By Bolaji Tunji
On Monday, President Muhammadu Buhari was said to have met with
three state governors from the northern part of the country. The meeting was to
discuss what is becoming a desperate, continued search for oil in the north.
Sokoto governor, Aminu Tambuwal, one of the visitors to the
president, was quoted to have called on the federal government to support the
search for oil in the Sokoto basin, as that area had been discovered to have
oil reserve as far back as 1957.
The search for oil in the north is not new. It had been on for
quite a while with enormous cost in material and human. In July, this year,
that search ended in the death of 48 people as the explorers were attacked by
Boko Haram insurgents. Five of the dead were lecturers from the University of Maiduguri , some 18 soldiers and Civilian
JTF were also among the victims. I recall the Minister of State for Petroleum,
Ibe Kachikwu, in the aftermath of the incident, saying that the NNPC had been
directed to the Boko Haram hot bed search by President Buhari in order to grow
the country’s oil reserve.
With the recent visit of northern governors to brief the
president, it is obvious that the north is not ready to give up on the search
for oil in the region in spite of the human toll. This does not make sense. Development
around the world does not support this. Many countries in Europe
are planning to jettison fossil oil for alternative, renewable energy.
The question that we should ask is; how long would it take before the search
ends and oil is discovered in commercial quantity? It is not something one
could correctly guess. A recent example. It took Tunde Folawiyo
Petroleum Company limited about 25 years of search before oil was discovered in
Badagry, Lagos .
The world is not going to wait for Nigeria . By the time oil is
discovered in the Sokoto basin or the Chad area, in commercial quantity,
which I have no doubt they would discover, the world would have moved beyond
oil.
From the next decade, the world would no longer be talking about
fossil oil but renewable energy. But who is supposed to advise the government
about this? Should it not be those in the industry, who are expected to know
the trends in the Industry, including our ministers and those in charge of the
affairs of government? This is hardly the case, the Group Managing Director of
NNPC, Dr Maikanti Baru spoke gleefully about the plan for the Sokoto basin oil
when the governor visited him about this. The governor’s spokesman quoted
Maikanti that some steps have been taken with the NNPC purchasing aeromagnetic
data which is being interpreted in order to arrive at the sedimentary thickness
and the configuration for the basin. “Secondly, we have awarded a contract for
the geological mapping of the basin and I am happy to state… samples have been
collected, mapped, analyzed and geological modeling executed so as to ensure
data integration,” according to the GMD. He added that that there were ongoing
discussions with the Integrated Data Services Limited to award a contract for,
“surface geochemistry, ground gravity and magnetic in order to determine if the
basin is generating hydrocarbon. All these would then be integrated for the
understanding of petroleum systems of the basins”.
Bottom line, we are going
ahead with exploration in the north. It does not make sense. With the current
exploration in the Niger Delta, Nigeria ’s
oil reserve will still last for the next 30 years, precisely till 2048. Before
we get to that terminal date, the world would obviously have moved to an
alternative energy form. What then do we need the oil in the north for?
As stated earlier, it took the Folawiyo’s more than two decades to discover
oil, that is a private organization. Thus if it took that long for that to
happen, discovering and exploring oil in the north, with the federal
government’s support through the NNPC, would take about 30 years, knowing how
government works with its slow, cumbersome processes, all taken into account.
Is that what the country needs now? I do not think so.
Due to damage to the environment, some countries in Europe are planning a gradual phase out of petrol and
diesel powered vehicles. Britain
had given a deadline of 2040 to completely phase out internal combustion
engine. By 2025, Norway
would have banned the use of petrol powered vehicle too. Today, Sweden is one
of the countries that can be said to be free of energy generated from fossil
oil as only three (3) percent of its electricity production is done through
fossil oil. It is planning to completely eradicate this threat and make Norway a
carbon- free society by 2050. France
and Germany
have also made similar pledges on the need to phase out internal combustion
engine. Belgium , Switzerland , and the Netherlands are said to be
considering a phase out by 2030. The European Union is also considering enforcing
the ban across its territory once a sizeable numbers of the countries key into
this. Those are the markets for our oil. What all these tell us is that within
the next few years, income from oil would have drastically gone down.
It is in view of this that one would say the search for oil in the
north is a time, money and energy wasting venture, it would eventually amount
to nought. What we have presently would take us for the period when fossil oil
would no longer be the in thing, all over the world, except in a few developing
world. Indeed, countries like Nigeria
would become dumping grounds for European vehicles that could not be converted.
What to do? A pro-active, thinking, federal government should
refocus and perish the thought of looking for oil, we do not need that effort,
rather, it should intensify efforts in agriculture. The money that would be
wasted on the unnecessary search for oil should be directed towards this.
The north of Nigeria
has the capacity to feed the entire country with its vast expanse of land. The
government should make that happen instead of looking for oil that the world
would no longer need… unless there is another motive behind the search.
*Bolaji Tunji, a columnist
with SUN newspapers, could be reached with bolajitunji@gmail.com
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