By Adekunle Adekoya
During the work week ending today, that infamous Bretton Woods institution, the International Monetary Fund, IMF, was in doublespeak regarding the economy of many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and particularly mentioned countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, Ghana, and my dear country ( I have no other!), Nigeria.
Urging Nigeria and the other countries to rethink implementation strategies of the reforms embarked on, the IMF, in its latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa report, noted that the countries involved in deep reforms, including Nigeria, Ghana, Ethiopia and Kenya, may now be experiencing what it called ‘adjustment fatigue’, while some are facing civil resistance.
Nigeria, for instance, has recorded multiple civil unrests and labour shutdowns
following disenchantment with the impact of the macroeconomic reforms,
especially in petrol and foreign exchange deregulations.
The report stated: “In the face
of popular frustration, there is also an opportunity to work to mobilize
support for large, deep reforms…
“Realizing this opportunity
requires rethinking reform strategies, to build and maintain pro-growth
coalitions among constituent leaders and the general public. This will require
greater attention to communication and engagement strategies, reform design,
compensatory measures, and rebuilding trust in public institutions”.
For the ordinary man on the
street, the so-called reforms are mainly removal of subsidies on petrol and
electricity, and flotation of the Naira. We have all seen the effects, since 18
months ago on May 29, 2023 that subsidy was removed. To eat one square meal now
takes a major effort; most people eat meals that are by no means “square”,
mostly on Formula 0-0-1, which translates to no breakfast, no lunch, and just
supper.
Others adopt other variations of
just one meal a day; it could be 0-1-0, or 1-0-0 as the case may be. One
disturbing effect of the reforms is the way prices rise, on a daily basis, such
that the value of money declines rapidly. What N10,000 could buy last week, it
can no longer buy today. As things stand now, it is only people working in
government’s looting centres that think of buying cars or building houses.
In one word, the economy is virtually on its back with all legs in the air; layoffs are the order of the day by companies trying to cut costs to stay afloat. Electricity is just not available, with frequent collapses of the national power grid. Look everywhere, every sector is managing one distress or the other. And the people are expressing their frustrations. The Arewa Consultative Forum on Wednesday advised President Bola Tinubu to review his economic reforms and “give them a human face”, and in what seems like a landlord serving his tenant a quit notice, added that the interests of the peoples of Northern Nigeria can best be served by Northerners. More on that another day.
President Tinubu is currently in
Brazil attending the summit of the G-20 nations. There, he has met and had
discussions with notable world leaders, including the Managing Director of the
IMF, Kristallina Georgieva. Georgieva said the IMF is strongly in support of
the economic reforms introduced in Nigeria under President Bola Tinubu.
Speaking on X on Thursday,
Georgieva, inter alia, said: “Commended Nigeria’s decisive actions to reform
the economy, accelerate growth and generate jobs for its vibrant population.
The IMF strongly supports Nigeria on this journey.”
That, to me, is in sharp contrast with the Regional Outlook report issued
by the same IMF earlier in the week, and for me, the IMF is trying to be
politically correct with Georgieva’s statement, which from where I stand
amounts to doublespeak. Since the IMF head honcho is applauding Tinubu, fellow
Nigerians, I’m afraid we’re in for one very long grind under these excruciating
conditions.
The president must be feeling
good that he’s getting accolades from the gnomes of the IMF and World Bank. But
we need to remind him that “ebi n pa wa
o!” But it needs not be so. Tinubu can take all of IMF’s advice, but it is
his call to modify them to ensure the best for his people. That is if he sees
us as his people, and I’m beginning to doubt many things. The truth is that
there must be a country, with healthy people to have an economy; is the economy
being restructured for people to die?
We must be alive to play our
respective roles in economic recovery. Can’t the president and his men see
that? I say again, deregulate all you want, float the naira howsoever, but
devise a clever way to bring relief to the people, not these ineffectual palliatives
that are not even being well implemented. One sure way of doing that, as I’ve
opined earlier, is to deliberately sell crude to local refiners at half the
international price in naira and work the system to drive down the price of
fuel energy. It is one sure way to refloat the economy. But will the president
think of this? If he does, will he do it? Ponder.
*Adekoya
is a commentator on public issues
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