By Magnus Onyibe
It is human nature to choose the least option of resistance when faced with
tough decisions.
That perhaps explains why government’s reaction to the current foreign exchange, fx, squeeze, arising from recent drastic drop in international oil price – from whichNigeria
earns approximately 90% of fx – is to ban allocation of fx for purchase of some
items considered not essential.
That perhaps explains why government’s reaction to the current foreign exchange, fx, squeeze, arising from recent drastic drop in international oil price – from which
*President Buhari |
The barring of 41 items such as tooth picks and candle wax from
official allocation of fx is justified by the fact that such items could be
sourced locally, especially since they are simple items requiring no extra
ordinary skills or technology to produce.
However, owing to government’s policy of not being self-reliant,
instead preferring to source basic items from abroad, looking inwards was
considered tedious when it could be more easily imported.
That laidback attitude of Nigerians towards local production is the reason the policy of import substitution introduced inNigeria in the days of oil boom was
not pursued with the vigor it deserves. The shoddy implementation of the policy
institutionalized Nigeria ’s
penchant for foreign made goods and services, signaling the dearth of locally
produced goods and services for local consumption.
That laidback attitude of Nigerians towards local production is the reason the policy of import substitution introduced in
Nothing demonstrates Nigeria ’s
penchant for foreign made goods better than the (in)famous container
armada-ships laden with imported containers of assortment of goods into Nigeria ,
resulting in congestions in the sea ports in early 1980s under ex president ,
Shehu Shagari’s watch (1979-83).
In a recent article titled “In This Same Country”, Reuben Abati,
the former chairman of Guardian newspaper’s editorial board, irrepressible
columnist and ex-presidential spokesman, captured the mood of Nigeria and
Nigerians during the so called good old days, which some people, out of
nostalgia, fondly refer to as the golden age.
Abati’s article which was an eulogy of Nigeria ’s heydays as a towering economic
colossus, also contained reminisces of Nigeria
of yore in comparison to now, and laments that the new generation – youths born
less than 35 years ago – would never believe that Nigeria was ever so glorious.
Hear Abati “The angst of this young generation is made worse
when they are told that Nigeria
was not always like this. In their late 20s to thirties, these children have
only known Nigeria where fuel scarcity is a fact of daily life, and part of the
mechanism of survival is to know how to draw fuel with your mouth, or negotiate
black market purchase of fuel, while lugging jerry cans, either at the fuel
station or a road side corner where you cannot be sure of the quality of
fuel.These children have only known a country where the roads are bad, services
are sub-standard, people are mean, criminality is rife, and electricity is
available once in a blue moon”.
In his characteristic poetic manner, Abati contrasted Nigeria of
today with what she used to be in gone-by days by recalling that “In this same
country, the naira used to be at par with the pound and was for many years
stronger than the dollar. So strong was the naira that many Nigerians,
including the lower middle class could afford to travel to London on Friday
evening, attend a party in London on Saturday, attend a church service on
Sunday, check out one or two mistresses in paid-for flats in different parts of
London, and return early enough on Monday morning to be able to go to work. All
that was no big deal. Everyone in London
knew the Nigerians.They were the biggest spenders and they threw the best
parties.”
Therein lies the problem of Nigeria because as opposed to being
her glorious moment, the picture of the ‘swinging 1970-80s’ which Abati painted
in his illuminating piece, in my view is responsible for Nigeria’s
socioeconomic challenges and the genesis of the paralysis that we are now
suffering.
The assertion above is underscored by the fact that, it is the
ostentatious attitude and reputation of the average Nigerian, infamous for
bashfulness and wastefulness, that is the real cause of the economic malaise
that has left Nigeria
in tatters. So, rather than the picture of lascivious Nigerians gorging
themselves with inanities of the west in the 1970s and 1980s making Nigeria
glorious, it indeed reflects the inglorious era of Nigeria which our youths
should be shielded from, so that the atrocious misbehavior of those days do not
rub off on them.
Had the generation of leaders that we had at that time prudently
invested our new found oil wealth on productive ventures like education,
healthcare and transport, infrastructures, rather than wasting it on their
primitive acquisitive inclinations, as reflected in their luxurious lifestyle
of compulsive consumption, the young generation that Abati referred to as not
currently being proud of their green passports because Nigeria has become a
reference point for squander and squalor, would probably be as proud to be
Nigerians as Americans or the Chinese.
One thing is for sure, after reading Abati’s article, the youths
would now know who to hold responsible for Nigeria ’s socioeconomic stagnation
after over 55 years of independence and 50 years of discovery of crude oil.
Contrary to Abati’s expectation, our youths would discover that when fortune
smiled on Nigeria with oil wealth, following the discovery of the commodity in
Oloibiri, Bayelsa state in 1956, resulting in the boom of the late 1970s,
Nigeria derailed by going on a binge in London, Paris and New York, like a drunken
sailor instead of investing wisely in productive ventures like infrastructure
and sustainable institutions like the smart Jew.
The scandalous level of profligacy and revelry of our leaders
was such that no government intent on making progress would have engaged in
such debauchery and hope to leap from third to first world as Singapore did in
about three decades. This was captured and documented in Lee Kuan Yew’s seminal
book titled ” From Third World To First. The Singaporean Story:1965-2000″.
So my take away from Abati’s brilliant narrative on Nigeria ’s good fortune and the squandering of
the wealth is that Nigeria
failed to make hay while the sun was shining. Instead,our leaders at that time
had a grandiose impression of our nation. The manifestation of the exaggerated
impression is that the naira was made to exchange higher than the USA dollar and
parallel to the British pound which was untrue as the value claimed was
obviously not a correct reflection of reality.
What in the world was Nigeria producing apart from Bonny light
crude oil that could have warranted the strength of the naira and her economy
being stronger than that of the dollar and U.S economy which is home to Silicon
Valley, Hollywood, Boeing airplanes and over one hundred other products and
services in high demand across the world? How could Nigeria
that was producing just Bonny light crude oil of similar quality to the UK
Brent, have an economy that was at par with UK ’s that produces Rolls Royce,
Land Rover etc that are highly sought after globally?
The truth is that if the naira were correctly valued, at perhaps
N20-£1, (for the sake of this argument) the average Nigerian would not even
afford to buy an airline ticket, how much less, jet off just like that to
overseas locations to engage in conspicuous consumption of everything he could
not possibly have the capacity and infrastructure to produce back home in
Nigeria as Abati chronicled.
The point being made here is that an over valued currency
motivates the citizens from that country to engage in compulsive procurement of
products and services from a country whose currency is of less value. That is
the underpinning principle for the devaluation policy of most export-oriented
countries all over the world who deliberately reduce the exchange rate of their
currencies to attract the import of their products and services by other
countries.
Two critical facts that Abati omitted in his fascinating account
is that owing to Nigeria’s naira being over valued, Adisa Akinloye, the
chairman of the then ruling political party, NPN had a champagne branded in his
name ‘Akinloye Champagne’ reflecting his level of affluence and opulence. If
naira was correctly valued, he might not have afforded more than a few cartons
of regular ones, how much less make an obscene splash of champagne branded in
his name.
It was a period when a highly influential and so called super permanent secretary, in the federal civil service lost a fortune, in a suit case to a call girl, in aLondon
hotel.
It was a period when a highly influential and so called super permanent secretary, in the federal civil service lost a fortune, in a suit case to a call girl, in a
Obviously, Nigeria
was awash with cash so the largesse was also extended to the youths. While the
annual school fees of a university student in the UK
was £350 which was equivalent to Nigeria ’s
pounds, an average student in secondary school in Nigeria was receiving a handsome
N500 bursary allowance annually. This was £150 more than the school fees of
university students in England
which is probably why an average Nigerian student could have such significant
amount in his breast pocket to spend as he or she wished in London or any other overseas location.
As if validating Abati’s piece depicting the gluttony of
Nigerian leaders, in a recent article by the influential newspaper, Financial
Times, FT, of London titled “Nigeria’s Government: Living The High Life”, it
was alleged that between 2012 and 2014, Nigerian government spent a princely
sum of N248bn or $1.25bn on travels. Confirming that the squandering of wealth
continues till date in Nigeria ,
the FT further alleged that $6.5bn was spent by wealthy Nigerians on private
jets between 2007 and 2012.
That is about $2bn more than the $4.5bn that federal government
is planning to borrow from foreign sources to fund the 2016 budget.
FT further reports that the presidential fleet of 11 airplanes, acquired by the previous administrations, cost the presidency about N5.8bn to maintain in the first six months of this administration and some states owned and operated private jets that cost as much as $50m to acquire, and $1.8 is estimated as cost of maintenance annually.
The globally influential newspaper avers that Nigerian state governors still fly private jets even as most of them are owing workers salaries in some cases for up to six months in arrears.
FT further reports that the presidential fleet of 11 airplanes, acquired by the previous administrations, cost the presidency about N5.8bn to maintain in the first six months of this administration and some states owned and operated private jets that cost as much as $50m to acquire, and $1.8 is estimated as cost of maintenance annually.
The globally influential newspaper avers that Nigerian state governors still fly private jets even as most of them are owing workers salaries in some cases for up to six months in arrears.
Evidently, Nigeria ’s
problem is a question of failed leadership of an acquiesced and unpatriotic
citizens when compared to progressive policies that a legendary leader like Lee
Kuan Yew of Singapore
introduced to transform the very focused and driven members of the Singaporean
society when leadership was thrust on him.
To put things in better perspectives, let’s compare leadership,
policies, implementation and results in three specific countries in distinctive
regions of the world – Dubai , UAE, China and the Republic
of Georgia to the situation in Nigeria . This
would give illumination to how visionary leadership, correct policies and
driven society, plus diligent implementation could make a difference to an
economy, a society and a country.
Beginning with Dubai , UAE ($399b
GDP): Sheik Rashid, who reigned between 1958 and 1990 is the architect of the
phenomenal development, called Dubai .
He dared to plan on reinventing a quaint pearl prospecting precinct into a
trade and tourist haven. About three decades after what initially seemed like a
brain wave, the dream has been realized as Dubai
has now effectively become the new Paris in the
Middle East-replacing Beirut
which lost her glitters as a result of terrorism-related challenges.
Subsequently, most of the traditional tourists who used to flock to Egypt are also diverting to Dubai
for the same reason they are shifting from Beirut .
How did a tiny Dubai ,
with a population of 9.3 million people (entire UAE) , attain such lofty
heights? Clearly it is through visionary leadership that facilitated the
provision of enabling environment via progressive tourism and trade policies;
robust infrastructure and watertight security that has kept terrorists out of
the emirate which although is in the terrorism ravaged Middle East, has
remained ensconced.
With Sheikh Maktoum taking over from his late father Rashid in
1990 and staying the course till he too passed away in 2006, the tallest
building in the world, Burj Khalifa, housing the famous Armani Hotel is in Dubai and Sheik Mohamed
Maktoum, who succeeded Sheik Maktoum has like his progenitors continued to
break new grounds.
Dubai-owned airline, Emirates boasts of one of the largest fleets of aircrafts in the world and flies into countless destinations world wide; entry visa into Dubai is one of the most hassle free in the world, yet there is no unwanted immigrants issues there; properties can be acquired and disposed in less than 100 hours with all paper work completed in a jiffy and Dubai air and sea ports are some of the largest in the world.Dubai
also preeminently ranks as the location with the biggest malls in the world,
thanks to the reigning king, fondly referred to as Sheik ‘Mo, who took the
reigns in 2006 and kept the faith.
Dubai-owned airline, Emirates boasts of one of the largest fleets of aircrafts in the world and flies into countless destinations world wide; entry visa into Dubai is one of the most hassle free in the world, yet there is no unwanted immigrants issues there; properties can be acquired and disposed in less than 100 hours with all paper work completed in a jiffy and Dubai air and sea ports are some of the largest in the world.
The net result and effect of all the above deliberate
developmental strides is that Dubai
has become a haven to traders and oasis to tourists from all over the world.
As simplistic as the above listed activities that enabledDubai ’s
lofty accomplishments appear, there are lots of lessons for Nigerian leaders to
learn from Sheik Rashid who did not have western education but had the vision
of leveraging the wealth from oil-rich Abu Dhabi ,
the capital of the Emirates, to develope of Dubai into a global trading and tourism hub.
As simplistic as the above listed activities that enabled
With the development and convergence of gigantic sea and
airports, as well as airlines, hotels and real estate, Dubai
is now a combination of Paris , London
and Miami in one location making her the jewel
of the Middle East .
Compare that to Nigeria that squandered her oil wealth in consumption oriented jamborees like FESTAC in 1977 and the puffing up the naira to be at par with the British pound and thus encouraging spending sprees in Europe and USA, and you can easily discern how unwise our leaders have been and the reason we are still mired in a nasty poverty trap.
Compare that to Nigeria that squandered her oil wealth in consumption oriented jamborees like FESTAC in 1977 and the puffing up the naira to be at par with the British pound and thus encouraging spending sprees in Europe and USA, and you can easily discern how unwise our leaders have been and the reason we are still mired in a nasty poverty trap.
On China , it
took the far-sightedness of Deng Xiaoping , the forward-thinking Chinese leader
to pull the Far East country out of the shackles of chairman Mao Zedong’s
cultural revolution policy of building iron curtains around China and which
rendered her economy and people insular and archaic.
As a far-sighted leader,Deng Xiaoping who ruled from 1979 to
1997, abandoned Mao’s communist doctrines and incorporated elements of free
enterprise system into the economy. He was famously quoted as saying ” poverty
is not socialism. To be rich is glorious”. This is why he stock to socialism
but implemented changes in agriculture and industry.
Under the old cultural revolution, China
had great potentials which was largely unharnessed until Xiaoping opened up China to
foreign investment and global markets. While implementing the ‘great leap’ policy,
as part of the Cultural Revolution, Chinese people had been mandated to convert
every available metal into products. The policy failed and an estimated three
hundred million 300m were believed to have died as a result of famine induced
hunger and starvation until, the country opened up to international trade –
allowing the inflow of badly needed capital to grow the economy.
After allowing capitalist free market enterprise principles
driven economies of Hong Kong leased to Britain
and Taiwan , under the
management of USA
to sift into her economy, she was ready for the world. To address energy
shortage that constrained the Great Leap, China embarked on the construction of
the three gorges dam, 600
feet deep, one and half miles in width and covering
about 400 miles ,
to the displeasure of Western environmentalists who reckon that the dam would
displace about one million, two hundred thousand,1,200,000 families in a region
that is home to estimated 30 million people.
Needless to point out that it is to the credit of the astute
leadership skills and rugged determination of Deng Xiaoping that the three
gorges dam which the West was against was completed and thus enabled her
generate enough electricity- 9th of chinese needs and up to what 18 nuclear
plants would generate. That bold and monumental initiative would make China the
world’s factory for the manufacture of any and everything today. Assuming,
Xiaoping buckled under the pressure of the West not to build the three gorges
dam, would China
have grown so exponentially?
Compare the Chinese situation decades ago, when Western powers
tried dissuading her from building the three gorges dam;how China spurned the advise viz-a-viz the current
pressure on Nigeria
to devalue the naira,then you can discern how gutsy the Chinese leader Xiaoping
was.
With a robust local industrial capacity,owing to steady
electricity power,vast organizational structure by the leadership and enormous
potential for agricultural development, modest but modern road infrastructure
development, plus badly needed foreign investment inflow, Xiaoping made up with
a former foe but industrious Japan; former communist ally, Russia and Western
super powers;the USA and UK.
Thereafter, China
wisely joined the world trade organization, WTO in 2001 and her economy became
the fastest growing in the world and the rest is now history. Fifteen years
after WTO, with a ten trillion dollar ($10t) size economy, China is the
second largest economy by GDP value in the world.
It is being projected that USA ’s
seventeen trillion ($17trn) GDP may be be overtaken by China in 2050.
That is not impossible with Alibaba – massive online trading platform, competing with USA Amazon, Huawei-giant technology company challenging Microsoft and Xiaomi-smart phone giving Apple and her iPhone and other hitek products, a run for their money. So the projection of China trumping USA economy in about thirty, 30 years may not be a pie dream, as some ‘Doubting Thomas’ are wont to believe.
That is not impossible with Alibaba – massive online trading platform, competing with USA Amazon, Huawei-giant technology company challenging Microsoft and Xiaomi-smart phone giving Apple and her iPhone and other hitek products, a run for their money. So the projection of China trumping USA economy in about thirty, 30 years may not be a pie dream, as some ‘Doubting Thomas’ are wont to believe.
Let’s now look at the third model- Republic
of Georgia($16.2bn GDP).
This is the poster child of development often vaunted by the West as represented by the IMF and World bank.Georgia
is a small country with a population of less than five million, 5m people that
was hived off defunct United Soviet Socialist
Republic , USSR . The country came under Soviet
rule in 1921 but seceded in 1991 under the leadership of Eduard Shevardnadze.
It’s noteworthy that unlike the development paths taken by Dubai ,
UAE and China , the IMF and
World Bank are driving the development in Georgia and this is remarkable as
we shall see later.
This is the poster child of development often vaunted by the West as represented by the IMF and World bank.
When market driven economic policies were embraced following
structural reforms, pushed by the aforementioned multilateral agencies, the
authorities deliberately posted young men and women to senior government posts
to drive the reforms as was the case in Singapore, led by Lee Kuan Yew.
Under the IMF and World Bank influence, budgetary and the
reforms were introduced, just as support for small and medium scale enterprises
was boosted and attempts were made to curtail the influence of the parallel
market which was about 50% of the Georgian economy. Like Nigeria , low
tax collection and delay in payment of salaries and pensions are identified
drags to the economy but the IMF/World bank reforms resulted in reduction in
budget deficit etc.
Of course, the improvements did not come without the price of
the devaluation of the Lari-Georgian currency in 1998. This happened despite
the fact that Georgia
is a country that the Western powers are projecting as a success story in terms
of transition to capitalist and market forces driven economy as opposed to the
communist/socialist centrally controlled economy from which she emerged in
1991.
The consequence of devaluation of the Lari was liquidity
challenge in the banking sector as is currently being witnessed in Nigeria and resort to borrowing from abroad was Georgia ’s fall
back position. It was easy for European and American banks to lend money to
Georgian banks because it was being propped up as a beacon of hope and model to
other east European countries under the yoke of Russian socialism. Can Nigeria benefit
from such Western powers largesse if she devalues and suffered liquidity
crunch? Although, former Nigerian president, Olusegun Obasanjo was able to
secure a debt write off at the nascent stage of our democracy, things have
changed since that time and my sense is that such commitment would be difficult
to extract from Western creditors now, especially in the light of the falling
price of oil/gas which Nigeria relies on for fx income.
Whereas foreign direct investment, FDI reached $224m in 1998, no
‘major’ oil/gas firm has signed any agreement with Georgia till date and despite the
devaluation of the Lari, export has remained depressed and that is being
attributed to the dismal performance of the global economy. Clearly, the
pattern of development of the Republic of Georgia is in stark contrast with
that of Dubai and China especially because that country’s development has been
led by the Bretton Wood institutions and that’s why neither the current
president nor the prime minister are mentioned in the development narrative as
unlike Dubai and Chinese leaders, they had no leadership initiative of their
own, except to execute IMF/World Bank directives.
If Nigeria should buckle under the pressure of the same
multi-lateral agencies that have been driving the Georgian growth, it could go
the way of Georgia and given the not so excellent accomplishments recorded over
there, (forget the hype) and considering that Georgia is only about the size of
Delta state, which is about 4.9m in population,it would not be an optimal
decision for Nigeria to model her growth and development after the small
Eastern European country of Georgia.
In the light of the foregoing, the preferred model for
development for Nigeria , in
my view, would be a combination of the Dubai ,UAE
and Chinese models that have been proven to be sustainable and resilient. Dubai formulated
futuristic policies and had the tenacity of purpose via her visionary and
purpose driven leaders like, sheik Rashid, Maktum and Mohamed to vigorously
pursue the initiatives until the dream became reality.
By the same token, China resolved to grow her local
muscle to compete by being insular and only unleashed her power after
organizational capacity had become deeply entrenched owing to her erstwhile
communist structures before venturing out to compete internationally.
China being the most
populous country in the world and Nigeria
having the largest number of people in Africa, share common characteristics, so
Nigeria would be better of
emulating China
in my reckoning.
The following are five nuggets of Chinese-type development
wisdom pointing to how Buhari can put Nigeria
back on track:
Firstly,China ’s
dogged determination to solve her electricity power instability challenge as
reflected in her construction of the three gorges dam is a good candidate for
emulation by Nigerian leaders.
President Buhari should take ramping up power supply more seriously. Lumping power up in the same ministry as works and housing, does not create the impression that overcoming power shortages and its attendant consequence on industrialization is a priority by this govt.Separate power from works and housing, appoint another minister to supervise the left over of works and housing and free up the dynamic, high-achieving ,former governor of Lagos state, Babatunde Fashola with the power ministry.
The urgency to over come electricity challenge can’t be overemphasized but suffice it to say that it is the most critical catalyst for industrial development as evidenced by Chinese experience.
Firstly,
President Buhari should take ramping up power supply more seriously. Lumping power up in the same ministry as works and housing, does not create the impression that overcoming power shortages and its attendant consequence on industrialization is a priority by this govt.Separate power from works and housing, appoint another minister to supervise the left over of works and housing and free up the dynamic, high-achieving ,former governor of Lagos state, Babatunde Fashola with the power ministry.
The urgency to over come electricity challenge can’t be overemphasized but suffice it to say that it is the most critical catalyst for industrial development as evidenced by Chinese experience.
Secondly, a combination of Import substitution policy introduced
long ago but shabbily implemented and a new policy of Backward integration in
agriculture should be pursued as a matter of urgency. Already, the likes of
Obasanjo and Transcorp farms, as well as Orleans and Indorama farms are
investing in cultivating and processing of some food items like poultry, rice
and fruit juice in Ogun, Delta and Benue states and environ. Likewise, Aliko
Dangote, the richest man in Africa, has pledged to join the farming revolution
by growing rice and sugar in the northern parts of Nigeria and so also has
billionaire, captain Hosa Okunbo ‘thrown his hat into the ring’ of the new farmers
club in Edo state region.
As a further testimony to the capacity of Nigerians to deliver
when challenged, Erisco Bumpet is already producing tinned tomatoe purée
locally. With more hands being on board to till the soil, food import ticket
that is second only to fuel imports, would be reduced very quickly.
Thirdly, petrol or premium motor spirit, PMS which is believed
to constitute N1.24 trillion of the fx outflow in 2015 should be tackled
head-on. Fortunately, President Muhammadu Buhari is familiar with building
refineries having been the one that built at least two major refineries in the Nigeria during
his tenure as minister of petroleum resources and military head-of-state in the
late 1970s and 80s. Along with impressive efforts being made by GMD of NNPC/Minister
of state for petroleum, lbe Kachikwu, President Buhari should provide
incentives (offer they can’t resist) for oil majors to invest in refineries as
precondition for tax breaks and other privileges that they often seek.
Obviously, oil majors have the clout to make it happen faster
than any other party because of their foot prints and experience garnered in
other clines. To that end, renewal of leases and award of new ones should be
tied to establishment of refineries.That is the wish of Nigerians, over and
above the academic scholarships and book quizzes/contests being organized by
major oil companies as corporate social responsibility, CSR initiatives.
The National Assembly should take note of such realities while
reviewing the Petroleum Industry Bill, PIB which needs no further delay, if our
congressmen truly love Nigeria .
The new licenses granted for the establishment of modular refineries is good
and so also is Aliko Dangote’s petrochemical plant and refinery under
conduction in lekki axis of lagos
state.
Having revolutionized cement production in Nigeria to the extent that Nigeria is now a leader in the production of the commodity in Africa and net exporter of the product, Dangote has demonstrated capacity so he can deliver on local production of oil/gas in Nigeria.
Having revolutionized cement production in Nigeria to the extent that Nigeria is now a leader in the production of the commodity in Africa and net exporter of the product, Dangote has demonstrated capacity so he can deliver on local production of oil/gas in Nigeria.
Fourthly, Egypt($307bn GDP) which has a population of about
eighty million, 80m is the third largest economy in Africa, by GDP value, next
to South Africa which is ($350b GDP), which is number two, 2 and Nigeria
($530b), number one,1.
Practically all the consumables in Egypt
from Nike shoes, jeans pants to pampers baby napkins are locally produced by
transnational corporations who via pragmatic trade policy are compelled to
establish factories in Egypt .
That was only possible because Egypt
enjoys stable electricity supply and fairly good infrastructure conductive for
manufacturing hence my suggestion that a state of emergency should be declared
for stable electricity supplying in Nigeria . Similar conditions apply
in South Africa with a
population of under fifty million people and better electricity and other
relevant infrastructure than Nigeria
hence BMW and other vehicle assembly plants are located in South Africa .
Even General Electric, GE ofUSA
opened its first factory outside of USA ,
in South Africa .
Even General Electric, GE of
The import of introducing policies that encourage multinational
corporations to establish local production of their goods, is massive job
creation which would invariably trigger and energize an otherwise dormant
middle class with the needed purchasing power to sustain the businesses.
Fifthly,on the search for home grown health care to conserve fx which mr president recently acknowledged as consuming about one billion dollars annually, why can’t we set up aHealthcare
City in Abuja
like they have done in Dubai ?
The facility in Dubai
boasts of having catered to over 1.2 million patients since inception.
Fifthly,on the search for home grown health care to conserve fx which mr president recently acknowledged as consuming about one billion dollars annually, why can’t we set up a
Recently, a group of medical practitioners in the diaspora came
together to establish a medical facility of international standard in Lagos . They faced
enormous challenges trying to set it up,but eventually they did it anyway. This
confirms that Nigerian can replicate Dubai
Healthcare City
here, if the right incentives are provided. It would particularly be a
potential health tourism magnet especially from African patients. The National Hospital ,
Abuja which was
a good initiative, has failed because it is owned and operated by government.
To save fx and discourage exodus of Nigerians into learning
institutions abroad, which is yet to receive the attention of the authorities
as Mr President’s comment at the recent economic retreat confirms, there are
reputable educational institutions in Europe and America that can be encouraged
to establish campuses here in partnership with local investors. The initiative
would lead to reversal of the trend whereby Nigerian students are now
sojourning not only in advanced society of Europe and USA , but also in Ghana
and Benin Republic higher institutions.
Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President of Nigeria,successfully
collaborated with American university in setting up one in Yola, Adamawa state
and it is thriving, so it has been proven to be doable.
I could go on and on but obviously, there is not enough space for such in a newspaper article,except it is a seminar paper.
I could go on and on but obviously, there is not enough space for such in a newspaper article,except it is a seminar paper.
In my opinion, international trade is only beneficial as long as
there is local input like establishing local assembly plants for local content
hence my proposal for reenactment or replication of Egyptian model especially
for a country like Nigeria
and continent like Africa where we have no
comparative advantage in any product or service except agriculture.
For instance, the USA
has the capacity to produce her wine in California
but WTO believes France has
comparative advantage hence you hear of French wine all over the world ,but in
agriculture, where Africa has comparative advantage, the West subsidizes
farming thereby blunting Africa’s edge by dumping cheap imports like poultry
etc on Africa . Since we don’t have the
capacity to compete against the industrialized society, we are left with the
short end of the stick.
That’s not the case with Western countries who are on equal pedestal, and squabble all the time by accusing each other of dumping steel in their respective countries and arbitrarily devaluing their currencies to boost export.
That’s not the case with Western countries who are on equal pedestal, and squabble all the time by accusing each other of dumping steel in their respective countries and arbitrarily devaluing their currencies to boost export.
These disagreements sometimes lead to trade wars, but Nigeria or indeed Africa
don’t have the ‘liver’ (to borrow local lingo) to bargain or engage in the
trade wars.
The reality is that when we open up our markets to compete with cheap imports from countries likeChina ,hitherto
thriving industries like the textile mills would die.
That’s whyKaduna
that used to be a hub for textile manufacturing,feeding on cotton farms that
are endemic in neighboring Funtua, Katsina state is a shadow of its self as the
Industry is now effectively dead.
In international trade, if you are weak in policy and negotiations, you will be bullied and everything will be forced down your throat.
So the West will rattle Nigeria, but it’s left to her to demonstrate strength and leadership by resisting the pressure,however Nigeria must have alternative viable plans and counter strategies to starve off the challenge and disappointingly our country seems to have non in existence now.
The reality is that when we open up our markets to compete with cheap imports from countries like
That’s why
In international trade, if you are weak in policy and negotiations, you will be bullied and everything will be forced down your throat.
So the West will rattle Nigeria, but it’s left to her to demonstrate strength and leadership by resisting the pressure,however Nigeria must have alternative viable plans and counter strategies to starve off the challenge and disappointingly our country seems to have non in existence now.
To appreciate what is driving the devalue or not devalue debate,
one needs to have a conversation with a Nigerian who has worked and retired
from UAC, SHELL, Chevron or Mobil for 30-40 years, as a director to realize how
fiercely loyal they can be to the ethos of the company or the company’s country
of origin like UAC and the Queen of England. This stems from the fact that
after working for so long in those companies and benefiting from training by
the firm all their working lives, they don’t have any choice than to be beholden
to such companies and be extremely loyal.
So also is the situation with a Nigerian that has worked in the civil service or any of the arms of the military for similar length of time and enjoyed scholarships and sundry trainings on the job before retiring as a permanent secretary or a military general. Such people are also fiercely loyal toNigeria .
Loyalty to a company in my view is akin to patriotism to a country.
And an individual is loyal or patriotic if or when one feels indebted.
So also is the situation with a Nigerian that has worked in the civil service or any of the arms of the military for similar length of time and enjoyed scholarships and sundry trainings on the job before retiring as a permanent secretary or a military general. Such people are also fiercely loyal to
And an individual is loyal or patriotic if or when one feels indebted.
That is the difference between those calling for devaluation and
those against it. The debate has, from my point of view, been more of emotional
argument than an economic one. This is because, it depends on one’s economic
point of view or school of thought like the Keynesian/monetarists/public choice
theory that one is basing the decision on, there is really no option -devalue
or not- that would not lead to the rescue of the economy but tenacity of
purpose is crucial to success.
Renown economists like Paul Krugman, Joseph Stieglitz , Milton
Friedman, James M Buchanan etc belong to different schools of thought but their
ultimate object is how to create value and progress.
Therefore, it is left to a nation’s economic management team to design or develop a model or pathway to economic revival or growth and one thing for sure is that no channel out of economic challenge is painless.
Therefore, it is left to a nation’s economic management team to design or develop a model or pathway to economic revival or growth and one thing for sure is that no channel out of economic challenge is painless.
Those calling for devaluation are satiated with Western
doctrines like the retirees from UAC, Mobil etc while those resisting
devaluation are dye-in-the-wool patriots like retired civil servants and army
generals as illustrated in my earlier analogy.
President Buhari represents the fiercely patriotic and therefore
against devaluation while the immediate past governor of the CBN now emir of Kano ,Sanusi lamido
Sanusi, who is calling for devaluation,represents those whose DNA are deeply
ingrained with Western ethos.
Nevertheless, what l can affirm is that despite the divergent
points of view on whether to devalue or not devalue,the overarching interest and
motivation on both sides, which is to strengthen Nigerian economy,can not be
denied.
To achieve a profound and far reaching result of putting Nigerian economy on even keel, the APC led federal govt may wish to seek the expertise of economics experts like Joseph Stieglitz and Paul Krugman who are Nobel laureates in economics. These towering personalities in economics currently advise major countries likeJapan ,
Greece etc.
To achieve a profound and far reaching result of putting Nigerian economy on even keel, the APC led federal govt may wish to seek the expertise of economics experts like Joseph Stieglitz and Paul Krugman who are Nobel laureates in economics. These towering personalities in economics currently advise major countries like
If APC could engage Dan Axerold-the USA president Obama campaign
strategist to help her create and execute the strategy that enabled her defeat
the former ruling party, PDP at the March 28th, 2015 presidential polls, there
is no reason president Buhari should not avail Nigeria of the skills of the
renown economists,like Stiglitz and Krugman earlier mentioned to help us pull
Nigerian economy out of the present economic doldrums that she is now grappling
with.
Mr President has made solving the monumental problem of
corruption in Nigeria his
priority which is good, but while fighting corruption, searching for the best
ways and means of moving Nigeria
forward faster, such as the ones suggested above, must go on paripasu.
* Magnus Onyibe, a
development strategist and futurologist who is a former commissioner in Delta
state govt and alumnus of Fletcher school of Law and Diplomacy, sent this piece
from Accra , Ghana .
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