By Amanze Obi
His Excellency, President Goodluck Jonathan. I address you today with utmost sense of respect. My choice of this open medium is deliberate. It is aimed at ensuring that others who feel as concerned as I do help in calling you to order. Our dear former President, information reaching us has it that you are considering standing for election in the 2027 presidential race.
We hear that you are being propelled into this project by those who feel that what the North needs in 2027 is a southerner who will serve only one term to complete the turn of the South at the Presidency. Since President Bola Tinubu is not an option for the North, or for any Nigerian for that matter, the North, which claims to have the numbers, is shopping seriously for a credible southerner that will spend only four years in office.
Those goading you on to throw your hat in the ring are telling you that you will be the best option for the North, since you cannot spend more than one term in office, having been there before. Your prodders are also telling you that your candidacy will appeal more to the North than that of Peter Obi, who has declared that he would serve only one term of four years, if elected President, for the simple reason that Obi’s avowal can only be taken with a pinch of salt. If this permutation is what is goading you on, I advise you, my former President, to shun that temptation. It will not work. If anything, it will end in painful regrets.
Before you take that leap in the dark, I want to remind you of where you are coming from. You ran a keenly contested election in 2015 that saw you handing over power as an incumbent to an opposition candidate. That was a rare act of statesmanship on our shores. Even though you conceded defeat, I strongly felt that you did not lose that election in real terms. What happened was that you allowed Attahiru Jega, the man you appointed as chairman of the electoral commission, to rig you out.
Those votes he joined his Fulani brothers in manufacturing in states like Kano, Kaduna and Katsina were not real. While he freely allotted huge figures to your main challenger in the North, he cleverly suppressed your votes in your southern strongholds. Beyond these, he unleashed underage voters in the streets of the North, thus making the credibility of that election questionable. You watched all this helplessly.
Are you supposed to be that helpless as a sitting President? In fact, Jega’s manipulation was apparent. But you permitted all that because, according to you, your ambition is not worth the blood of any Nigerian. If you could not take steps to stop the manipulation against you as a sitting president, what do you think you can really do as an outsider with all the odds stacked against you?
When you allowed the hawks to shove you aside, Nigerians of goodwill felt the wound, but they commended you all the same for allowing peace to reign. Since then, you have come to acquire the status of an international statesman, a model for democracy and a peace ambassador. You are, right now, well rated in the eyes of the world. Let me announce to you at this juncture that your 2027 gamble, if you eventually choose to go that way, will make nonsense of the reputation you have laboured to build over the years. I say so because you will not win in that election.
Let me, with utmost respect, ask you what you are aiming at in 2027. Do you aim at defeating Tinubu or to weaken Obi’s push for the presidency? If your aim is to defeat Tinubu, that will be a tall order. I say so because you lack the gravitas and the rawness that that race will require. You need to be more than the Jonathan we already know to be able to achieve that feat. The conditions at this time are not conducive for your return, that is if you will ever return as President. The battle for the presidency in 2027 will be tougher than what you experienced in 2015. I project that, if you could not fight the 2015 battle with your incumbency, 2027 will be a far cry.
Then, if your aim is to weaken Obi’s aspiration, you will be moving against the tide. I project that you will not be able to stand Obi’s popularity. He will dwarf you in a manner that will make your plan to return to power a lifetime mistake. If you insist on going ahead with the ill-advised plan, you will find yourself overwhelmed too soon with the Peter Obi hurricane. Therefore, if anybody is trying to use you to weaken Obi’s quest for the presidency, I advise you, very strongly, to shun the plot. Do not play the spoilsport. Real men stand up for what they believe in, not what is sold to them.
Let
me ask you again, Mr. President, What is going to be your trump card in the
election you want to venture into? Is it your one-term flag? That will not
work. Those who pushed you out want to use you to weaken Obi’s one-term
declaration. But let me alert you to the fact that what will decide the
election is not term limit. Nigerians will be interested in what you can offer.
Remember that Nigerians have already seen the whole of you. They know your
capacity. Therefore, you have nothing new to tell them.
Again, where will your votes be coming from in 2027? Are you imagining that the North will just embrace you because of one term? It will be too simplistic on your part to reason along that line. Remember that the South East was your stronghold when you were President. They supported you more than your own zone. Now, one of their own is gunning seriously for the presidency. Your role should be to support and not torpedo the project. The South East does not deserve any form of sabotage from you.
What will be your message to Nigerians, if you decide to run? I can hardly figure out anything. But unlike you, Obi has a living, pulsating message for Nigeria. He is offering Nigerians something new; something they have not seen before in governance. Nigerians are also placing much hope on Obi because of his integrity. They believe that he will do what he has promised. He has said he will do one term. And Nigerians have no reason to doubt him. He has presented Nigerians with a blueprint on how to get the country out of the present mess. Nigerians are hopeful that he will deliver on his promises. It is the confidence they repose in him that made the people to vote massively for him in 2023. Nigerians will do much more than that in 2027.
As you can see, Mr. President, it will be tough for you to fit into this set-up. It will choke you. I am convinced that your participation in the election, if you eventually decide to run, will not be more than a gamble. When this gamble backfires, it will diminish whatever goodwill you have garnered after your peaceful handover of power as an incumbent to an opposition candidate. My appeal to you is this: do not mess up the legacy you have laboured to build.
*Dr. Obi is a commentator on public issues
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