By Steve Onyeiwu
Last Saturday, Boko
Haram unexpectedly released 82 Chibok girls, after a gruesome three years in
captivity. Indeed, the entire world seemed to have moved on and forgotten these
innocent girls. While the world was outraged by the use of chemical weapons against
children in Syria ,
no one seemed to care about the fate of the Chibok girls. Former president
Olusegun Obasanjo even speculated that the girls may never be seen again.
What prompted their sudden and unexpected
release? The official spiel is that the girls had been swapped with some Boko
Haram prisoners, in a deal brokered by Switzerland and some international
NGOs. I believe, however, there are more complex reasons for their sudden
release, and that the timing is very intriguing.
First, why would Boko Haram release the girls
to an ailing President Muhammadu Buhari, who many believe has been so
incapacitated that he could no longer prosecute the war against Boko Haram? Why
would Boko Haram now be afraid and willing to negotiate with a
Commander-in-Chief who has not met with his frontline officers for a long time?
In military parlance, Boko Haram would expect the Nigerian army to be
disorganised and in retreat. Boko Haram might, therefore, assume that Nigerian
Army Chief-of-Staff, General Buratai’s recent visit to Brazil , instead
of focusing on intensifying the onslaught against Boko Haram, reflects the
army’s disorganisation and lack of command and control by the
Commander-in-Chief.
Could the release of the girls be attributed to the fact that Boko
Haram and its sponsors would want Buhari to claim credit for the girls’
release, rather than “President” Yemi Osinbajo? Could it have anything to do
with the permutations for 2019? Perhaps to ensure northern unity and stability,
Boko Haram and its benefactors may have come to the conclusion that it’s better
to release the girls under Buhari than under Osinbajo. Maybe they do not want to
see a situation whereby southerners would say: “see, your northern president
did not succeed in releasing the Chibok girls as he promised during the 2015
presidential election. Why, then, did you people castigate and voted against
former president Jonathan for his failure to secure the release of the girls?”
Could it be that the sponsors of Boko Haram
want to create a basis for power to be retained in the north in 2019? For one
thing, the economy under Buhari is still fledgling and recessionary. Inflation
and unemployment are very high, while the country continues to suffer
infrastructural decay. Although the foreign exchange market has experienced a
temporary respite, huge uncertainty still remains. It’s unclear whether the
Central Bank of Nigeria ’s
strategy of intervening in the market with massive infusion of foreign exchange
is sustainable in the long-run. Buhari’s health and his lack of effective
control of economic policies have cast doubt over his ability to turn the
economy around in a significant way. Thus, many observers expect the economy to
be in limbo for as long as the president recuperates from his illness. With all
these worrisome economic scenarios, there needs to be some positive news for
the north to cling to power in 2019, especially if Buhari decides not to run,
as is widely expected — considering his frailty. Could the release of the
Chibok girls be that positive news for the northern political elite, who are
beginning to jockey for power ahead of 2019?
There is also the “Trump Factor” that cannot
be easily jettisoned. It is possible that the release of the girls may be a
ploy by Boko Haram to shift President Trump’s focus away from the terroristic
group. Trump is known for his disdain for terrorist groups such as ISIS and its affiliates. During the U.S.
presidential campaigns he often referred to the threats posed by Boko Haram,
and criticised former president Barack Obama’s ineffectiveness in taming Boko
Haram. Trump is always looking for the slightest opportunity to demonstrate his
hawkish disposition. As Hilary Clinton always reminds us, Trump can be provoked
by a mere tweet. Boko Haram is savvy enough to know that Trump is
unpredictable, and would not hesitate to mobilise U.S. forces to decimate the
terroristic group. In his telephone conversations with President Buhari last
February, Trump promised to assist the president in the fight against Boko
Haram. I’m sure Boko Haram’s de facto leader, Abubakar Shekau, heard that
promise loud and clear. It is interesting that the girls were released just a
few weeks after Trump launched tomahawk missiles against Assad, and a few days
after he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to coordinate their
attacks against terrorist groups worldwide.
In the euphoria that accompanied the girls’
release, it is easy to forget what led to their kidnap in the first place.
While there are speculations about the motives for their abduction, what is
indisputable are the underlying economic conditions that have fostered the
emergence of groups such as Boko Haram, Indigenous Peoples Organisation of
Biafra (IPOB), Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra
(MASSOB), Niger Delta Avengers, etc. These groups emerged during a period of
unprecedented economic deprivation in the country. The groups are populated by
youths with no economic opportunities and a very bleak future. These youths
grew up in a very inequitable and non-inclusive country, where stupendous
affluence is juxtaposed with chronic poverty. They grew up in a country where
monumental corruption is not only institutionalised, but also where proceeds
from graft are often flaunted and celebrated. While Boko Haram may well be
defeated someday, or some say have already been defeated, other violent forms
of protest may emerge in the future, unless Nigeria ’s rapacious economic
deprivations are urgently addressed.
The release of the girls has also dispelled
two misconceptions. Contrary to the baloney peddled by ardent supporters of
former President Goodluck Jonathan, that the girls were kidnapped to
“harass” him out of the 2015 presidential race. If the motive was to harass him
out of the race, the girls would have been released shortly after he lost the
election. The fact that Boko Haram kept the girls for two years after the
election suggests that their disappearance had nothing to do with Jonathan.
Second, the release of the girls after three years in captivity is a clear
testimony that Boko Haram is not some rag-tag terrorist group, as some have
insinuated. It is a meticulously organised entity, with a very disciplined
chain of command. Holding over 200 girls against their will for over three
years is not a cake-walk! And keeping those girls from the prying eyes of
sophisticated international security agents suggests that this is a seasoned
and professional terroristic group. Be that as it may, we celebrate the girls’
return, and hope that the remaining girls will soon be released to their
beleaguered families.
*Dr. Onyeiwu is Professor and Chair, Department of
Economics, Allegheny College, Meadville ,
Pennsylvania , USA .
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