Legality Of Competition Transition Charges In NESI

By Idowu Oyebanjo

The declaration of Eligible Customers (EC) in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) in 2017 has sent the right signals to investors that the NESI is progressing towards retail competition. However, it seems the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) is yet again trying to walk before it crawls by introducing competition transition charges (CTC) that may discourage potential eligible customers (PEC) and investors from taking advantage of the business opportunities presented by the recent declaration.

This is not the first time we have seen how the timing and implementation of policy directives can make or mar the chances of the power sector surviving turbulent and stormy periods. It is against this backdrop that we analyse the current plans of NERC to introduce CTC in the NESI as it can potentially lead to an increase in the cost of electricity supply (tariffs) to all consumers.

A Swot Analysis Of The Meter Asset Provider Regulation(Part 2)

By Idowu Oyebanjo

Continued from PART ONE

*Threats

The biggest threat to the implementation of the Meter Asset Provider (MAP) regulation is the regulatory inconsistency and policy summersaults for which the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) has come to be known in the eyes of the international community. What if, for socio-political reasons, the MAP regulation is withdrawn and the metering service charge removed some few months down the line post-investment? A related issue is around the ownership of meters to be installed. Will the consumer own the meter and carry it when they leave the property as was possible previously if they relocate within the same DisCo franchise area? 

Will the consumer pay for meters owned by others as well as pay for the electricity consumed (a service) and metering service rendered (another service) in the procurement of same service? Consumers may see this as a case of double-dipping! As the regulation makes provisions for consumers who wish to make an upfront full payment for meters, will such a consumer continue to pay for similar charges if they relocate elsewhere within the NESI? The best way around these and allied issues will be to decouple the consumer from the asset by means of a metering point administration number (MPAN) unique to every property to which electricity is supplied and metered. Theretofore, every consumer will pay a service charge for metering and this component can be included in the MYTO tariff structure. Also, the issues around customers who have paid for meters and are yet to receive them under the CAPMI scheme have to be resolved. There is the risk around sustainability of policies made in this regard and generally, within the regulated electricity supply industry in Nigeria.

The major stakeholders in the implementation of MAP are the consumers, the DisCos, the MASPs and the financial organizations who will provide funding for the investment required. To succeed, the process has to have a line of sight and be seen to be transparent. The monies due to each party has to be handled by an independent and dedicated system or body which escrows the payments made by consumers and distributes to relevant parties based on a previously agreed sharing formula. The implementation has to be such that investors and financiers can have consistent cash flow and recoup their investment in reasonable time. To this end, there is a need for a clear financial or capital structure in the implementation (debt and or equity) for MAP and financiers who will provide long-term loans at single-digit interest rates. Sadly, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) that has been in the fore-front of the Nigerian Electricity Market Stabilization Aid, currently has a limited budget available to provide finance for Meter Asset Service Providers (MASPs). That said, the CBN is only prepared to provide funding in the form of re-financing for MASPs that can demonstrate viability and sustainability of their business model.

The time deadline provided for DisCos to procure the services of MAPS is one hundred and twenty (120) days following the 3rd of April, 2018 date of declaring the regulation. In comparison to the level of activities to be carried out for a competitively tendered procurement process and the number of certified MASPs for the entire country (22), this time is insufficient and need increasing. MASPs should also not be limited by the number of permits they have to obtain to accelerate the delivery of meters to cover the sure-to-increase metering gap. Also, economy of scale should be encouraged to ensure the warranty on installed meters are up to the shelf life, ten (10) years say, of installed meters.

For the general implementation of the MAP regulation to be a success, there is need for the proper monitoring and development of a competitive MAP procurement process. Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) tenders’ auditors will ensure transparency and review the procurement process. Both pre and post-installation audits are imperative. MASPs must have the technical competence and financial capacity to carry out the intended services and the procurement process must ensure this is the case. We need to have genuine investors who will be willing to put money into investing in infrastructure, which in this case are the durable and fit-for-the purpose electricity meters for the NESI. This will also mean the power system will have a much desired enforcement system devoid of the corruption-ridden judicial system we have to day. The special court for the NESI will rely on the efforts of specially trained enforcement officers who will render swift services up to adjudication based on laid down procedures.

According to the regulation, consumers will have to pay a metering service charge (a lease charge) for the services provided by a MAP. In view of the level of consumer apathy today, and more so, as many consumers have paid for meters previously under the CAPMI scheme and are yet to receive the meters, there is an urgent need for an extensive enlightenment and sensitization campaign to be championed by NERC to seek the understanding of consumers nationwide. It is best to involve consumer advocacy and civil society groups, consumer protection council, and other affiliate organizations during the communication efforts to make this campaign a success. Yet, there is still the issue of consumers who reject the offer to have meters installed in their property. Thus, a robust enlightenment campaign for market participants and customer re-orientation to be championed by the DisCos and NERC is apt.

The absence of robust data and communication systems on which the stakeholders including the MASPs can leverage is another area of need. For the NESI to function optimally, and by extension for the implementation of the MAP regulation to be a success, there is a dire need for customer enumeration, consolidated with asset information systems. 

This provides an opportunity for DisCos to sponsor an energy networks association (ENA) to be saddled with delving into core technical problems within the NESI for and on behalf of the stakeholders. Issues to be looked at include but not limited to cost-reflectivity of tariffs, customer charging methodology, consolidated and centralized high-fidelity data capture of consumers and assets, technical policies for the successful operation of power assets and systems, specifications for plants, components and devices, research and development (R&D), investigation into failures and recommendations etc.

As metering services have hitherto been in the jurisdiction of DisCos, there will be cases of existing contracts with certain metering services providers that need to ultimately operate based on the MAP regulatory framework. While a process to ensure the sacrosanctity of such contracts has to be put in place, a cut-off date for migrating all such legacy metering services contracts to operate in line with the MAP regulation has to be determined. Such existing contracts between DisCos and their current metering service providers have to be declared to NERC now to preserve the integrity of the new regulatory regime. Also, it is possible for a DisCo to frustrate the process of implementing the MAP regulation if for example additional mundane and impeding requirements are placed on MASPs in the procurement of their services as the regulator has only provided minimum requirements for MASPs with Discos at liberty to demand further requirements in conformance with their asset management policies. 

This has the potential to slow down the implementation of the MAP regulation. The antidote to this is the separation of the “wire” business of DisCos from the energy supply business to be provided by separate legal entities, owned by existing DisCos, MASPs or others. In addition, as MASPs have to procure 30% of meters from certified local manufacturers, a system has to be worked out to ensure that MASPs patronise local manufacturers of meters and if possible tracked by the regulator. Also, the percentage of local content involvement can be increased (or flipped) to make original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to open shop in Nigeria which brings with it attendant employment opportunities and allied economic benefits that impact positively on the country’s GDP.

The absence of technical specification and standards of electricity meters to which MASPs must adhere leaves room for sub-standard meters to be installed within the NESI. This threatens the sustainability of the business for MASPs and may ultimately lead the consumers back to status quo. The required specifications will include requirements for technology, data management and communication systems. There is also the issue of collaboration between NERC and Nigerian Electricity Management Services Agency (NEMSA).

The MAP regulation is a step in the right direction towards entrenching full retail competition in the NESI as envisioned by the Electric Power Supply Reform Act (EPSRA) 2005 which has to be updated to reflect the changes brought about by the declaration of the eligible customer and meter asset provider regulations. Its implementation is only a part of the solutions to the myriads of problems bedevilling the power sector. Closing the metering gap does not in itself remove the problems associated with ATC&C losses, cases of electricity theft and meter bypass, low morale and deficiency in human capital resources within the NESI.

The next step in the direction of full-scale competition in the distribution system within the NESI will involve the separation of the “wire” services from the energy supply services to allow DisCos to carry lower risks and focus on the required investment in the operation and maintenance of the weak network infrastructure while reducing the aggregate technical and non-technical losses in the distribution network.

…Concluded

A Swot Analysis Of The Meter Asset Provider Regulation (Part 1)

By Idowu Oyebanjo

The recently released Meter Asset Provider (MAP) Regulation by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) in attempting to close the metering gap in the power sector has become inevitable because DisCos have failed to provide meters to consumers within the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) as anticipated by metering targets set in the performance agreements between Federal Government and Distribution Companies (DisCos).

As a result of this failure, estimated billing, electricity theft, meter bypass, illiquidity in the power sector, increased aggregate technical, commercial and collection losses (ATC&C) and consumer apathy towards the power sector reform have been some of the undesirable consequences. Lately, the National Assembly has determined to criminalise estimated billing in response to the cries of consumers nationwide who have in the last five (5) years remained unmetered, let-down and unprotected in the current regulatory environment. By this regulation, NERC aims to achieve revenue assurance within the NESI, reduce illiquidity, close the current metering gap of over 4.7 million meters within the next three years and eliminate estimated billing. It is therefore imperative to consider the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats associated with the implementation of the MAP regulation.

The Petroleum Industry Governance Bill (PIGB) – A Watered-down version of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB)

By Idowu Oyebanjo

The 8th Senate has passed the PIGB which, when assented to by the President, will give birth to a new era for the Petroleum Industry in Nigeria. Most of the countries that established National Oil Companies as did Nigeria have actually developed their Petroleum Industries to benefit their citizens and nations especially in making electricity available as a free commodity which in my opinion can also be implemented in Nigeria.

*Buhari: President and Petroleum Minister 

After several years of attempts to reform the oil and gas industry in Nigeria, the watered-down version of the original Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) may be on its way for Presidential assent with a 5% levy on fuel sold or distributed in Nigeria.

Customer Eligibility: Business Opportunities In The Nigerian Power Sector

By Idowu Oyebanjo

The eligible customer criteria declared by the Minister of Power is a clear business opportunity. Generally speaking, it means qualified customers can get electricity directly from GenCos and other Suppliers. This brings a number of opportunities for investors and fund managers as enumerated below.

Opportunity for Independent Electricity Distribution Network Owners – IEDNOs.

A person or group of individuals can invest in a dedicated electricity network and supply power to housing estates, manufacturers, and heavy electricity consumers throughout Nigeria. This will be according to the Independent Electricity Distribution Network [IEDN] regulations set by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).

2017- A Year Of Power Sector Highs & Lows

By Idowu Oyebanjo, MNSE CEng MIET UK

This year has had its “ups and downs” and the power sector is no exception. The year started with a generally low mood in terms of the quantum of power generation available for distribution from none to a peak of 5,222MW on 18^th of December, 2017. Early on in the year, the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Company (NBET) decried the generally low level of remittances from the distribution companies (DisCos) which has led to the rising spate of on-going debt and general illiquidity in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI).

 The average monthly remittance from the DisCos was as low as 30 percent with all the operators trading blames on who is responsible for the situation. This has led to the inability of the generating companies (GenCos) and the transmission company of Nigeria (TCN) to pay for services procured in generating and transmitting power to the DisCos. The illiquidity in the NESI has resulted in a generally low mood for all stakeholders including Banks, financial institutions, relevant ministries, departments, agencies, potential investors (local & international).

Nigeria: More Deaths Due To Electrocution Unless...

By Idowu Oyebanjo

Electrocution is basically death caused by an electric shock. While this is not a favoured topic, it is important to expose the facts about the Nigerian Power System and the high potential that it possesses to cause more deaths due to electrocution in the short to medium term if things are done improperly as they are now.

One of the anti-climax of not having stable electricity for over 50 years now in Nigeria is the fact that one did not hear so much of deaths due to electric shock from electrical appliances or devices. This is mainly because there was no “light”. With the recent increase in availability of gas to power stations, and the attendant availability of electricity supply, the weakness of the power system will come to the fore and more electrical safety accidents are bound to occur. Unfortunately, because electricity is a good servant but a bad master, the fatal results of not following electrical principles in the design, operation, maintenance and control of the power system is death by electrocution! In the last few weeks alone, we have had the death of a staff of one of the electricity companies while he was carrying out his day to day activities on a power line. But more recently, the case of Oluchi Anekwe, a 3rd year student at the University of Lagos has reinforced the calls by experts for a holistic review of the operation of the Nigerian Power System.

Nigeria: Eligible Customer Declaration In NESI – SWOT Analysis

By Idowu Oyebanjo

The declaration of eligible customers prior to the prevalence of conditions precedence as stated in the contract between FG and DisCos became inevitable because the DisCos have not been transparent with remittances of monies collected from consumers thereby worsening the illiquidity crisis in the electricity market within the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI). In addition, DisCos have failed to invest in customer metering and the reduction of aggregate technical, commercial and collection losses as required by their distribution licences. Federal Government (FG) has therefore invoked the eligibility customer clause according to section 27 of the Electric Power Sector Reform Act (EPSRA) 2005 under Ministerial directives.

*Idowu Oyebanjo

One can easily understand the FG trying to preserve the health of the sector however, the initial reaction of the DisCos may be to cry foul. This may not be necessary as some of the transactions will still go through DisCos and TCN. It is therefore in order to evaluate the Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats in FG’s decision to allow GenCos to sell electricity “directly” to four categories of customers with average monthly consumption of 2MW and connected to the medium and high voltage segments of the electricity network. This in my opinion should be described as customers with minimum Authorised Supply Capacity (ASC) of 2MVA. This is equivalent to a consumption of 100 Amperes (unit of current) at 11kV

*Strength

By declaring the eligible customers, Nigeria’s privatisation addresses the myth around subjecting a “natural monopoly” to economic regulation rather than competition in a privatised electricity supply industry by deepening competition in the electricity market of natural monopolies. Such competition or liberalisation will force the existing 11 DisCos to improve their operational efficiency and customer service. This will become a reference wherever matters of electricity regulation are being discussed in the world of power systems.

The advent of Distributed Generation and bringing of generation close to consumers will help to improve the liquidity of the electricity market and achieve the desired reduction in network losses more quickly if the scheme is properly implemented.

Nigeria: FG’s Planned Demand For Transparency From DISCOS

By Idowu Oyebanjo

The Federal Government has announced plans to escrow and beam its searchlight into the revenue accounts of the operations of the DisCos due to poor monthly remittances. Although DisCos have condemned the move, this is a good step in the right direction. To address the problems of NESI, a holistic view of every aspect of the multi-faceted problems plaguing it is required with a view to solving them in a coordinated manner. One of the major problems in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) today is the potential for illiquidity. In simple terms, this arises when DisCos declare, whether truthfully or otherwise, that they have not collected enough money from consumers of electricity and so are unable to make full payments to the bulk electricity trader, NBET, for electricity received. 

This has the potential to always create illiquidity in NESI because their remittances should have been used to pay all key stake holders in the industry including but not limited to GenCos, TCN, Gas providers, market operator, NERC, NBET etc. The solutions to address this anomaly include a massive investment in customer metering, reduction in network losses, preventing electricity theft and collusion of staff of electricity companies with consumers to defraud the industry, discontinuation of estimated billing, and ensuring that revenues collected by DisCos in behalf of NESI is transparent to all key stakeholders, and not least the Federal Government which still owns 40% of DisCos. The government has chosen to implement the last of the afore-mentioned solutions but the DisCos have frowned at the move. Thus a critical review of the position of DisCos is in order.

Nigeria: On FG’s Planned Demand For Transparency From Discos

By Idowu Oyebanjo

The Federal Government has announced plans to escrow and beam its searchlight into the revenue accounts of the operations of the DisCos due to poor monthly remittances. Although DisCos have condemned the move, this is a good step in the right direction. To address the problems of NESI, a holistic view of every aspect of the multi-faceted problems plaguing it is required with a view to solving them in a coordinated manner. 

One of the major problems in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) today is the potential for illiquidity. In simple terms, this arises when DisCos declare, whether truthfully or otherwise, that they have not collected enough money from consumers of electricity and so are unable to make full payments to the bulk electricity trader, NBET, for electricity received.

This has the potential to always create illiquidity in NESI because their remittances should have been used to pay all key stake holders in the industry including but not limited to GenCos, TCN, Gas providers, market operator, NERC, NBET etc. The solutions to address this anomaly include a massive investment in customer metering, reduction in network losses, preventing electricity theft and collusion of staff of electricity companies with consumers to defraud the industry, discontinuation of estimated billing, and ensuring that revenues collected by DisCos in behalf of NESI is transparent to all key stakeholders, and not least the Federal Government which still owns 40% of DisCos. The government has chosen to implement the last of the afore-mentioned solutions but the DisCos have frowned at the move. Thus a critical review of the position of DisCos is in order.

Cost Reflective Tariff: New Framework For Electricity Supply, Distribution And Pricing Required In NESI

By Idowu Oyebanjo

The issues surrounding cost reflective tariffs in NESI has remained unresolved even though it seemed all stakeholders acknowledged it but did nothing about coming together to deal with the issue which has kept the reform process in limbo since February 2016! This is about to change.

The two most important stakeholders in the business of electricity supply in Nigeria are the "demons" - those who believe that having a stable electricity situation in Nigeria will mean a huge loss of cash flow for them and their families and the customers who will actually pay the monies defined by any "cost reflective tariff", short-changed without meters but made impoverished by the corruption based estimated billing system which holds way today in NESI. The demons may include "Generator" importers, marketers, repair technicians and those involved in businesses connected with the scarcely available gas and oil (fuel for most power generating plants) such as marketers of petroleum products and the vandals who destroy gas pipelines to earn income from those who carry out repair works or those who gain political scores therefrom. These two groups of stakeholders have been grossly and arrogantly neglected when decisions are made for them or because of them. 

This is not to say there are no other important stakeholders like the government, CBN, NERC, Ministry of Power, consumer advocacy groups, ANED, NBET, DISCOs, GENCOs, TCN, foreign investors, local Banks, to mention but a few. The senate has thrown its weight behind the consumers of electricity declaring to put a stop to the recurring spate of bail out for which we predicted will become the lot of the ill-conceived, wrongly timed electricity market conjectured by some unqualified Nigerians who mediated the reform process. But there is always a time to make a U-turn in life when one is confirmed to be headed in the wrong direction. It is a question how far wrong is one prepared to go before doing the needful. In this regard, it is pertinent to examine the just released framework for petroleum products supply, distribution and pricing in May 2016 by the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources.

Restructure NERC Now!

...Speaking For Power System Engineers In The Nigerian Power Sector

By Idowu Oyebanjo

Power System Engineers have always maintained that the gains of the privatisation process cannot be felt except if conscious effort is made to involve qualified Power Systems experts to lead the course. The most recent addition to this urgent call or advice to a nation in darkness is the one from Engineer Otis Anyaeji, the current president and council chairman of the Nigerian Society of Engineers on why and how the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) should be restructured. 

*Fashola, Minister of Power 

Engineer Otis Anyaeji, in his interview with Tajudeen Suleiman in this month's TELL Magazine on why and how the government should restructure NERC has this to say:

"They just have to appoint an Engineer as Chairman, an Engineer each to regulate generation, transmission, system operation, distribution and marketing. That is to say, five of the commissioners must be Engineers while the other two can come from support services"

I cannot express it better!

One should praise the courage and devotion towards the revamping of the electricity industry in Nigeria by Lawyers and Economists who tried their best in the last ten years as Commissioners of NERC. However, they should have known that Law is in no way relevant to the management of electricity business especially one that is in the kind of chaos the NESI is. Advanced economies whose models are copied hook, line and sinker, have had stable electricity for decades before toying with Lawyers and Economists to manage electricity business. When did we lose our collective senses?

Only Power System Engineers who know their onions can save NESI, of course with a few lawyers and economists just for mere guidance. Power System is a unique field. The greatest damage done was to put Lawyers and Economists as Commissioners in numbers greater than Power Engineers, because, try as you may, you will move in circles. There will be no electricity. It is a career that some have spent their years to pursue, how easily can it then be replaced by those who pursued a different career running away from the almighty equations of physics and mathematics back in the days. 

As NERC Introduces New Electricity Tariffs In Nigeria

By Idowu Oyebanjo

The much talked about increase in electricity tariffs became operational with effect from 1st of February 2016. As consumers brace up for the new tariff regime, there are issues worth noting which will determine the sustainability of the power reform process.

The main focus on the issue of cost reflectivity has been the Distribution Companies (Discos) because they act as the conduit pipe for the collection of monies to be shared by all the stakeholders involved in the provision of energy for the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity to consumers. In effect, they are the cash boxes of the entire electricity value chain. Although 25% of collected revenue is theirs to keep, 60% goes to the generating companies (Gencos), 11% to the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), while the remaining 4% goes to other stakeholders like NERC, NBET etc.

One of the main issue is that the cost reflective tariff is hinged on a recent performance agreement reached between Discos and NERC. Given that the new Commissioners for NERC have not been appointed, albeit a care-taker committee of career officers have been running the show, it is clear that the enforcement of the service level agreements (SLAs) in the performance as agreed will lag behind. There should be a tracking of performance right from the word Go!

But the Discos cannot perform any miracles at all. The investment to be made is huge and will take many years before the overall impact can be felt. They cannot fix the technical losses in the wires and transformers from the monthly bills collected from unimpressed consumers who are likely to display a recalcitrant attitude towards the payment of their bills. At the moment, Discos have huge debts to finance as many of the technical partners have left for lack of liquidity in the sector even after two years. The current 187 billion naira deficit is a case in point. This deficit has the potential to be recurrent year after year if power system engineers are not allowed to lead the privatisation process. Economists and Lawyers will never have a clue. Technically speaking, the contract between a Disco with the federal government is no longer valid once the technical partner has abandoned the partnership. Don't forget the sale of government's asset was based, in part, on the technical capability of the so call "technical partner". Nigeria needs to get it right this time having wasted so much resources on the power sector reform of which time is the most invaluable.

A Swot Analysis Of The New Electricity Tariff In Nigeria (2)

(Click Here To Read Part One)

By Idowu Oyebanjo

The Opportunities

Localisation Of Services

In the last few years, there has been increased agitation for localisation of services in the power sector especially in the local manufacture of smart meters. Local manufacturers of meters now have an opportunity to showcase their capability under the local content initiative. This will lead to the creation of jobs and business opportunities as marketers of electricity recharge cards or vouchers just as experienced in the Telecommunication sector will spring up along with companies involved in metering and customer billing systems. 

*Idowu Oyebanjo

A critical element that will hold NESI in good steer is the need for a global procurement strategy or culture where stakeholders leverage on the volume of purchase to reduce cost. In the atmosphere of cuts, this will serve the industry well. This can start now. As Discos seek to purchase meters in bulk, they should negotiate a fair deal in view of the number of meters they will have to purchase. Consultants and service providers will not be left out as installation, operation, and required maintenance services for meters procured will be sourced. Generally speaking, there is need to establish the Joint Qualification System (JQS) and register of suitably pre-qualified practitioners to provide these services by the Nigerian Content Joint Consultative forum. 

Other potential opportunities include but not limited to the provision of Demand Side Response and Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), pursuit of revenue protection initiatives by Discos, energy efficiency and energy conservation (as those who waste electricity will now conserve it and therefore contribute to increased availability of power elsewhere on the network), increased network operational efficiency, phased introduction of feed-in-tariffs (as consumers deploy renewable generation on their roofs), increased penetration of embedded generation with the attendant reduction in network losses and accelerated increase in availability of electricity supply.

A Swot Analyses Of The New Electricity Tariff In Nigeria (1)

By Idowu Oyebanjo                  

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has finally succumbed to pressure from investors in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) to increase the tariff regime in the absence of steady power supply and at a time of economic downturn. Consumers, organised labour and affected stakeholders have expressed dissatisfaction. As painful as this may appear, it is suffice to examine the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats inherent in the increased tariff structure planned for the 1st of February 2016.

*President Buhari 

The Strengths

Government's Responsiveness And Support

In every regulated electricity business, the price of electricity as a commodity needs to be cost-reflective. This among other requirements means that price must cover the cost of efficient delivery of electricity through the value chain. Before now, the price or electricity tariff in Nigeria is one of the lowest in the world and one of the lowest in West Africa. Electricity as a commodity is produced worldwide following roughly the same process so cost should within reasonable limits be reflective and comparable. The usual dilemma in a regulated business is the requirement for government, by means of the regulator, to seek to be fair to all stakeholders especially consumers, while maintaining a fair profit margin for investors. This is generally a conflicting role. However, the government showed leadership in trying to accede to the plight of the investors by setting new guidelines that will enable increased availability of supply albeit with increase in tariffs to large consumers.

Most Nigerians are exempted from the increased tariffs

The increased tariff regime exempts consumers in the R1 and R2 categories who make up the largest number of residential consumers (albeit for six months only) whose consumption of electricity is strictly for non-commercial, but regular day-to-day home use. Most homes, and therefore the bulk of workers and citizens, are therefore unaffected for now. However, it must be stated that consumers who engage in commercial activities either in their residence or in a separate facility along with industrial consumers who consume a significant amount of electricity (high end users) have been directly targeted by the increased tariffs.

Addressing The Confusion In The Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI)

By idowu oyebanjo

 There is no doubt that the challenges facing the electricity industry is huge even as all but the Transmission Network have become private concerns. There are fundamental changes now taking place which will define the general outlook of the Nigerian Power System in the future as the power grid becomes unbundled and privatised such that the traditionally integrated and centrally dispatched energy system becomes a largely distributed and more complex architecture.

It is fair to say that today's technical and regulatory governance framework is grossly inadequate to manage the seamless integration of the different stakeholders and functions within NESI which are largely under differing ownerships. This has the potential to lead to disaster and chaos in the future if not addressed now. One of the first things required to be done is to establish an independent expert group to ensure an holistic approach to the phased development of NESI as it is becoming more than obvious to the blind that a "whole System" approach is what is needed to address the challenges facing the industry.

The recommended steering group to address the mechanisms for whole-system integration should be made up of a panel of technical experts from the Transmission and Distribution Network companies, consultants, academia, NERC, BPE, NBET, IPPs, Nigerian Gas Company, NNPC, NEMSA, MAN, data and ICT companies, the Nigerian Electricity Consumers' forum, SON and so on who have practical experience of electricity supply business. The aim of the expert group is to assist in the building of an integrated perspective for the planning and operation of the future electricity network, ensuring not only technical performance but also the opportunities for jobs and exports (technical and materials), identifying issues, defining the questions to be answered, clarifying the parties accountable, obtaining synergies and highlighting areas of relevance to national policy-making.

For most complex systems (which electrical power system is one), there is often a gap between those who specify what the whole system is required to achieve and the plethora of contractors, design authorities, operators, and other technical specialists who provide the hardware, software and other technical skills to construct and run the many sub-systems that together form the whole. It must be mentioned heretofore that neither the transition electricity market nor the free electricity market alone will be able to shape the structure, supply chain and system architecture for the provision of goods and services within the NESI. Hence, it has to be stated that this expert group will provide the co-ordination and the glue between established parties and new entrants, including generators, network users and operators, to facilitate the technical operation and the market mechanisms in a multi-party complex system like the NESI.

The new architecture required to meet the challenges of the NESI would need to develop a "Power System Framework" to address whole-system issues plaguing the NESI and this can only be provided by what we will term a "System Architect". The system architect gives a purposeful direction in the immediate and future development of the power network infrastructure based on defined codes, standards, and processes that enable seamless movement of information and operational instructions. The system architect thus takes responsibility for the correct functioning of the architecture of the whole system.

The pertinent question therefore is "Who or what is the System Architect?"

*NERC Chair, Sam Amadi 

The system architect is a separately defined entity that would take a whole-system and long-term responsibility for developing and agreeing the framework of architectures, standards, protocols, and guidelines needed to ensure seamless technical integration of the sub-systems of the industry players and parties, enabling a seamless response to the challenges arising from policy imperatives as they emerge over the coming decades. This single entity will be responsible for the management of the complexity of the evolving power system architecture in the public interest on behalf of government. Solutions for system integration challenges should be developed in consultation with key industry stakeholders while considering whole-system cost-benefit across the supply chain. The system architect would also have advisory role in providing assurance that the whole system can meet the policy-driven technical challenges of the next two decades. The role would involve developing functional specifications, policies, interfaces and best practices, overseeing system integration, interpretation of the direction of established policies by government to enable the organisations responsible for implementation and operation to do so in a coherent manner. Acting as a risk manager, the system architect will provide early warning of emerging risks to system stability and advise on the feasibility and timescales for the implementation of policies. To this end, the system architect is limited in function to technical matters that will make the Nigerian Power System function effectively to meet government's policy objectives while accommodating the requirements of the markets. Of course there will be times when effective technical integration requires attention to commercial and regulatory frameworks, and in such times, the system architect would be expected to identify these and work with government and other parties to resolve them.

The system architect in general will operate as an integration model that combines the existing segmented functions into a single function with the overall responsibility and ultimate accountability to the Minister of Power. For example, the architect can extend the scope of two key existing entities- the Grid code and Distribution code panels whose scope at the minute is limited to operational and technical matters rather than the integration of technical, operational and commercial aspects across the whole system. To succeed, the panels must be constituted to address structural and technical constraints jeopardising the successful development of the NESI with a clear focus spanning the whole system - generation, transmission, distribution, consumer, and related information flows.

NERC too should ensure the integrity of the underlying systems engineering while keeping its focus on commercial and economic levels. The activities of the Association of Nigerian Electricity Distributors (ANED) and Nigerian Electricity Consumers Advocacy Network (NECAN) forum need to be strengthened to realise the objectives of the power system. It is believed that the integration and management of data and ICT will present further challenges despite the goodwill or commitment of stakeholders and expertise of individuals involved if there is no adequate legal personality or party that will be accountable for ensuring the functionality of the increasingly complex system. Overall, there is a highly fragmented institutional landscape today that maintains and develop the codes which govern the operation of different aspects of the system, but none of which takes a whole-system view. This needs to be addressed urgently.

2015 – A Year Of Power Reform In Nigeria

With the change of government from Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to All Progressives Congress (APC) and the attendant hand over of Aso Rock to President Muhammadu Buhari, 2015 indeed marked a turning point in the history of Nigeria’s power sector. Idowu Oyebanjo writes

Buhari and Jonathan 

On May 29 2015, the PDP led government of former president Goodluck Jonathan in a show of unprecedented statesmanship in the history of Nigeria, handed over power to an APC government led by Former Military Head of State, General Muhammad Buhari (GMB). A key slogan in the months leading to this change of government is the "change" mantra. Although it was a change in political power, it equally meant a change for the electrical power system in Nigeria. From the start, the fear of Buhari gripped the agents of the "demons" holding back the country from seeing light. Suddenly, the four refineries of NNPC which have been undergoing turn around maintenance (TAM) for the last 40 years unstopped began to function, providing gas for the starved thermal power plants around the country. For the first time in the distant many years, Nigerians who are connected to the power grid felt the impact of electricity as power generation reached an all time high of 4.68GW. This was sustained for a time. The foot soldiers of the enemies then started a campaign of idiocy that the changes were due to the works done by the previous government. Nigerians are no fools and amongst the most intelligent people in the world, Nigerians rank atop.

Global Climate Change – What Nigeria Must Do (1)

By Idowu Oyebanjo 

 The Federal Government of Nigeria must begin to look at the potential opportunities for Nigeria to derive maximum benefits from the outcomes of the on-going COP 21 United Nations Framework Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) in Le Bourget, Paris. To achieve an optimum benefit for Nigeria, not only is it imperative that policy makers fully understand the social, economic, environmental, financial, technological and political issues around the subject, but the generality of Nigerians need to be widely aware of changes in the global village they live in especially in the way energy is to be viewed in the wider world around going forward. As the subject of Climate Change is somewhat technical, it may suffice to give a background on the subject before driving us through to the point we have reached so far. This is what these series of articles on the subject will try to achieve.

(pix: phys)

Early contributors to climate change include Fourier, Langley and Arrhenius. That the climate is changing is not contestable but what is being argued over the years borders on the main causes of climate change. Climate change is made possible by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of Green House Gases (GHG) such as Carbon IV Oxide (CO₂), Nitrous Oxide (NO₂), Methane (CH₄), Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC), Perfluorocarbon (PFC), and Sulfurhexafluoride (SF₆). All these gases absorb terrestrial infra red radiations.

On The Just Concluded West African Power Industry Convention 2015: Matters Arising (2)

Idowu Oyebanjo

The event was a sure delight and the organizers, SPintelligent, did a good job but the most regrettable part was the conspicuous absence of representatives of NERC, the industry regulator, and members of the newly formed Nigerian Electricity Consumers’ forum. To say the least, this was disappointing as most of the discussions centred-on and around matters relating to these two entities. However, it was nice to have other key stakeholders like NBET, CBN, local Banks, the Ministry of Power and representatives from network operators.

A major drawback of the privatisation process according to fresh claims by the  investors is the fact that they were unable to have access to the asset before taking ownership. This simply means they were unprepared for the job. No one will invest huge amount of money in a business of this scale (going by the amount of money they had to pay) and not insist on carrying out due diligence. This is why the process is facing many challenges from network delivery point of view. Discos especially have claimed that the network asset are largely dilapidated than they ever imagined and the inherited staff lack requisite skills and attitude to turn the situation around. Enough of rhetorics! we must say. Government no-doubt will have to provide intervention as recommended in part 1 of these series. A key highlight was the acceptance by the network operators of responsibility of failing to meter customers who have paid for such under the CAPMI scheme.

It is important for all customers to be metered in line with earlier suggestions. The networks need rejigging to be able to consolidate the gains of the reform process. As we speak, even if we have increased generation, the transmission network is unable to carry the electricity produced successfully. Technically speaking, this leaves no room for discussions around cost reflective tariff (CRT). Representatives of TCN lamented the spate of bureaucracy and cutting of “transmission” budget by the National Assembly as the root cause of the problem. In general, inefficiency, corruption and lack of skilled manpower have made it practically impossible to improve the net transmission capacity of TCN network in the last 2 decades. In this regard, Dr Reuben Okeke, DG NAPTIN, reiterated that the structured training program within the former PHCN was stopped 22 years ago until government revamped the department in 2009 by establishing NAPTIN, the national power training institution.

On The Just Concluded West African Power Industry Convention 2015

Matters Arising (Part 1)

By Idowu Oyebanjo

The just concluded West African Power Industry Convention (WAPIC 2015) event held from 23rd till 26th November 2015 at Eko Hotel and Suites, Lagos was a strategic hub for stakeholders looking for collaboration and joint solutions to the intractable challenges bedevilling the electrification of the West African sub-region. The main focus was the status of the Nigerian Power Sector reform. Some of the key conclusions from the event are highlighted below:

1. There is an urgent need for the new Minister in charge of Power to put together a team of technocrats with proven expertise to review the status of the power sector reform with a view to establishing and possibly dismantling bottlenecks in the entire value chain of generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Nigeria. This team, which must be apolitical, will review existing laws, policies and processes as they affect the dismal performance of the reform despite humongous amount of investment in the last 20 years. Serving as a "system architect", it will take a holistic view of the entire system from end-to-end, ensuring synergies between parallel and hitherto conflicting activities which have more often than not led to policy reversals and summersaults creating thus far the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity experienced in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) to the sheer embarrassment of all stakeholders.

 2. To be able to sustain NESI, there is an urgent need for a clear focus on localisation and capacity development for the power sector work force by strictly implementing the Nigerian Content development regulation, establishing a power academy (university for the power sector) and apprenticeships that fit into the National Vocational Qualifications (NVQs Levels 1-6), as well as  provide funding for training and research grants focusing on specific areas of need of NESI.