By Austin Okere
The mistake we keep making as a nation is failing to
anticipate and plan for our oil windfalls. There have been many boom opportunities
since Nigeria joined the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
in 1971; oil prices increased by 400% in six short months after the Yom Kippur
War following the Arab Oil Embargo. Crude prices doubled from $14 in 1978 to
$35 per barrel in 1981 following the Iran/Iraq war.
The price of crude oil
spiked in 1990 with the uncertainties associated with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the
ensuring Gulf War – the so called ‘Gulf War windfall’ under then Head of
State, Ibrahim Babangida. Data from the U.S. Energy Information
Administration show that the latest windfall happened between February 2011 and
August 2014, under the Goodluck Jonathan presidency, when oil prices were much
in excess of$100 per barrel. Another golden opportunity was squandered.
During this same period, Saudi Arabia has amassed a whopping $593b
in foreign exchange reserves and has recently announced that it is creating a
$2 trillion mega-sovereign wealth fund, funded by sales of current petroleum
industry assets, to prepare itself for an age when oil no longer dominates the
global economy. Coming closer home, Algeria , the second biggest African
oil producer, with 1.9mbpd has accumulated foreign reserves of $156b and a
sovereign wealth fund of $50b. Nigeria, by far the biggest producer in Africa
with 2.5mbpd has only managed foreign reserves of$28b and a sovereign wealth
fund of a paltry $2.9b – about 5% that of Algeria. The major difference being
that while the Algerians saved for a rainy day during the boom years, Nigeria was
busy squandering her wealth, with nothing to show by way of infrastructure or
any solid investments.
Yet Nigeria
was able to balance her budget, pay off her debts and save over $62b in foreign
reserves during the Obasanjo presidency from 1999 to 2007, even though the
price of crude was mostly under $40 per barrel, except for the two years
between 2005 and 2007 when it hovered between $50 and $75 dollars per barrel.
It is bothersome that with the same level of oil price, Nigeria today
is struggling to balance her budget and has resorted to aggressive borrowing
to finance the deficit, inadvertently driving us back to where we were before
escaping from the huge burden of sovereign debt and the attendant debilitating
impact of debt servicing.
I believe that Nigeria
can save as much as $36.5b in the coming year if oil prices recover towards
the end of 2016 and through 2017 to the projected $80 per barrel. This assumes
we have all agreed that the current crisis is much too painful and too
precious to waste. We must seize this golden opportunity with both hands and
make the structural changes that will lead us to true prosperity as a nation.
Almost every third Nigerian businessman you come across claims to be into Oil
and Gas. Yet oil contributed only 6.4% to GDP growth in 2015.
An often overlooked area for rapid economic growth is telecoms,
entertainment and media. At a recent event in Lagos, Dr. Doyin Salami,
lecturer at Lagos Business School, remarked that ‘The telecommunication
sector grew Nigeria’s GDP by 8.7% in 2015, generating spill overs, with
uptakes in financial transactions technology and payment systems, e-commerce
facilitation and proliferation of transport services, while making the
offering of the burgeoning entertainment industry ubiquitous’. Quite simply, if
each of the 34 million medium and small enterprises in Nigeria could
be supported with technology to improve their businesses through online
presence and seamless book-eeping to the point of employing one more staff,
they would create an additional 34 million jobs, much more than the government
can ever provide. I totally agree with Dr. Salami that Nigeria ’s
economy has systematically and strategically diversified along the lines of
technology and other services sector without Nigerians noticing. The services
sector today contributes as much as 52% of Nigeria ’s GDP.
Agriculture is also another sector that could do with special
attention. If we strive to produce what we eat, we will not only be saving a
whopping $6b from our import bill, but also provide the opportunity for
inclusive growth, with the spill over effects down the value chain, from
logistics and transportation to light manufacturing. But we need to make the
right investments in infrastructure such as roads and rail transport linking
farms with their food processors and markets.
The elephant in the room question is; who says oil prices will
reach $80 per barrel?
*Austin Okere is an economic affairs analyst
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