Just take the phrase: “impending” in the title above with a pinch of salt. I use the word because in politics as in life, things happen – as seemingly absolute situations become redeemable and what originally appears impossible could be the catalyst for fresh opportunities.
The APC emerged as a special purpose vehicle – composed
almost entirely from second hand, used groups from the CPC, the ACN, APGA,
ANPP, and a break away faction of the PDP, known as new PDP (nPDP) – even if
there was nothing new about it, with the sole objective of taking power from
the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the then incumbent
President Goodluck Jonathan.
Pro-APC persons described the APC as a child of necessity.
They were convinced that 16 years of being in power had made the PDP
complacent, arrogant and that its members had lost focus. They also argued that
the Jonathan government needed to be changed by all means possible.
Political coalitions often work when for one reason or the
other, the ruling party loses either credibility or legitimacy, and the
coalition gains the support of the people but the extent of the coalition’s
success depends on its level of preparedness for office, and the quality of
consensus among the partners. The APC coalition is not the first in the history
of Nigerian politics, but it is perhaps the most impactful- even if driven by
hate speech, populist propaganda and mass hysteria and hypnotism.
It was a question of politics meeting with the public mood,
and an unstoppable moment anchored on the symbolism of a strong man coming to
“rescue” Nigeria .
The electorate that bought into this narrative and turned it into votes is
today full of regrets. The APC began to unravel from day one, particularly at
the centre. It took the government that emerged about six months to put a
cabinet together, and almost two years to make some other critical appointments.
Members of the coalition struggled for space, influence and
power among themselves, and almost immediately, there were issues over the
choice of the leaders of the National Assembly. The drama of the choice of the
Senate president and the Speaker of the House of Representatives left many
power brokers out in the cold.
If there was any power sharing formula among the partners,
somehow this was ignored by the CPC arm of the coalition led by the President,
all made worse by the domination of the levers of government by CPC and Buhari
loyalists. Non-Fulani members of the APC soon began to sound as if they had
been attacked by a band of imported herdsmen. Party members including Governors
and Senators, and party officials expressed frustration openly.
In less than three years, some of the bitterest criticisms of
the party have come not from the opposition but from within the party itself:
Timi Frank perpetually complaining about party processes, Shehu Sani and other
Senators from Kaduna State at loggerheads with their State Governor,
personality conflicts in virtually every state, most notably in Adamawa, Imo,
Kano, Rivers and Lagos state, Governor Ortom of Benue openly accusing the
Federal Government of negligence, Governor El-Rufai, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and
Senator Shehu Sani at various times sounding notes of warning, Senator Dino
Melaye assuming the role of an in-house critic, and members of the ACN and the
nPDP alleging that they have been used and dumped.
The APC wing of the National Assembly is divided among its
ranks, and has posed more threat to the Executive arm of government than the
opposition. The APC is also the biggest challenge to its own promise. In 2015,
the party promised to tackle three main issues: security, the economy and
corruption. It has since found itself in the uncomfortable situation of
disowning some other promises it made. It even took more than two years to
launch an economic blueprint. The party over-promised and under-delivered.
It is possible to argue that differences and contestations
are part of the democratic process and that this is the only way political
parties can grow. Except that in this case, the conflicts are not ideas-based,
even members of the APC themselves have no idea what the party really stands
for, but they all seem so sure of their personal ambitions, hence the obvious
lack of order and coherence. Knowing this to be so, President Muhammadu Buhari,
who is also the leader of the party, had set in motion a reconciliation
process, and appointed Asiwaju Bola Tinubu to lead it. This has not worked as
Tinubu soon found himself in the heat of acrimony with the party Chairman,
Chief John Oyegun and some of his own former protégés. The extent of this
implosion became more evident during the party’s recent state congresses.
Parallel congresses were held in more than 10 states, there
were reports of boycotts, violence and general confusion. Given the tone and
nature of the conflict, it seems obvious that the APC is a victim of its own
lack of three things – internal democracy, originality and sincerity of purpose.
It is a familiar scenario. The APC leadership should learn from the example of
the PDP and how that party lost the 2015 general election. The first major
crisis faced by the PDP was the failure to manage the exit of the five
Governors in 2013, and the subsequent mischief over the 2015 campaign process.
Powerful forces within the party for their own selfish
reasons caused disaffection among members particularly at the grassroots level.
Internal democracy was frustrated at all levels by those who regarded
themselves as powerful Abuja forces, the same drama that is now being played
out in the APC. The PDP went into the 2015 elections, as a divided party, with
fifth columnists among its ranks. The APC now faces the same challenge.
The nPDP wing of the APC has already served what looks like a
quit notice. There are cases in court. The usual attitude is for those who
emerged triumphant in the state congresses to insist that whoever wants to
leave the party should do so. It was this same attitude that messed up the PDP.
Failure has taught the PDP a bitter lesson: the party is only now just in the
process of reinventing itself. It is ironic for example that the same PDP in
the face of likely crisis in Ekiti state recently ended up having a peaceful
party primary, with the defeated congratulating the winner and promising to
work for the good of the party.
In Kaduna state,
the PDP also put up an impressive performance in the recent local government
elections. It is important however that the PDP does not begin to see the
crisis within the APC as its own gain. It still has a lot to do to convince the
electorate that it can be taken serious again. In 2014, PDP strategists worked
on the permutation that the APC, being a community of strange bedfellows would
soon fall apart to the advantage of the PDP. It was a bad strategy which did
not work then and which is also not likely to work in 2019.
As things stand, the
APC appears as desperate for power today as it was in 2014, and those who have
sworn that the Buhari government cannot be replaced would do as much as they
did last Saturday, to impose their will on the Nigerian people. Politics
remains warfare in Nigeria because
it is the surest ticket to power, cheap money and easy life. For the Nigerian
politician, winning is therefore everything. If anyone thought 2015 was a major
turning point in Nigerian politics, the 2019 general elections may even prove
to be more eventful, and while the PDP may not fully resurrect, the APC may
suffer worse fate, paving the way for Nigeria ’s
new beginning…
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