The drab Nigerian political environment has lightened up. The
expected ‘unexpected’ happened. Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President of
Nigeria was elected at the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) primaries held in Port Harcourt recently.
It looked like this was never going to happen. Not just that this was the fifth
attempt of Atiku to become presidential candidate, but so much obstacle was put
on his way by seen and unseen forces. As if those forces were not strong
enough, the competition became even stiff in his new ‘old party.’ For the first
time in the history of PDP, there were 12 solid contestants, each who could
easily have become a formidable presidential material.
Indeed, the choice was a very tough one for the party. The party
was very conscious that the country was looking up to it to produce a
formidable candidate that will square up with President Muhammadu Buhari who
has received endorsement from 15 million All Progressives Congress (APC)
members to stand as the party’s candidate for the 2019 elections. Talking about
15 million APC members, reminds me of the video I recently watched of one Mr
Biggi who was trying to commit suicide by hanging on a plantain stem.
A lady, perhaps, his wife was trying to
dissuade him from taking his life. “Mr Biggi, what is your problem?” “How can
APC say that 15 million people voted for the President at the congress, when
they were only 7000 delegates at the convention? It then means that in the
election, they will announce that 100 million people voted for Buhari.” Is that
all Mr Biggi? Please do not kill yourself,” the woman pleaded. I responded to
the video by saying that Biggi was not serious. If he wanted to commit suicide
indeed, why would he choose to hang from a plantain stem? Nevertheless Biggi
made his point. Not a few Nigerians marvelled at APC’s 14.8 million voters for
the President at the primaries. Another commentator in another medium concluded
that APC was only preparing our minds. I did not quite understand what he meant
by “preparing our minds.” *Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar |
The PDP primary as I said was keenly contested. The venue for
the convention which had earlier been decided upon was reopened leading to some
controversy. Luckily, this potentially divisive issue was settled. Then the
gambles as to who would win the day intensified. On Saturday/ Sunday -6/7
October, PDP organised what has been dubbed the most free and transparent
primaries, though some argue that given the allegations of delegate buying, how
free could the election be? Others, however, counter that delegate buying or
vote buying which has become part of Nigeria’s political culture is a common
denominator and therefore cancels itself out as a significant determining
factor.
When the results were released, most Nigerians
were pleasantly surprised that all the twelve distinguished contestants
accepted the verdict with out as much as a grumble. This is unusual, as in Nigeria ’s
political culture, no one loses elections fair and square. Again this seems to
be an evolving trend with PDP. Since President Jonathan set the record of
accepting defeat without a whimper, it seems that a new culture may well be on
its way. Chairman Uche Secundus and leaders of PDP deserve some commendation
for this great feat. May be PDP has learnt some lessons! This contrasts sharply
with the situation with APC primaries. Virtually all the primaries except for
the 15 million-man affirmation of the President were enthralled in major
controversies, though the 15 million votes announced has itself generated
debates across the isle.
Indeed the way some of the primaries were
conducted made many Nigerians very sad. In Lagos gubernatorial primaries, the chairman
of the electoral committee sent to conduct the elections announced that no
primaries were held. But three hours later following consultations with Abuja , the man
shamelessly announced the results of an election which he had said never held.
In Imo, the ‘militant’ national chairman announced to the world that the
results submitted by two factions of the electoral committee were fake giving
credence to my earlier question: is Nigeria a fake nation or a nation
of fakes? The chairman of the electoral committee announced the result of his
own elections in Abuja
instead of in Owerri where the election was supposed to have been held citing
security concerns. The secretary of the committee and other members sat in
Owerri and wrote up a new set of figures that favoured Governor Rochas
Okorocha’s son-In-law.
After the governor went to see the president, a rerun was ordered, which was boycotted by one faction, giving Okorocha’s faction leeway to return Uche Nwosu. The story is similar in many states and in Zamfara, things were so bad that even this INEC had to rule APC out of order, virtually foreclosing the possibility of APC fielding candidates in the 2019 elections. I believe this is only a bluff by INEC as it is certain that INEC would be over-ruled byAbuja . Indeed APC made a
real mess of its primaries that the President’s wife Aisha could not keep her
cool. In her characteristic forthrightness she blasted APC for rigging its own
primaries.
After the governor went to see the president, a rerun was ordered, which was boycotted by one faction, giving Okorocha’s faction leeway to return Uche Nwosu. The story is similar in many states and in Zamfara, things were so bad that even this INEC had to rule APC out of order, virtually foreclosing the possibility of APC fielding candidates in the 2019 elections. I believe this is only a bluff by INEC as it is certain that INEC would be over-ruled by
This is really painful as it has already began
to taint the credibility of the 2019 elections. With Ekiti and Osun elections
still fresh in people’s minds, the sanctity of the 2019 election results is
already being put to test. Every well meaning Nigerian must be praying that
this APC government will conduct national elections that will not produce fake
results. They must aim at equalling if not doing better than PDP’s performance
in 2015.
Atiku’s victory has brightened up the political space. Nigerians now have a lot to talk about in beer parlours, social media, radio/TV houses, markets, motor parks and in offices. There is excitement and animation in the polity. For and against. But within one week of his emergence as PDP presidential candidate, Atiku has hit two bull eyes. First, he got President Olusegun Obasanjo to support his candidacy. This is a most significant accomplishment, almost like a miracle. Since 2003 when Atiku as Vice President threatened to displace Obasanjo prematurely but later reneged after Obasanjo “prostrated” for him, he has been as daggers drawn with Atiku. He has painted Atiku with the brush of corruption and has done everything to demonize him.Despite several apologies by Atiku and several visits to Obasanjo’s hill top mansion, Baba Iyabo had refused to forgive.
Atiku’s victory has brightened up the political space. Nigerians now have a lot to talk about in beer parlours, social media, radio/TV houses, markets, motor parks and in offices. There is excitement and animation in the polity. For and against. But within one week of his emergence as PDP presidential candidate, Atiku has hit two bull eyes. First, he got President Olusegun Obasanjo to support his candidacy. This is a most significant accomplishment, almost like a miracle. Since 2003 when Atiku as Vice President threatened to displace Obasanjo prematurely but later reneged after Obasanjo “prostrated” for him, he has been as daggers drawn with Atiku. He has painted Atiku with the brush of corruption and has done everything to demonize him.Despite several apologies by Atiku and several visits to Obasanjo’s hill top mansion, Baba Iyabo had refused to forgive.
As recently as one month ago, Obj reiterated
his opposition to Atiku ever becoming the President in his life time, even
saying that” God would not forgive him if he forgave Atiku.” But within
one week of winning the primary, Atiku has mobilised all the resources – human,
material and spiritual to make OBJ swallow his words. That is certainly not a
mean achievement and perhaps exemplifies Atiku’s character as a man who will
not give up on any problem and who knows how to mobilise forces to move
mountains.
The second bull was the choice of Mr. Peter Obi, former governor of Anambra State as his running mate. Truly the
South East has great men and women who could pair with Atiku but to be true,
none beats Peter Obi. Peter is a tested hand who gave a sterling account of
himself as the governor of Anambra
State . His landmark
achievements in Anambra remain visible and audible. He was an effective
governor. He was prudent and remained ‘human’ in and outside office. Peter
belongs to that rare class of state governors who governed well, brought
development, security and peace to their states exhibiting the highest levels
of prudence and efficient resource management. Today, Peter is very well respected
and regarded not only in the South East but in most regions of Nigeria as a
politician with integrity.
Yes his opposition to the second term of the
incumbent governor of Anambra may have rubbed off some of his cult following in
Anambra State , yet he remains perhaps the most
popular and well respected past governor in the South East. Therefore, the
choice of Obi has been acclaimed all over the nation and there is a consensus
that given his private sector background in banking, business and investment he
will prove a very capable Vice President and will ably help the president
manage the economy if they win the election.
Therefore, it is looking to me like the Nigerian political equation which in one of my recent dispatches was described as difficult to balance, now looks solvable as the number of variables has declined, while constants have increased. Yes, we have so many other presidential candidates from the newer and smaller parties, great people like Dr. Kingsley Moghalu, Dr. Oby Ezekwesili, Sowore, Fela Durotoye, Donald Duke, Dr. Mimiko, Prof. Jerry Ghana etc, the 2019 presidential elections may just be a duel between Buhari and Atiku. The third force of course, could play the role it played in Osun. Nevertheless, it is too early to predict the outcome but it will be a real fight. As long as INEC avoids the predicted and predictable shortcomings and bobby traps, the first real political contest between a sitting President of Northern Nigeria extraction and another candidate from the North promises to be a real derby and may turn out to be quite decisive for the future ofNigeria .
*Mazi Ohuabunwa, OFR., could be reached with sam@starteamconsult.com
Therefore, it is looking to me like the Nigerian political equation which in one of my recent dispatches was described as difficult to balance, now looks solvable as the number of variables has declined, while constants have increased. Yes, we have so many other presidential candidates from the newer and smaller parties, great people like Dr. Kingsley Moghalu, Dr. Oby Ezekwesili, Sowore, Fela Durotoye, Donald Duke, Dr. Mimiko, Prof. Jerry Ghana etc, the 2019 presidential elections may just be a duel between Buhari and Atiku. The third force of course, could play the role it played in Osun. Nevertheless, it is too early to predict the outcome but it will be a real fight. As long as INEC avoids the predicted and predictable shortcomings and bobby traps, the first real political contest between a sitting President of Northern Nigeria extraction and another candidate from the North promises to be a real derby and may turn out to be quite decisive for the future of
*Mazi Ohuabunwa, OFR., could be reached with sam@starteamconsult.com
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