How Many Presidents Will Atiku Make Of Ndigbo?

 By Amanze Obi

Atiku Abubakar’s announcement in Asaba, Delta State, last week that their son, Ifeanyi Okowa, would succeed him, should he become the President of Nigeria in 2023, says a lot about the delicate and intricate balancing that Atiku is dealing with. The man is working hard to penetrate the Igbo nation from either the east or the west.

*Atiku and Soludo 

It all began in Enugu some weeks earlier when Atiku told a gathering of southeasterners that he would ensure that they take their turn at the presidency, if they support him to become President in 2023. With these pronouncements, Atiku surely knows what the Igbo want. They are hungry for the presidency and Atiku is dangling the carrot at them at every turn. He wants them to see him as the vehicle that will take them to Damascus.

Beyond this, Atiku’s constant reference to what he would do for the Igbo to attain the presidency is indicative of a certain dilemma. He is caught between two stools and he is working hard to strike a balance. Atiku’s choice of Okowa, a western Igbo, over and above an Igbo of the eastern flank, is part of the balancing act. Atiku did not want to fish in the Igbo heartland for obvious reasons. It could be a leap in the dark and may well end up as an exercise in futility.

So, why was Atiku scared stiff of the Igbo heartland for the 2023 race? Analysts say he was trying to run away from a backlash. The South East, he must have reasoned, will be difficult to manage this time. This thinking was informed by the realities of the moment. The South East had, early enough, beckoned on Nigerians to give the Igbo a chance at the presidency. They particularly called on the two dominant political parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), to cede their presidential tickets to the South East. But the appeal fell on deaf ears. Neither the APC nor the PDP cared a hoot. But the PDP appeared more culpable. 

It was accused of throwing overboard its zoning arrangement for the sake of one man. That man is Atiku Abubakar, who emerged as the candidate of the party at the presidential primary. Thus, Atiku, from the outset, was being perceived in certain quarters as a usurper who bulldozed his way into a territory he cannot lay legitimate claim to. That was why a good many of his listeners in Enugu said he sounded insensitive and disrespectful. Some others felt that his pronouncement was an assault to the well considered position of the Igbo that it is their turn to occupy the office of President at this time. Atiku, certainly, may not have been perturbed by what anybody said or failed to say on the issue. His fixation is the presidency and anything that seems to detract from it will be confronted frontally.

Atiku’s pronouncement, be it in Enugu or Asaba, fits into the mould of political talk. A politician usually gauges the mood of his audience and tells them what he thinks they want to hear. Atiku knows too well that the Igbo are earnestly yearning for the presidency. Consequently, he set out to whet their appetite by promising them that he would help them to get to the Promised Land. But his point of departure with the Igbo is that an overwhelming majority of them want to have a taste of the presidency now, not later. They argue that all parameters of equity, justice and fairness favour them. Regrettably, this appears to sound inchoate to those who ought to make sense out of the Igbo argument.

But the argument and its counterpoise, whatever they may be, belong to the past. What everyone appears to be waiting for is how the presidential election of next month will play out. Whereas Atiku is hoping for what will be best for him, a good many Igbo are keeping their fingers crossed. They are hoping too that 2023 could mark the end of their journey in political wilderness.

But what, in fact and in truth, is Atiku’s actual intention and plan for the Igbo, should he become the President? This question is highly hypothetical and tentative considering the fact that Peter Obi, a southeasterner, is working hard to snatch the presidency from the old order. Whatever may be the case, the pertinent question is: which section of the Igbo will Atiku want to make president, if the choice were to be his? Is it the Igbo of the east or of the west? Is there any nexus between his pronouncement in Enugu and that of Asaba? Dissecting and situating these questions is at the root of the politics that has been playing out since Atiku made his choice of a vice presidential candidate.

In making his choice, Atiku was deft and pragmatic. He was not going to consider the Igbo of the South East because they have been vehement in their insistence that the next President after President Muhammadu Buhari should come from their zone. In fact, southeasterners, at the time the jostling for the presidential ticket of the PDP was on, were not keen on Atiku. They wanted one of their own to assume the office. Atiku knew this pretty well. That was why he did not dangle the vice presidential carrot at them. He knew they would not be attracted to it.

But then, Atiku was not going to go for outright divorce with the Igbo. And so he had to look westwards. It was a middle-ground approach. But whether that satisfied the wishes and yearnings of the greater majority of the Igbo is a different matter. Atiku knows that the issue is delicate and he has been trying to navigate through the political mine field. But hitches and hiccups are bound to take place. 

Whatever the undercurrents may be, Atiku may wish to know that Igbo presidency can only be said to have been realized when the mainstream Igbo feel accommodated. But Atiku does not want a strict categorization. That is why he would promise them presidency in Enugu with one mindset and promise them the same thing in Asaba with a different mindset. Then you ask: how many President will Atiku make of Ndigbo?

In whatever way the intricate balancing plays out, Atiku may have to live and stay with his choice. That is what he is doing. He is hoping that it will pay off ultimately. But the obverse side of Atiku’s optimism remains the Peter Obi factor. It counterbalances whatever effort Atiku is making to balance the interest of the Igbo. 

With Obi in the mix, Atiku’s effort at accommodating the Igbo now looks one-sided. Whereas the Igbo of the west may feel a sense of belonging under an Atiku order, the same thing cannot be said of the Igbo of the east. They feel like outsiders in the Atiku project. This is the ultimate jinx the Atiku presidential project is saddled with.

*Dr. Obi is a commentator on public issues