropolis
and even here, it must be with security escort.
Some efforts I made to explain to them, that things may
be bad, but not really as bad as they seemed to perceive, was
rebuffed. Well some of the fears may be over stretched, but we can not deny
that the political shenanigans going on in Nigeria right
now are beginning to take a toll on Nigerians psychologically and in real
terms. In terms of economic out put, it is doubtful if the economy recovery
will not be slowed down by these worries and uncertainties especially in the
months leading to the 2019 elections. Q1 2018 GDP at 1.95% growth declined by
13.4% over Q4 2017.
Hope was that Q2 growth should be stronger than this but that
hope is being challenged and yet we are still about 6-months to the elections.
Some analysts projected a Q2 GDP growth that will be below Q1 growth and this
week, Nigeria ’
Bureau for Statistics confirmed that the economy grew by only 1.5%.
With population growth of nearly 3%, this is bad news.The
analysts had pointed to the stagnation or sluggishness of the Purchasing
Managers Index ( PMI) since April when it reached 56. 9% but declined to 56. 5
%in May, went up to 57% in June before moving back to 56.8% in July. They
project this to indicate a drop in the momentum of productive activities. There
is potential that the economy could take a big hit if efforts are not made to
reduce the political uncertainties and improve governance. We therefore appeal
to our political class to consider the poor and suffering masses of this
country and try and calm down and do what will keep Nigeria in
peace and promote investment and economic well being.
The Party in power particularly has a critical role to play
in lowering the political temperature. They should know that it is their
responsibility to ensure that Nigeria does not derail any further, because they
are the party in power and will take much of the blame should things get really
awry.
Chairman Oshiomhole must temper his rhetoric and work to
engender peace across the lines. Critically the party should discontinue with
its effort to remove Saraki from the Senate Presidency by all means. This
desperation has become a major destabilizing factor in the political
environment and it is helping create much of the political uncertainties in Nigeria .
It has been a three-year battle that must cease now, before
it boils over and cause irreparable damage to Nigeria .
It is only six months to elections and that should give the Country a peaceful
opportunity to change leadership of all arms and tiers of the government
without destroying the economy. Equally important is that we must shield the
economic ministers and managers from politics. Let the politicians do their
partisan manipulations and gerrymandering, but let the economic managers keep
their eyes on the ball, if at all possible.
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