By Tonnie Iredia
Many analysts who felt they could explain away the poor conduct of the 2019 elections ended up making two irritating statements; first that the nation’s electoral body did not have a server and second that even if there was one, it was not put into use. Considering that it was public knowledge that INEC was funded to get a server, the narrative could have sent the nation ablaze, but it did not.
In 2023, INEC’s claim that a glitch adversely affected only one out of 3 elections that were simultaneously conducted should have led to massive violent reactions as it used to be in Nigeria, but again it did not. It is however naïve to imagine that Nigerians have suddenly become dumb or that the unusual post-election calm has now established the emergence of a new political culture.
History is replete with reports of how Nigeria used to witness political upheavals whenever it was time for politics and elections. Anyone who thinks all is well now needs to be more attentive and watchful of the catch phrases of today’s Nigerian politicians. Whereas some members of the ruling party are certain that the 2027 general elections have already been won by them even before voting, opposition stakeholders merely remind anyone that cares to hear that the next elections would not be announced late at night and that the judiciary may not be allowed to sermonize this time around. If the truth must be told, the summary of political talks is that Nigeria is heading towards a do or die political destination akin to what we saw severally in our clime in times past.
In 1964, the ruling party ‘won’ many seats in the federal legislature through the declaration of fake unopposed candidates by partisan election officials. In reaction, the opposition group struck back the following year during the Western Regional election which was perhaps the bloodiest political battle in Nigeria.
The polls were marred by intimidation and killings, characterized by “Operation Wetie” where political opponents were attacked and their houses set ablaze with petrol. The conflagration ended in the first military coup of January 1966. The lesson here is that those who say the worst civilian government is better than the best military regime should at this juncture take steps to prevent the return to political violence that can bring back the military.
If the admonition is ignored, there is real danger of a possible return to the type of violence and electoral malpractices which attended to the 1983 elections where the ruling party reportedly gained massive victories even in centres in which voting did not take place. If so, it is time to take our minds back to how opposition politicians or other bad losers reacted to the declaration of false results. To expect that people would calmy react to the outcome of elections is to forget the situation in 2011where violent protests erupted in 12 northern states following the declaration of Goodluck Jonathan’s victory as president. Human Rights Watch at the time reported the death of no less than 800 people who imagined that the election was manipulated.
Indeed, many people always die in several states as a result of elections in the country – one tragic example being the burning alive of the PDP woman leader in Kogi state in 2019. In other states such as Kano and Rivers, no less than 600 deaths were recorded from the beginning of electioneering campaigns in mid-2018 till the election in 2019. Bearing in mind that elections which usually ended in several deaths do not represent democracy, there is a need to design strategies that can produce peaceful and credible contestations. Unfortunately, no one is adopting the posture of Goodluck Jonathan who publicly announced to his compatriots that his ambition was not worth the blood of a fellow citizen. No one is also currently stepping into the shoes of Waziri Ibrahim of the defunct Great Nigeria Peoples Party GNPP to preach politics without bitterness.
As of today, nothing suggests a change of public perception of the meaning and nature of election in Nigeria. While the ruling party would want to take advantage of the incumbency factor to tilt arrangements to its favour, the opposition is left to use extra-judicial means to compel a level playing ground. To start with, INEC, the regulator and referee of the game does not appear to be truly independent as many partisan officials within its system are still there. Only last week, the umpire presented a posture of subservience on the matter of whether or not, it can review its schedule of elections already criticised for not avoiding activities during Ramadan.
The commission has allowed the legislature to present a picture of the one that has power to resolve the problem through law making. The truth however is that INEC is the only body legally empowered to organize, undertake and supervise all elections. As a result, the National Assembly cannot rely on the provisions of the Electoral Act to usurp the powers of the INEC to fix the dates for elections.
In 2018 when the National Assembly tried to alter INEC’s election schedule to solve a controversy, the judiciary ruled that INEC could not be dictated to on a matter over which it is empowered by the constitution to undertake its mandate. As soon as it was observed that a large chunk of Nigerians may be dissuaded from voting during fasting, INEC should have immediately taken control to resolve the controversy without reference to any other body especially overzealous lawmakers.
Besides, there is the inexplicable refusal of the political class to heed INEC’s warning on premature electioneering campaigns about which INEC could do nothing. The position of the law is that formal campaigns are not expected to kick off until 150 days before the general elections.
Yet, right from the end of the 2023 elections both the ruling APC as well as a number of opposition parties began to hold rallies, campaigns and indeed, organized defections mostly to the ruling party. This made many Nigerians to hold-on to the view that INEC is essentially a toothless bull dog that can hardly bite. The public perception of INEC operating under the direction of the ruling party suggests that the supposed umpire is incapable of standing firm against certain players in the game of politics and elections.
It would be difficult to stop political violence if one group feels the only way they can square up to the favoured party is to use extra-judicial means. One expects all parties to realize the gravity of lawlessness which can bring back the hydra-headed subject of political associations.
To make matters worse nothing has been done to any of the complaints put forward for redress by the opposition in the last decade. For example, no one understands why it is hard to pass a law setting up an election offences tribunal to deal decisively with electoral mal-practices. Could it be that those who benefit from the activities of criminals are seeking to protect such criminals?
Again, it is baffling that the only issues we are willing to deal with are cosmetic matters. The obvious substantive issues are overlooked. What for instance is the real interest of Nigerians in who a party chooses to pick as its flag bearer? How come the mode of party primaries is still a subject of importance when the Supreme Court has said now and again that we should allow political parties to pick their candidates.
Since 2023, the most intense subject of concern to us all has been how results are transmitted from one location to another. Our law makers have now said that the subsisting order that we all have concerns over should remain as it was. If so, why did we spend so much to hold town hall meetings across the nation when the legislators who are to collate, analyse and vote on the subject are proven to be fixated?
With the group of legislators, we have now, our electoral process can be simplified in comedy. No need for server or other technologies because to our leaders, we have not developed at all since 2015. The way forward is for their parties to grant them automatic tickets so they can remain and enjoy wardrobe, recess and other allowances.
What they do not understand however is that those who are out of office will engineer violence and once again everyone will be out. It would be unfair for the political class to turn around in due course to blame anyone else for the death of Nigeria’s democracy.
*Dr. Iredia is a former DG of the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA)
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