By Idowu
Oyebanjo
The Federal Government of Nigeria must
begin to look at the potential opportunities for Nigeria
to derive maximum benefits from the outcomes of the on-going COP 21 United
Nations Framework Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) in Le Bourget, Paris . To achieve an
optimum benefit for Nigeria, not only is it imperative that policy makers fully
understand the social, economic, environmental, financial, technological and
political issues around the subject, but the generality of Nigerians need to be
widely aware of changes in the global village they live in especially in the
way energy is to be viewed in the wider world around going forward. As the
subject of Climate Change is somewhat technical, it may suffice to give a
background on the subject before driving us through to the point we have
reached so far. This is what these series of articles on the subject will try
to achieve.
(pix: phys)
Early contributors to climate
change include Fourier, Langley and Arrhenius. That the climate is changing is
not contestable but what is being argued over the years borders on the main
causes of climate change. Climate change is made possible by the increase in
the atmospheric concentration of Green House Gases (GHG) such as Carbon IV
Oxide (CO2), Nitrous Oxide (NO2), Methane (CH4),
Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC), Perfluorocarbon (PFC), and Sulfurhexafluoride (SF6).
All these gases absorb terrestrial infra red radiations.
The Green House (GH) effect is
uncontested as without it, the earth would have been 33 degrees cooler. We
average 15 degrees now but would have been -18 degrees. Infrared radiation from
the high temperature sun has short wavelength. This is absorbed by the earth
and some are reflected by both the earth and the atmosphere. The proportion
absorbed by the earth warms up the earth to the suitable temperature required
for the earth. With increasing concentration of GHG in the atmosphere, infra
red radiations reflected into the atmosphere are absorbed and re-emitted to the
earth. This tends to increase the average temperature on the earth surface once
the concentration increases without any control. The balance between the
incoming and outgoing radiation has always fluctuated from time immemorial in
terms of the atmospheric constituents, their relative composition and
concentration, solar variations etc and so has the corresponding changes in the
climate. What has remained an argument is the degree to which the actions of
mankind have contributed to this imbalance. This is the so called Anthropogenic
Climate change which is Contestable. The disagreement exists on the degree to
which human induced changes in the atmospheric make-up have altered the balance
of the incoming and outgoing radiations. To begin with, water vapour which is
about 1% of the atmosphere is responsible for 60 to 70 % of GH effect while all
the other gases in the atmosphere, collectively making up approximately 0.04%
of the atmosphere, are responsible for the rest 30 to 40% of Green House
Effect. In terms of the radiative forcing, the Halocarbons are the most feared among
GHG, followed by Nitrous Oxides and Methane before the least effect can be
attributed to Carbon 1V Oxide. The global warming potential (GWP) is normally used
to categorize the warming effect of GHG indexed to a molecule of CO2
integrated over 100 years. CO2 has a GWP of 1, Methane-21, NO2–310,
Perfluorocarbons-9,200, Hydrofluorocarbons-11,700, Sulphur hexafluoride–23,900.
Emissions from GHG are quantified
as carbon equivalents in one of two ways viz CO2 emission and Carbon
emission. 1 tonne carbon is 3.7 tonne of CO2 (relative to molecular
weight). If you consider the global flow of carbon today to be circa 200GTp.a, and
that human-emission of carbon is 7.5GTp.a (this includes human carbon added to
the atmosphere of about 3.4GTp.a), you will see that there has been a 32%
increase in atmospheric carbon concentration since 1800. In fact, the changes
in the concentration of the main GHG in the atmosphere from pre-industrial level
to early 2001 reveal that NO2 increased from 275ppbV to 316ppbV
(increase of 15%), CO2 increased from 280ppmV to 370ppmV (increase
of 32%), and CH4 from 700ppbV to 1786ppbV (155% increase).
The measurements no doubt show the
atmospheric concentration of GHG is increasing which may imply that global and
regional temperatures are rising. Added to this, similar measurements have
proved that sea levels are rising in consistency with the predictions made by
earlier climate scientists. However, like every scientific hypothesis or
conclusions, these measurements have degrees of accuracies or put in another
way, uncertainties. For example, the uncertainties in the scientific analysis
respecting temperature rises is that as the temperature rises, the degree of
radiative forcing is modified by climate feedbacks, some positive (making it
warmer) and others negative (making it cooler). Also, there are uncertainties associated
with these feedbacks (water vapour, cloud, ocean circulation, ice snow albedo,
land-surface/atmosphere interactions) which have given rise to a range of
numbers associated with climate change with respect to temperature rises. One
Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report estimates an increase
in global average surface temperature of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees by 2100.
About 90% of human emission comes
from fossil fuel via transportation, heating, and electricity. The remaining
10% comes from Agriculture, traffic pollution and industrial processes. So,
almost all human emission or pollution is from energy. To understand the
contribution therefore of the biggest emitters or polluters in the world, the
global average mean of 1 tonne carbon/person/year is a good yardstick for
comparison. The USA had a
figure of 7 tonne carbon/person/year, the entire European Union (EU) had 3, China had 0.3 and Nigeria had 0.1 as at 2001. This
shows that 80% of all emissions are from 20% of the global population. What a
paradox! The high carbon emitters are geographically and financially able to
cope but the low carbon emitters suffer geographically and are financially
unable to cope with the effects of climate change. To make it worse for the low
emitters, they have less political influence in the global sense. Data from
1900 to 2004 shows that USA emitted 315GT of CO2, China- 89GT of CO2,
Germany- 74GT of CO2, UK- 55GT of CO2, India- 25GT of CO2, Brazil- 9GT of CO2
and Indonesia- 6GT of CO2. (1GT equals 1012 Tonnes). Scanning
through the CO2 that countries put into the atmosphere over the past
century might seem irrelevant to modern climate debates but when we consider
historical emissions like per capita emissions, it is a bone of contention at any
talks regarding climate change because developing nations will argue that any
cuts should incorporate the principle of historical responsibility which in
short means the rich and developed countries should pay in the near future for their
considerable past contributions to global warming.
What needs to be done to derive
the most benefits from the just concluded Climate talks lie with those who
understand energy. The developed nations will put such people in charge but
African leaders will allow nepotism, parochialism, anachronism, egotism, self
aggrandisement, and quota system to rob them of their only remaining benefit in
this millennium.
*Idowu Oyebanjo, MNSE CEng MIET, a Power System Professional, contributed this piece to this BLOG from the UK
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