GDP Growth Report: Whose Figures?

 By Adekunle Adekoya

“There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.” — Mark Twain (1835-1910). Please note that Mark Twain himself attributed it to former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli (1804-1881)

Last Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, released a report on the National Gross Domestic Product for Q1 2024, that is, the first three months of this year. On its website, NBS gave the following overview: Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.98% (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2024.

This growth rate is higher than the 2.31% recorded in the first quarter of 2023 and lower than the fourth quarter of 2023 growth of 3.46%. The performance of the GDP in the first quarter of 2024 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 4.32% and contributed 58.04% to the aggregate GDP.

The agriculture sector grew by 0.18%, from the growth of -0.90% recorded in the first quarter of 2023. The growth of the industry sector was 2.19%, an improvement from 0.31% recorded in the first quarter of 2023. In terms of share of the GDP, the services sector contributed more to the aggregate GDP in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the corresponding quarter of 2023.

The high points of the NBS report, which elicited reactions indicated GDP growth for third quarter of 2024 as 3.46 per cent and Unemployment rate for the same quarter as 5.0 per cent. 

Naturally, a population of people looking for anything to brighten their otherwise gloomy experience, which persisted for the eight years of the Buhari administration, but worsened since May 29, 2023 should heave a sigh of relief that things are getting on the mend. But not so fast, as many stakeholders opted to take the report with a pinch of salt, and in fact began to query the veracity of the report.

An interesting reaction came from one of the political organisations in the country. Really, politicians generally do not make statements about the economy here, preferring to wheel and deal behind the scenes to cut their unfair share of the proverbial national cake. So, it was quite interesting that the Conference of United Political Parties, CUPP, opted to react to the NBS report. 

Its National Secretary, Chief Peter Ameh, said in a statement in Abuja, that: “The NBS recently announced that the country’s GDP grew by 3.46 per cent in the third quarter of 2024. At first glance, this may seem like a positive development, but the reality on the ground tells a different story.

“The widespread hunger, starvation, unemployment, inflation, and crumbling infrastructure paint a picture of a nation in distress. It is alarming to see the stark contrast between the reported GDP growth and the harsh economic realities faced by Nigerians.” That’s Take One.

Take 2: The umbrella body of employers in the country, the Nigeria Employers Consultative Association, NECA, was equally not enamoured of the report, and in fact advised NBS to be more inclusive when it comes to national survey participation and involve more private sector players. NECA’s D-G, Adewale Smatt-Oyerinde said: “Typically, economic growth is expected to drive job creation. 

However, despite a 3.42 per cent GDP growth, unemployment has paradoxically risen to 5.0 per cent, rather than declining as anticipated. The operating environment is still fraught with innumerable challenges, ranging from regulatory, tax, infrastructure gap, including high energy cost, inflation, declined sales revenue, insecurity and negative effect of capital flight, “japa syndrome” and many more.

The two commentaries cited above are enough to call to question the integrity of the NBS Report. It is also interesting that this is one NBS Report that the Presidency decided to celebrate. A presidential spokesman, Mr Sunday Dare, in a statement made available to newsmen said that: “The 3.46 per cent growth indicates Nigeria is recovering from the reforms’ unintended effects.  

“President Tinubu said his administration has not and will never forget his promise of a $1 trillion economy by 2030. He assured that once the economy is rebased by early 2025 to capture its dynamism and record significant changes that have occurred in different sectors, the country will be on its way to shared prosperity.”

The statement explained that the latest GDP growth in the third quarter was driven by key sectors such as Agriculture, Transport, Education, Health, Real Estate, Finance and Insurance, ICT, Trade, and Manufacturing. 

“This performance once again shows that the reforms embarked upon by the Tinubu administration to reposition the economy and ensure better fiscal management are beginning to yield fruits,” Dare’s statement said.

That the Presidency is celebrating the GDP growth figures indicates that the tune being played by the piper is coming from his paymaster. It is a shame that amidst the privations Nigerians are going through, we still can refuse to tell ourselves the truth. How did the  Agriculture, Transport, Education, Health, Real Estate, Finance and Insurance, ICT, Trade, and Manufacturing sectors grow the GDP? It is now more important to query the metrics used by NBS in generating its report. 

How did the Transport sector help GDP growth with the current price of petrol and diesel? With hospitals nearly empty of healthcare professionals as a result of the Japa syndrome, and the high cost of medicaments because of the exchange rate, it is difficult to see how the Health sector could have grown. Same applies to Education, ICT, and Trade, all of which have been buffeted relentlessly by the exchange rate.

As for the NBS, if it has decided to bow to political pressure in the discharge of its duties, then we have incubated and hatched a gigantic problem. When the economy is rebased next year, NBS should not expect us to believe what it tells us. Besides, data, reliable data in the modern world, is life, and a key tool used in making investment decisions. 

When the data is no longer reliable, the investors have no template to work with and may not come. Real, unintended trouble is here. I advise NBS to go back to reality when next it releases its report, not because we like to read bad things about our country, but just that we know exactly where the shoe is pinching at all times.

*Adekoya is a commentator on public issues