Palliatives In Nigeria = Two Cups Of Grains!

 By Dele Sobowale

“Blessed are they that expect nothing; for they shall never be disappointed” – Pessimist motto.

Hope renewed is becoming increasingly dream deferred. When President Tinubu announced during the inaugural address that “subsidy is gone”; and followed that with partial harmonization of exchange rates, the “hit the ground running” brigade went berserk with jubilation.

At last, a courageous leader, ready to make the tough decisions and set the nation on sustainable economic prosperity, has arrived. Those of us, who knew from bitter experiences in Nigeria and abroad, were not so sure all was well. We counseled balancing hope with realism. Talk is cheap.

Reality intruded in the jubilation in less than a week after the subsidy removal announcement. Fuel prices escalated triggering an inflation spiral affecting transport and food prices first. Other prices – school fees, medicine, rent, clothes, cars and trucks etc – are getting set to add to the economic predicaments of citizens nationwide. In less than two weeks, the economic repercussions of the two policy statements became so overwhelming that the Federal Government was forced to introduce palliatives to cushion the negative impacts of subsidy removal. The first measure – giving N8, 000 to 12 million households – was so impractical as to unleash pervasive contempt and outrage before it was hastily withdrawn. But, that was not before exposing Tinubu as being ill-prepared before taking the tough decisions. A new approach was required.

“A camel is a horse designed by committee” – American Wisecrackers.

Enter the National Economic Council, NEC, which like most committees, populated by politicians — active or retired, military or civilian – usually make situations good or bad worse. The 2023 Class of NEC has not disappointed us. By putting their stamp of approval on the payment of N5 billion to every state, irrespective of population, land mass, percentage of population living in poverty etc, the NEC 2023, actually made the situation much worse. How much worse has been captured in the title of this column today.

‘BETTER TO TELL IT STRAIGHT’

I found myself as an intern in an advertising agency in New York City during my MBA programme, in Boston, in the summer of 1969. As only one of two in our class majoring in marketing, while everybody else went for finance, preparatory to going to Wall Street, it was mandatory to know how advertising works. As the Head of Marketing in any company, you are responsible for advertising in all its aspects. Soon, I found myself in the Body Copy section of the agency – those wordsmiths who mint the words that are so captivating.

 One day I was assigned to writing an advert for a new brand of coffee. I conducted research into the history of branded coffee, ranked all existing brands – among other investigations. Then, I wrote an essay to persuade consumers to buy the coffee. I was pleased with myself. My Supervisor was not. He sent my rubbish back to me with an everlasting lesson: “Better to tell it straight.” In the end, the campaign was “The coffee that lets you sleep.”

As I followed the story of palliatives and Fig’s aspirational statements and actual deliveries of food palliative, it occurred to me that the government of Nigeria has defaulted on its promissory note of providing food for Nigerians. Instead of honouring the sacred obligation, they have given the poor people as well as the Middle Class a bad cheque. I was in contact with scouts in several states and Local Governments in order to find out how much food people were receiving from governments. There were variations in the items issued; but there were also similarities. In the end, I discovered to my horrors that what Nigerians, “lucky” to get anything, received were just two cups of rice, beans, garri etc.

There was only one way to report this colossal fraud and that was to reduce it to a formula: Palliatives = two cups of grains (palliatives equal two cups of grains)

It is easier and better for all of us to bear in mind what is on offer – in case we are called upon to come and collect our own share of the palliatives. We should have an idea of what we are going to get; in exchange for all the inconveniences as well as risks to life and limbs going there. Furthermore, Tinubu and NEC 2023, in their infinite wisdom, have deliberately excluded every nineteen Nigerians out of twenty from any palliative. For those excluded, the pains of policy changes must be endured without any relief. This government does not give a damn about us. We are on our own.

SUFFER LITTLE CHILDREN

“There is no keener revelation of a society’s soul than the way it treats its children” – Nelson Mandela, 1915-2013.

People my age have given up hope that Nigeria will ever have a President who approximates Mandela in patriotism, selflessness, great foresight and good governance. The headlong dive into “subsidy is gone”, which has landed us in a quagmire, overlooked the option of tapering – gradual but deliberate withdrawal based on investigation to determine how much of it was fraudulent and who was involved. Unfortunately for all of us, the strongest impacts of what has happened, since May 29, 2023, will be felt this month – when parents with children in schools, from nursery to university, are faced with unprecedented bills to pay for everything from tuition and uniforms, to books, bags and bus fare.

Mrs. Y, a single mother with three kids to send back to school, represents millions of parents who have the toughest decision of their lives to make about children’s education. Fees have, at least doubled, lunch money and transport fare have tripled and books have gone through the roof. I was in Ibadan last week to discuss my next book with the Publisher. Naturally, the conversation drifted to prices of text books for the next session. On account of the cost of various types of imported paper, some have gone up by 250 per cent. Pity parents whose take home pay has not increased by one per cent. Mrs. Y took out a calculator; added up all the bills; and discovered that only one child can return to school in September. Involuntarily, she unleashed curses and maledictions on those who brought this tragedy on Nigeria.

Parents, with more than one kid, now face an economic and moral dilemma. Who do you now send to school and who stays home? Or do they all stay home? The girl-child will once again be the first victim and the number of out-of-school children will escalate past the dreadful figures Buhari left behind. Tinubu might inadvertently found himself breaking Buhari’s records on children out of school.

That is what you get from hitting the ground running – without looking around first. The FG has stumbled into a major crisis that might blow up in our faces.

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT

“A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul” – George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950.

Fuel subsidy payment, right from the start, was a government approved fraud – which was sustainable as long as the cost of importing fuel was less that the dollar revenue generated from crude oil exports. The scammers and government just did not know when to stop when under Buhari, fuel import bill consumed all dollar revenue. Buhari, economic illiterate, opted for taking loans to pay the bills. It was a fatal error. But, now that we realize that the “elite of elites” have brought us to a dead end, Tinubu can only expect the peoples’ allegiance by identifying the culprits and administering appropriate punishment. Otherwise Nigerians will hold him responsible for their predicaments.

PRESIDENT TINUBU IS SINGING OUR SONG

“Can we continue to service external debts with 90% of our revenue? It is a path to destruction. It is not sustainable…” – President Bola Tinubu, Abuja, August 2023.

Buhari mindlessly led Nigeria into what Tinubu called “a path to destruction”. He did it in collaboration with his most incompetent Ministers of Finance. He did it by compromising the Central Bank of Nigeria and getting the bank to release funds, illegally, without approval from the National Assembly. Most of all, he did it with pride. Until his last day in office, he declared repeatedly that he “left Nigeria better than he found it”. Posterity will wonder about Buhari and us.

Members of the All Progressives Congress, APC, including Tinubu, saw nothing, said nothing and pretended all was well. Only the patriotic opposition, mostly economists, writing for various newspapers raised their voices in protest. I wrote nothing less than 34 articles pointing to how Buhari was leading us to economic precipice. The patriots were ignored. I feel vindicated that an APC successor has finally admitted that Buhari has ruined us.   

NB: Lai Mohammed, Garba Shehu and Femi Adesina should send rejoinders to that statement – if they have the guts.

*Dr. Sobowale is a commentator on public issues