The revival of progressives in Yorubaland can only be credited
to him. Every AD governor elected in 1999 lost re-election. Tinubu, in Lagos,
was the last man standing. From that position, he patiently re-built the
progressive movement in the SW and in Edo State as well. The history of
Nigerian politics can never be accurate or complete without several mentions of
Tinubu’s contributions from 1993 till today.
Despite the feeling of gratitude on behalf of progressives,
politics is dynamic. Interests change; and that is why there are no permanent
friends or enemies – only permanent interests. That notwithstanding, I still
have a great deal of anxiety for Jagaban; particularly with respect to the
situation in which he finds himself now. It was no news to me when he announced
that he brought Buhari out of well-deserved retirement.
The two men hatched a deal, unknown to other APC members. It was
going to be a “turn-by-turn” affair in Aso Rock; with Buhari going first.
Buhari went first; and instead of openly backing Emilokan for the job forced
Asiwaju to fight for the ticket. Even now, the APC President has been largely absent
from the campaign effort; unlike Obasanjo who imposed Yar ‘Adua and led the
campaign in 2007. Buhari is in London now until mid-November. Only Allah knows
where else he will go next. Indifference cannot be better demonstrated.
Horns Of Dilemma
“Some great misfortune to portend; no enemy can match a friend”
– Jonathan Swift, 1667-1745
To be quite candid, Buhari and Tinubu were not friends before
Asiwaju initiated their political marriage of convenience. It is even doubtful
if they have become closer since the formation of the APC. For both of them,
that was a strategic alliance which has so far paid off for Buhari. Whether
Tinubu will also benefit remains to be seen. He definitely has a mountain to
climb; made more rugged by the President he aims to succeed.
To be sure, Emilokan has already committed his own blunders;
but, his greatest “enemy” is Buhari government’s performance. That is simply
atrocious. Unfortunately, Tinubu is caught on the horns of a dilemma. He needs
Buhari’s support for the Northern vote. But, even most of the Arewa elite
appear to be disenchanted with Buhari. Their people feel the lashes of Buhari’s
rule and cannot wait to see him go.
It is just like what is happening in the US now. None of the
Democratic Party members up for election wants President Biden to campaign for
them; because his ratings are low. But, as party loyalists, they cannot openly
criticise their party leader. Similarly, neither Tinubu nor other APC
candidates for office can denounce Buhari. That has given the other candidates
a wicked advantage. They know that most Nigerians are sick and tired of Buhari;
and the opponents are saying what Nigerians want to hear.
Continuity Of What Exactly?
“Rowing harder is not an option when the boat is heading towards
a waterfall.”
Tinubu also has my sympathies with respect to the issue of
continuity. The more he repeats it, the more fears he raises in the minds of
sensible Nigerians. Again, since this is not a comprehensive analysis of the
manifesto, I will limit myself to a few running disasters and then ask Asiwaju
if he wants to continue with those.
One, the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural
Organisation, UNESCO, recently published a report stating that the population
of Nigerian out-of-school children is now 20 million. It was 6 million in 2015.
Under Buhari two million more kids have been added to the dreadful number every
year. Will Tinubu continue to add 2 million a year?
Two, debt burden has risen from under N15 trillion in May 2015
to almost N42 trillion in August of 2022. That means additional debt burden of
N4 trillion annually. Every economic and financial expert, the Central Bank of
Nigeria, CBN, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, IMF, and the
African Development Bank, AfDB, are unanimous in proclaiming the debt repayment
unsustainable. Yet, Buhari is set to add about N10 trillion more debt before
departure from office next year. Will this “borrow-and-spend” fiscal policy be
continued under Tinubu?
Three, on May 29, 2015, the official exchange rate was about
N199/US$1; parallel rate about N250/US$1. Today, November 4, 2022, the rates
are N440/US$1 and N890/US$1 respectively. Given a highly import-dependent
economy, and the devastation of the Nigerian economy brought about by the
upward-bound exchange rate, will a Tinubu government take us to N800/US$1 and
N2,000/US$1? If not, why not?
Four, because the CBN was successfully targeting inflation; and
because Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, a world class economist, was Minister of
Finance, Buhari inherited single digit inflation. Today, we are getting closer
to 21 per cent, may eventually reach 30 by the time Buhari goes. Are we to
expect that Tinubu will take us beyond 40 per cent as part of the continuity
programme?
Five, another rainy season is coming next year; so is another
flood. Buhari, through outright negligence, like most world leaders, ensured
that Nigeria was ill-prepared for the devastation which occurred. Trillions of
Naira worth of properties was lost; so were lives as well as a lot of food
meant for next year. Will Tinubu also turn deaf ears to the global clamour for
governments to be pro-active and plan to reduce the carnage when the next flood
occurs; or will he jet out to a conference when disaster strikes as part of the
continuity?
There are so many aspects of our lives which Buhari will leave
in shambles when he leaves – six years after and the 40 per cent of
Lagos-Ibadan expressway remains unfinished, ASUU is waiting; bandits are still
ferocious; herdsmen continue to destroy farms and food supply, and more
universities are graduating more unemployable people, APC corruption has
trumped every previous ones, etc; which of these will be subject to continuity?
Tinubu cannot disregard the Buhari administration woeful record
without paying the penalty for it. He needs Buhari like he needs a shot in the
head.
Afenifere: A Coup That Failed
“It is quite impossible for those who want to gain power, to
avoid getting rid of those people who are most likely to form an opposition” –
Critias, 404BC, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ , p 196
There was nothing surprising to me about the Tinubu Campaign
Organisation’s, TCO, attempt to break the ranks of the Afenifere. In fact, it
would have been absolutely negligent of them not to do it. With the Acting Chairman,
Chief Adebanjo, adamantly opposed to any Yoruba candidate contesting; and
canvassing for Igbo presidency, the die was cast for a classic confrontation.
Pa Reuben Fasoranti, also totally in support of another Yoruba shot at the
position, was caught in the middle. TCO went for Pa Fasoranti whose forgiving
spirit must be Christ-like given Tinubu’s attempt to downplay the role of
herdsmen in his daughter’s murder.
Certainly, Tinubu and his entourage must have been
congratulating themselves after leaving Pa Fasoranti for the success of their
coup. Chief Adebanjo, as intended, has, apparently and finally, been isolated
and Afenifere was once again in TCO’s grasp. They were dead wrong. Chief
Adebanjo has always been a deadly political fighter. Pa Fasoranti is no match
for him. The TCO scored a short pyrrhic victory; but Chief Adebanjo is still
the de facto Acting Chairman of, an admittedly divided, Afenifere.
With this humiliation, it is unlikely that Pa Fasoranti will
again comment on presidential politics of 2023. I feel sorry for Pa Fasoranti;
who, like the comedians, dressed as Bishops, has inadvertently walked into a
political mine-field created by TCO. He should remember what Afenifere suffered
in 2003. In the end, one is often sad when long and close comrades fight
openly. There is no fight as heart-rending as the fight between the closest of
comrades over notions of betrayal. I respect the two old men. I feel bad about
this matter. Pity.
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