Africa Briefing N°106
Guinea's President Alpha Conde
OVERVIEW
Guinea is due to hold presidential elections in 2015. The
country’s electoral history, the failure of dialogue between the government and
the opposition and the indefinite postponement of local elections originally
scheduled for early 2014 are all bad omens. With a divided political scene
split along ethnic lines, and in the grip of an Ebola epidemic that has
weakened Guinea’s
economy, the government has two options. It can either promote dialogue and
establish a credible framework for the second free presidential election in the
country’s history, a framework that could include a negotiated postponement; or
run the risk of instability and inter-ethnic violence. Given its control of
institutions and the political timetable, it must work with the opposition and
international partners to build minimum consensus on electoral arrangements in
order to reduce the risk of violent protests in the lead up to, during or after
the vote.
Such a consensus must be stronger than the one
reached for the September 2013 legislative elections, held after a delay of
almost three years. Those polls were preceded by fierce controversy and violent
demonstrations. Although the conduct of the vote was peaceful, the opposition
accused the government of fraud and called for the elections to be annulled.
Many foreign observers questioned the integrity of the polls. The government
managed to contain tensions only because the opposition felt that legislative
elections were of secondary importance, and because international partners
mediated between the two sides.
