Nigeria: Must We Have This Census Now?

 By Adekunle Adekoya

It is no longer news that the Federal Government has activated plans to conduct a national population and housing census next month. The last time we had a census was March 2006. There is nothing bad in having a census; indeed, a lot of benefits will accrue if we really know how many of us are together in this country.

Historically, the first census was conducted in 1866 and this was followed by Censuses of 1871, 1881, 1891 and 1901. However, all these earlier censuses were restricted to Lagos Colony and its environs. The 1871 census marked the beginning of decennial census in Nigeria in line with British tradition of census-taking every 10 years.

Following the amalgamation of the Lagos Colony and the Southern Protectorate in 1906, the 1911 census extended to some parts of the Southern Protectorate. It was marred by incomplete enumeration because some parts of the South had not recognised the legitimacy of the Colonial Government. 

The amalgamation of the Southern and Northern protectorates in 1914 by Lord Lugard provided the impetus for population census that had wider coverage. Like in other censuses, the results of 1921 census were population estimates based on tax records as the aged, infants and tax evaders were excluded. 

Similarly, in the then Northern region, during the period mentioned above, the census result was based on population estimates from existing records or vital statistics. 

When we started managing our affairs, few censuses in our history have been held that have not turned out to be controversial. The 1962 census held in May of that year, but the results were not acceptable to the regions, which alleged politicisation of the results. Rejection of the outcomes of the census of 1962 prompted the 1963 census which itself equally became controversial as there were claims that the results were arrived at by negotiation rather than enumeration. 

The result was contested at the Supreme Court which ruled that it lacked jurisdiction over the administrative functions of the Federal Government. This was followed by the 1973 census, conducted between November 25 and December 2. The result was not published on the grounds of deliberate falsification of the census figures for political and /or ethnic advantages. 

The 1991 Census was conducted under Decree 23 of 1989 which set up the National Population Commission. It was conducted all over the country from November 27 to December 2, 1991.This was the most scientific and most acceptable until the 2006 Population and Housing Census. 

In March 2006, Nigeria, for the first time, conducted a Population and Housing Census. Several stages were involved in the project. For the first time, the use of GPS and Satellite Imagery to carve out Geo-referenced EAs (Enumeration Areas) was adopted. Also machine readable forms were used to record information from respondents. Even the 2006 census was not without its controversies. 

It is on record that the Lagos State Government rejected the census figure of 9.1 million ascribed to the state, and took its grievances before the census tribunal. As late as January 2010, the matter was yet to be disposed of as the state filed 19 fresh complaints before the census tribunal in Abuja. Also, Plateau State Government rejected the figure of three million as the state’s population, saying that “it raises more questions than answers.” Apart from Plateau, others that generated issues with the 2006 census include former governor of Abia State, Orji Uzor Kalu, Nasarawa State, and the FCT.

On August 30, 2013, the National Census Tribunal sitting in Abuja, nullified the results of the 2006 Census in 14 local governments in Lagos State. It said the reasons for the decision include illegal and inaccurate counting. The tribunal therefore ordered a fresh headcount in the constitutionally created Local Council Development Areas in the state. 

The foregone are just snippets from our last census experience. You may wish to recall the fallouts of the last elections, especially the governorship and state assemblies elections in the states and the tensions arising therefrom, which are barely just abating. You may also wish to add the debilitating effects of the currency re-design project, which has mauled the productive capabilities of the average Nigerian so badly that individual and community economies are gasping for breath, even as the overall national economy is asphyxiating under the onslaught of insecurity and runaway inflation. Must we have this census now? Why not later, some other time?

Apart from these, I have a gut feeling that this administration, on its way out, should hands off matters as weighty as census-taking. I personally have no belief in the ability of this administration to handle a census. Plus, it seems to me that government is biting more than it can chew. It plans to remove subsidy on petrol and fund palliatives with a $800 million World Bank grant. The conditionalities of the $800 million grant include the birthing of a brand new bureaucracy to administer the palliatives, at a time government itself is in transition. 

The Buhari administration should just concentrate on its hand-over notes instead of trying to execute new projects like census-taking, or administering palliatives, or trying to deliver a new national carrier, Nigeria Air, as the Aviation Minister had boasted. In any case, the President had said many times that he’s eager to go; I can say on behalf of at least 150 million Nigerians that we can’t wait; we’d rather he’s gone already!

*Adekoya is a commentator on public issues