By Paul Odili
To correct a wrong,
it is sometimes necessary to exceed proper limits’. This
doctrine is attributed to Mao Zedong by his personal secretary, Lin Ke.
Mao, founder of the
modern communist state of China was a man of power, who had no
hesitation using whatever means he judged necessary to protect his power and
the state he founded. In this context, Mao was justifying the use of terror.
I do not
ordinarily believe in the use of terror by legitimate forces of the state, yet
there are times you just ponder what are the options before state actors under
certain circumstances. If Mao were to be the commander of Nigerian state, there
is no question as to what he would do in view of the dystopia in the Niger
Delta area.
The senseless
attacks and economic sabotage going on in the Niger Delta by a shadowy militant
group( Niger Delta Avengers) claiming to be fighting for the interest of Niger
Delta, you wonder if there is no great wisdom in Mao’s doctrine. We don’t have
a Mao here of course, we have PMB and PMB is no Mao clearly. And Nigerian state
is neither a communist state nor resembling a Chinese society. We are Africans
with our cultural mores and social and economic structure. But we are a society
that must survive and we are under attack by a merciless force. Nigeria is in a state of war.
In any state of war,
economic assets are legitimate targets. So what do we do? Let’s get inside
PMB’s head. A retired old school Army General, strict and unbending, prides
himself in promoting order and discipline above everything else, is now faced
with one of the greatest existential threat yet to his administration. At a
period of great economic stress, in which the main source of the government’s
economic power is being systematically sabotaged and somehow he is powerless to
do anything. This must be his worst nightmare! Naturally, his first instinct
would be to use military force and exterminate these saboteurs.
He said as much when
he declared that the Niger Delta militants would be dealt with like Boko haram.
So far PMB is wrong. The terrain and associated circumstances are different.
NDA have called his bluff. Almost on a daily basis one asset or the other has
been blown up. Minister Ibe Kachikwu is lamenting the effect of this on oil
production down to 1.4 million; the lowest production in two decades. With the
hapless situation he is facing PMB must be torn between armistice with the
militants or military operation to conquer. With public panic rising and economic
downturn worsening with the continuation of this act of war, what should be
done and done to end this conflagration once and for all?
As PMB may have
realised there is no easy answer. In the short term, war won’t end this and
negotiation can only buy you time at some cost with concession. Both have their
implications. Military effort will lead to greater destruction and sabotage.
Negotiation and amnesty can only provide temporary truce. In any case, what
kind of amnesty? Certainly PMB terms will not tolerate the kind of amnesty
package that made the militants extremely rich such that some became
politicians and power brokers and lived a life of opulence amidst poverty and
neglect of their people they claimed they were fighting for.
One of the biggest
lie since the Devil deceived Eve in the Garden of Eden was that the militant
attacks was to bring attention to the neglect to the region. It is not. It is
war for profiteering through bunkering or outsize government contracts to
protect pipelines. We know the life style of the ex-militants during amnesty.
Lavish parties, fancy cars, expensive cognac at social events, beautiful women
bedecked with expensive jewelries, the militants were known to spray dollars at
social events—child naming, wedding anything that catches their fancy, no sense
of moderation. During President Jonathan administration, his amnesty programme
was a spigot that spilled cash endlessly.
It was bazaar, easy
money on a scale never seen and which PMB has cut off. This is bound to get
reaction. And the reaction is what the country is facing. The other great
disappointment is the failure of Nigerian state not to have found a way to map
and establish greater presence in the Niger Delta region in a manner that
reduces this scale of destruction. Are we saying that a foreign hostile force
can slip into the Delta region, occupy it and control it and we are caught in a
rearguard fight? Surely technology exists (drone for instance..etc) that track
movement real time within the region.
These militants
can’t just move randomly unchallenged if proper deployment of men, materials
and technology were in place. Or is there a conspiracy somewhere? Or is the
usual lack of rigour and sloppiness in our administration. Overall, the cards
are stacked against PMB in the short term. It is either he climbs down and
negotiate on a generous terms like other presidents before him he might succeed
in deescalating the crisis or he pursues this war of attrition to its
conclusive end.
He is no Mao and
probably lacks the will to implement Mao’s doctrine. Mao was extremely cunning,
extremely charismatic, extremely capable in the act of statecraft and extremely
ruthless. He created a state that made it possible for him to thrive. To
succeed in the present circumstances, PMB might well use some of Mao’s
qualities. Across board Nigeria is on tenterhooks.
* Mr. Paul Odili, a public affairs commentator,
wrote from Asaba, Delta State .
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