Guinea's President Alpha Conde
OVERVIEW
Such a consensus must be stronger than the one
reached for the September 2013 legislative elections, held after a delay of
almost three years. Those polls were preceded by fierce controversy and violent
demonstrations. Although the conduct of the vote was peaceful, the opposition
accused the government of fraud and called for the elections to be annulled.
Many foreign observers questioned the integrity of the polls. The government
managed to contain tensions only because the opposition felt that legislative
elections were of secondary importance, and because international partners
mediated between the two sides.
The forthcoming polls present a very different
challenge. First, more is at stake in a presidential vote, given the power Guinea ’s
political system vests in the executive. Secondly, the government has already
indicated its resistance to significant international involvement. Also, the
legislative elections confirmed the ethnic dimension of voting patterns. The
country’s two main groups, the Fulani and the Malinké, are split, with the
former mostly lined up behind the main opposition party, Cellou Dalein Diallo’s
Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) and the latter mostly behind
President Alpha Condé’s Rally of the People of Guinea (RPG) Rainbow.
(pix: presstv)
Electoral regulations and institutions, including
the timetable, remain flawed. The date of the presidential election has not yet
been set. Despite -- or because of -- the makeshift arrangements of recent
years, the regulatory framework is incoherent. Even where clear rules exist,
they are often not enforced. The country lacks key institutions, such as a Constitutional Court .
The government-opposition dialogue initiated in July 2014 to clarify the legal
framework quickly collapsed, as the parties failed to settle on a written
record of the verbal deals reached during the discussions.
Although the risk of intervention by the army is
lower than in the past, political tensions are a grave concern. The opposition,
which refrained from organising demonstrations for a time, officially because
of the Ebola epidemic, announced in November 2014 that it was preparing for
renewed action. Controversy over the elections fuels ethnic divisions, slows
economic development and hampers government attempts to mobilise the public in
the fight against Ebola. There is still time to build minimum consensus on
electoral arrangements, but it will require the following steps:
·
President
Condé should invite the government and opposition to engage in a new round of
talks on electoral arrangements. Both parties should prepare for this dialogue
by drafting precise, comprehensive and realistic measures. A senior political
figure from the president’s office should participate.
·
The parties
should agree on a realistic electoral timetable. They should not rule out the
option of postponing the presidential vote if this would genuinely improve its
quality. Considering the importance of the local authorities in the
organisation of elections, their controversial replacement by
government-appointed administrators and the need to promote trust, local
elections should be held a minimum of three months and a maximum of six months
before the presidential polls, so as to provide ample time for elected
representatives to start working.
·
The
Independent National Electoral Commission should be entirely reshuffled so as
to fully recognise its political character. The new commissioners should be
appointed solely and in equal numbers by the presidential coalition and the
opposition, and decisions should be made by consensus.
·
The president
should take the decrees to promulgate the organic laws creating the National
Human Rights Institution and the Constitutional
Court as voted by the National Transition Council.
Practical measures, including budgetary, should be taken so that these
institutions can begin operating quickly.
·
The
government, with the opposition’s support, should ask the UN to send a needs
assessment mission to assess electoral arrangements.
·
The government
should invite credible long-term international electoral observation missions
from the European Union and the African Union to monitor the presidential
election and, though this is less common, the local elections, at least in Conakry , Moyenne Guinée
and the Nzérékoré region.
Dakar/Brussels,
15 December 2014
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