Showing posts with label Adam Smith. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Adam Smith. Show all posts

Thursday, September 19, 2024

'Oil Curse’: Nigeria Has No viable Future As A Petrostate

 By Olu Fasan

The latest foreign trade data show that Nigeria recorded a trade balance of N6.52 trillion in the first quarter of this year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS. Expectedly, President Bola Tinubu seized on the figure as evidence that his economic reform is working. Given that the positive trade balance significantly reversed the negative balance of minus N1.4 trillion recorded in the fourth quarter of last year, one should cut Tinubu a slack. After all, a trade surplus, any trade surplus, is better than a trade deficit! 

However, dig deeper, there’s little to gloat about: for nothing has changed in the structure of Nigeria’s export trade. Crude oil exports, at N15.5 trillion, account for 80.8 per cent of the total exports. If you add other petroleum oil products, including natural gas, at N1.9 trillion or 9.92 per cent, oil and gas represent 91 per cent of Nigeria’s total exports. Thus, non-oil exports, at N1.8 trillion, account for a minuscule nine per cent of Nigeria’s total exports. Surely, then, Tinubu’s economic reform has done nothing to change the structure of Nigeria’s export trade, which remains almost totally dominated by crude oil and natural gas. 

Friday, September 13, 2024

Governing Nigeria: Does The Economy Trump Politics? No, It Doesn’t!

 By Olu Fasan

It is the age-old chicken and egg question. Which comes first: the economy or politics? That’s the question at the heart of this intervention, and it was triggered by two recent events. The first was President Bola Tinubu’s response to the call for a new Constitution. The second was Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s speech at this year’s Annual Conference of the Nigerian Bar Association, NBA, in which she called for a social contract for Nigeria. Everyone knew about those events, but few detected their logical fallacies. So, first, let’s recall the events.

Recently, in August, the highly venerated elder statesman Chief Emeka Anyaoku led a group of eminent Nigerians under the aegis of The Patriots to meet Tinubu at the State House and asked him to convene a constituent assembly to produce a draft people’s constitution for Nigeria.

Thursday, August 22, 2024

Nigeria Made Dangote A Colossus, It Must Now Handle Him Wisely

 By Olu Fasan

Aliko Dangote, the richest man in Africa, is a product of the Nigerian state. By deliberate policy choices, the state made Dangote Nigeria’s foremost oligarch with presidents on speed dial. However, recent rifts between Dangote’s oil refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, NNPC, as well as the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, NMDPRA, not to mention the raid on his business headquarters by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, suggest that all is not well with the long-running relationship between Dangote and the state. Yet, having turned Dangote into a commercial Leviathan, the state must now wisely recalibrate and manage the relationship.  

*Dangote 

To be clear, Dangote was not born poor. He was born into wealth and became a millionaire very early in life. However, his transition from a millionaire to Africa’s richest man would not have happened without a leg-up from the state, without special favours and preferential treatment from the Nigerian state. To this credit, Dangote himself admits this. Before we come to the refinery saga, let’s tell the fascinating story, as Dangote himself narrated it.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Buhari, Payment Of N5000 To The Unemployed And The Future Of Nigeria

By Arthur Agwuncha Nwankwo
The phrase “robbing Peter to pay Paul” is not new to us. It was in 1661 AD that Peter Heylyn in his Ecclesia Restaurata sought to explain the origin and import of this phrase. Though his attempt has been punctured severally by other etymologists, the phrase suggests a calamitous sequence of events where, before the Reformation, taxes had to be paid from the treasury of St. Peter’s church in Rome to defray the running costs of St. Paul’s church in London. At this time, the lands of Westminster upon which St. Paul’s church stood had become so dilapidated and badly run by Bishop Thirlby, that there was almost nothing left to support its dignity. Originally it referred to neglecting the Peter tax in order to have money to pay the Paul tax. In its proper context, this phrase simply means solving one problem in a way that makes another problem worse. 
*Dr. Arthur Nwankwo 
When this type of approach is adopted in managing the economy of a state the outcome is always disastrous especially for countries with teething economic problems. That is what I call casino or lottery economy and no country makes progress in this type of scenario. Even Adam Smith, variously referred to as the father of economics did not prescribe this type of voodoo economics despite the fact that some modern economist have interpreted his economic model as laissez-faire economics because of his insistence that the best policy by which a state can manage its economy was to leave the economy to the free play of market forces. 

Evidently, the interpretation of Smith’s postulations as laissez-faire economics could be linked to his polemics against what he called mercantilism, which was based on the principle of “robbing Peter to pay Paul”. One important role of the government in managing the economy is to provide the institutional framework required for competitive markets to function. In other words, a well-structured political system should be able to provide a secure framework for the market system to work efficiently. 

More broadly, the role of the state is to protect the members of society, both as participants in market transactions and in their private lives, from violence and invasion from other societies and oppression by other members of society. A good reading of Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations will reveal that although well-functioning markets are good for society, individual producers might well find it in their individual interests to limit competition by entering into “conspiracies against the public”. Therefore, an important role for government is to design an economic system that as far as possible discouraged the creation of private cartels and monopolies. Buhari’s economic management policies since he came on board are deficit on this principle.

I recall vividly that one of the numerous campaign promises by Buhari is that his administration would pay every unemployed Nigerian the sum of N5000 every month as welfare package pending such a time the person will be gainfully employed. At the time the promise was made and now, I have always maintained that this promise is neither feasible nor achievable for several reasons. I have read from the papers that Jigawa state government has slated March this year for the commencement of disbursement of this money to the unemployed and the poorest youths in the State.