By Steve Osuji
Tinubu in do-or-die 2nd term bid: First, it is perverse for an incumbent to seek to shutdown an entire system; the very same that ensconced him onto power. It's like sequestering yourself in a house with doors and windows tightly shut! The very open system which brought a man to power, he now seeks to shut it down in order to eliminate any form of contest or opposition.
This scenario is what President Bola Tinubu has fully pre-occupied himself with since he came to power in May, 2023. Shutdown the space! Pull down their bastions and hack their stanchions! This seems to be the silent battle cry of Tinubu and his ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
The tactics as they unfolded are seemingly threefold, thus: infiltrate all opposition parties (LP, PDP, etc) and make them dysfunctional; hound key opposition figures (Abubakar Mahmood, Aminu Tambuwal and Nasir el Rufai) using anti-graft agencies and thirdly, control the electoral body.
All of these dark strategies apparently hatched for sweeping the 2027 general elections have been activated and operationalised. Though President Tinubu would never win a second term in a free and fair poll, the process seems technically afore-rigged. 2027 is therefore, seemingly settled in Tinubu's favour unless a catastrophe, like a tsunami occurs.
ENTER THE HEGEMONS: But there's a little snag somewhere in the mix. In tightening the screws on the 2027 election 'Heistmobile'; in hunting down the big opponents, two Hegemons are now locked in a fight to death.
Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and Mallam Nasir el Rufai are currently locked in a death duel of their own. President Tinubu's second term having been secured and done with (or so it seems) and the south's tenure out of the way, the contest has shifted to who becomes the next president of Nigeria from the north in 2031. Ribadu and el Rufai are already the major aspirants and they are locking horns like two crazed bulls. This column is of the opinion that unless the twain strike a compromise, one may have to take out the other to have his way.
THE WAY
OF HEGEMONS: Both Ribadu and RUFAI are at once, scions and
beneficiaries of Nigeria's hegemonic north. Who remembers when Nigeria was
controlled by a mythical 'Kaduna Mafia'! Or the influence of the Barewa College
Old Boys in leadership selection and succession in Nigeria? Of course the
cunning British coloniser at independence, left a political structure that
ensured that Nigeria was kept under a northern hegemony. This means that
the north would perpetually dominate and enjoy an undue advantage over the
south in the affairs of the country.
From a skewed arrangement at independence in 1960 to the
military era which ended in 1999, the north held the country in thrall. It has
the first pick of the fattest cut and even determines who gets what in the
federating units.
Though their influence has waned over the years, the duo of Ribadu and Rufai are the last of northern hegemons and their sense of entitlement to Aso Rock come 2031 will keep Nigeria spellbound in the coming years.
Nuhu Ribadu, son of a prominent politician in the first Republic
is a shining star of the north. Educated, connected and inordinately
ambitious.
He holds a masters degree in Law from Ahmadu Bello University
and thereafter enrolled in the Nigeria Police rising to the position of
Assistant Inspector General of Police.
A key highlight of his career was his appointment by President
Olusegun Obasanjo as the pioneer chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes
Commission, EFCC.
He led the anti-graft body creditably well, making much impact
as a pioneer.
But his vaulting political ambitions soon got the better of him.
He got into bed with the rogue politicians he had earlier indicated, embarking
on a frenzied pursuit of political power.
He has contested in every election since 2011, starting with presidency and several guber attempts. He lost woefully each time!
Today, Ribadu is the de facto number two man in Nigeria today sitting on the powerful position of National Security Adviser, NSA.
A master of the art of power and influence, Ribadu has held the
position well, rendering unto it, much gravitas and awesome aura. He captured
the seat, so to speak and got the ear of the president from the word go.
While he lacked the capacity to fight the raging insecurity, he
has leveraged on the sad situation and now makes great capital of the incipient
US collaboration.
He has probably amassed huge wealth, but his greatest personal reckoning may well be his ability to keep out his once chummy, now mortal enemy from the current power loop.
Nasir el-Rufai, the immediate past governor of Kaduna State was
once a great pal of Nuhu Ribadu's. When Ribadu held sway as EFCC chairman and
Rufai was the czar of the federal capital territory, Abuja as presiding
minister, the twain were like the biblical David and Jonathan.
Rufai who studied Surveying and Estate Management was an honours
student also at the Ahmadu Bello University.
He set up practice in Lagos and was consultant to the military
government both under the dictator Sani Abacha and the transformation
government of Gen. Abdulsalam Abubakar.
When President Obasanjo was ushered in in 1999, Rufai along with
Ribadu, were among the haymakers of the administration for eight years.
They were not just the shining stars of the Obasanjo administration, they were the emerging northern stars.
RIBADU-RUFAI
DUEL BEGINS: It wasn't public knowledge when the duo fell out or what was
the crux of the matter but the highpoint came in 2023 after president Tinubu
was sworn in. Whilst Rufai was the architect of the ticket and subsequent
presidential victory, Ribadu had Tinubu's ears as well as his security network.
It was also his duty to screen appointees. Thus it was that Rufai was screened
out and never made Tinubu's cabinet.
Slighted and denigrated, he left the ruling APC and joined the coalition of opposition under the aegis of Africa Democratic Congress, ADC. He has continued to look back in anger since then. First, he told the world that Obi won the 2023 presidential election and not Tinubu and the APC.
He has vowed that President Tinubu would fall. He knows the
plot, he has boasted. He said his old pal Ribadu ensured he didn't make the
Tinubu cabinet and accused him of plotting for 2031 presidency. In fact, he
hasn't stopped talking.
No doubt, both Ribadu and the presidency haven't been sleeping easy
with Rufai a loose cannon out there.
Probably wealthier than half a dozen African states out
together, brilliant and wily, if Rufai is not in your political corner, he had
better be sequestered in a lonely corner.
This is what Ribadu and the APC has finally achieved a few days ago.
Rufai was caught up by his unwarranted bravura and
loquaciousness. By one careless talk about taping the phone of the NSA, he fell
into the 'enemy' trap. He was pulled in and tossed between two anti-graft
agencies and the Department of State Service (DSS).
Today, the irrepressible en fant terrible has been put away till
April in the first instance. He will probably be slammed on a long jail term
unless he cuts a deal. He also has the capacity to fight very dirty.
Tinubu and the APC are no doubt jittery. As they close the space and hound the opposition, a national backlash may ensue.
In summary, President Tinubu and his APC may be under the
illusion that they have routed the opposition and closed the democratic space
completely. But APC has under-performed and public opinion is tilted
against the incumbent.
The auguries are dark and 2027 remains uncertain.
LASTLINES: By-Elections, INEC's Poor Outing
If the last by-elections in Abuja and Rivers State are a
testament of what to come, there's indeed real fear over the 2027 general
elections.
INEC'S chairman Professor Joash Amupitan's first outing was
signposted by mutilated result sheets, ballot box snatching and even
death.
This was just local council election and the results as
pronounced, leave much to be desired.
The mandatory transmission canvassed by Nigerians but sabotaged
by the legislature could not be applied by the INEC. The election turned out
shambolic.
Result: Nigerians are already braced for the worst as 2027
approaches.##
*Osuji was editor at The Guardian, THISDAY, etc.
(Feedback: steve.osuji@gmail.com)
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