A Peep Into 2024 Nigeria

 By Owei Lakemfa

The  year 2023 held a lot of hope for Nigerians as the Buhari administration  which had put the country on autopilot, was programmed to end its tenure by mid-year. Indeed, the past year had begun as a traumatic one with a currency change   which impoverished the people as they could not readily access their  bank accounts or money.

The Naira, rather than be a means of exchange became a commodity traded in the streets. The local currency was  so  scarce that people paid as high as 15-20 per-cent as commission for Naira notes.  Unfortunately, in the first seven months of the Tinubu administration, governance has not changed in a fundamental way. If  anything, the economy for the people got worse with the ill-advised and ruinous increases in PMS prices and the water boarding of the of the Naira. These are the major factors   that  pushed inflation  to 28.2 per-cent. Also in 2023, the Tinubu government was unable to end the scarcity of the Naira leading to it being traded in the streets, sometimes at rates as high as 10 per-cent.

The general elections were also rancorous and so contentious that nine months later, it continues to dominate discussions. A peep into 2024 does not show fundamental changes unless the vision and  the constellation of ideas shift from the constructs of  the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, IMF  to a pro-people one that puts Nigeria first and takes advantage of various initiatives such as currency swap   and the mutually beneficial offers  of the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, BRICS countries.

INSECURITY

Insecurity  is the most fundamental challenge to Nigerians as it speaks directly to the right to life, movement and  other all rights.  Unfortunately, there are no structures in place to guarantee security whether of the farmer or worker, manufacturer or trader.  Unless the economy improves and measures such as establishing Community and State police, and empowering the people for self-defence are put in place, insecurity may worsen in 2024 in comparison with the previous year.

In 2023, there were monthly raids by marauders against the people of  Plateau  State culminating in the Christmas attacks which took over 200 lives.  Unless the Tinubu administration correctly sees the attackers as criminals rather than alleged herders looking for grazing routes, the situation in 2024 will not improve, it might actually get worse.

Also, tension in the country can be reduced in the new year if the administration dialogues with people and groups like the  Ohaneze, Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB, Afenifere, Arewa Consultative Forum, the Ijaw National Congress, INC  the Middle Belt Forum and major groups that represent various ethnic nationalities in the country. As a first step, it should set  IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu free and initiate discussions with him.  We should learn from  contemporary history which has shown that the more the country clamps down on self-actualization groups, the more strident are their replacements.

 For instance, government clamped down on the Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra, MASSOB led by Ralph Uwazuruike, only for the Benjamin Onwuka-led Biafra Zionist  Federation, BZF  to rise.  The BZF  tried  to seize the Enugu Broadcasting Service and march on the Enugu Government House. IPOB  led by Nnamdi Kanu  was much more militant than the older groups, and when Kanu was abducted in Nairobi and detained in Nigeria, a far more fiery leader, Simon Ekpa arose.

Also, religious tension can be reduced in 2024,  if the leader of the Islamic Movement  in Nigeria, Ibrahim Zakzaky is released after eight years in detention. Since  2015,  the courts have granted himself and his wife bail which the Buhari government refused to obey. There is no reason whatsoever for the Tinubu government  to inherit the enemies of the Buhari  administration.

ECONOMY

The country is witnessing de-industrialization with  more manufacturers    like the GlaxSmithKline, GSK, most of Unilever,  and Procter and Gamble  leaving the country in 2023.

In the same year, the  Small Scale  Industrialists reported  that Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises   were shutting down daily. The estimate is that in the seven months of the Tinubu administration, about four million such businesses have shut down  due to the increases in the price of PMS and unfavourable business climate. These translate to massive job losses.

In 2024, unless the administration changes direction from its  neo-liberal policies, introduces  more creative economic initiatives and brings in people  with alternative thoughts, the economy may  become worse.

A positive turnaround of the economy is impossible with so called market forces, but is possible   by state-driven initiatives which have been lacking since 1986.

No serious country submits  its economy, currency  and people to the vagaries of market forces over which, in the first place, it has no control. All industrialized countries  developed   with the public sector as engine-room.

INFLATION

The rate of inflation  which   soared in 2023  to  28.2 per-cent is likely to be brought down.  If  West African countries like  Burkina Faso , Niger, Mali and Benin can have inflation rates at less than 4 per-cent, there is no reason why that of Nigeria can also not be single digit.

FUEL PRICES

The astronomical increases in the price of petrol (PMS) from May 29, 2023 has been the most damaging  to the people and the economy.  Transporting food stuff has become so prohibitive that the cost of production is far lower than the cost of transportation.

Fuel price  may rise again in 2024 given the pressures of the World Bank  and its dictation to  the Tinubu administration.  The five  main factors that can stop this are if local refining is restored in the public refineries; the Dangote Refinery begins production and the company   is willing to sell its products to Nigerians at   reasonable prices; the prices of crude oil drops significantly or the Tinubu government rejects the dictation of the Western-controlled  international  finance organisations and their mother countries. The fifth factor that can stop the fuel price increases is  if we the people  reject it and stand up in a  united struggle  against  the further  impoverishment of the Nigerian people.

DEMOCRACY

The sluggish democratic system would continue to rumble in 2024. However, the Federal and State Governments  must  realise that democracy is not a theology or belief. Rather, it is a collective investment  by the people who expect  dividends and good governance. 

But if the people  conclude that it is not a productive venture, they will neither protect nor defend it if it comes under attack.  Therefore, governments at all levels should in 2024, strive to serve the people. Otherwise, they will endanger themselves, the system, democrats and the people.

Happy New Year 2024.

*Lakemfa is a commentator on public issues