By Idowu Oyebanjo
Recently, there has been an increase in the agitation for the deployment of alternative sources of energy for the generation of electricity in
*President Buhari
There is a general tendency to follow the crowd
by copying the trend in developed economies and most times this yields positive
results. However, this will only be the case after a careful consideration of
local circumstances. The Western world is persuading Nigeria to embrace their
much needed market for Renewable Energy System not because they want to help,
but because of the trade and economic benefits it will bring them in terms of the
gains from the delivery of goods and services that this will bring, huge
financial gains from the cost of expatriates they will export to us just like
in the oil industry now taken over by their own mostly less educated
professionals compared to locals, economy of raw materials in the industry they
really need in their own environment, making Nigeria a dumping ground for their
products among other reasons. If any country is serious about assisting Nigeria , they should provide funds and expertise
to build, operate, maintain and transfer ownership of thermal plants (OCGT and
CCGTs) in Nigeria
within the shortest time frame possible.
There is no doubt that the capacity credit (I
use a technical term here) of most of the renewable electricity systems is low
compared to that of conventional generation which in simple terms means they
cannot be relied upon for grid operations exactly as electricity generated from
conventional energy sources such as oil, gas, coal etc. Power System is
difficult to explain to non-power engineers especially those who hear about
what takes place in other countries and believe Nigeria should copy them hook
line and sinker without looking at local circumstances.
In this regard, the
24.5 million Euros (N5.3 billion) fund provided to Nigeria under the Nigerian
Energy Support Programme (NESP) by the European Union (EU) and German Federal
Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (DMZ) should be used to focus
on training and development of human capacity for the power sector, strengthen
thermal plants as well as the associated gas gathering facilities (pipelines
and gas-to-power plants) for the power stations, and develop Hydro power
generation schemes in country. No one is ruling out the fact that a general mix
of energy sources will add value, but proper power engineers know that to get
Nigeria out of the meagre generation capacity levels she has today, aggressive
pursuit of significant generation from conventional energy sources such as
hydro, oil, gas, and or coal is urgent!
(Pix: Africareview)
Another
fact to consider is the economics of scale. Those who preach the deployment of
renewable energy sources do not consider the economics. To get Nigeria out of
the parlous state of generation capacity levels today, spending on renewable
energy amounts to being penny wise but pound foolish! This is all down to the
cost benefit analysis of renewable generation. Why will you spend trillions of
dollars to generate a few megawatts of renewable energy from solar or wind,
when you can adequately generate thousands of megawatts with the same amount or
even less? For example, the raw-material for gas thermal plants is vastly
abundant in-country and is sufficient to get Nigeria out of the electricity
quagmire before she can "join" the western world to deceive the rest
of the unwary nations on the need for renewable generation!
If to
be considered at all, the deployment of Biogas for distributed generation may
be a plausible step in the right direction. But take for example, solar panels
(Array of Photo Voltaic cells) used for renewable power generation from the
sun. These require significant amount of land to generate a few tens of
megawatts. Such land in the circumstance of Nigeria
should be made available for building Housing estates to bail Nigeria out of
the Housing crisis already present with us. Arable amount of land should be
better put to use in Agriculture to provide food rather than as an opportunity
cost in the sense of foregone alternative to generating power.
What about the
security of the investment? In Nigeria ,
a mere child will throw stones at these solar panels and break them in one day.
Vandalisation of solar sites will become the order of the day. Whereas,
developed economies who use renewable energy sources have less problems of
housing, food and vandalisation of such facilities even when left in the open.
A lot needs to be considered before jumping to copy technologies from overseas.
What needs to be done like we do in our different spheres of life is to assess
the suitability and practicality of deploying a method from overseas in
country. If possible, the adaptation of ideas to local circumstances is in
order but this has to be handled by Professionals. Quota System syndrome will
not work in this regard!
Let us
now consider the reasons why developed economies who acquired their present
status from the availability of uninterrupted power supply from thermal and
hydro generating stations would want other developing or under-developed
nations to seek their renewable alternatives. A major reason is to slow down
the rate at which poor but aspiring nations develop. Once India and China 's rapid development in recent
times started to make them forces to reckon with in the global economy,
significant effort has been launched to prevent any other nation from the third
world to develop as fast. This is the origin of the climate change conundrum.
The primary public policy argument they put forward in their own countries for
promoting electricity generation from renewable energy sources is the
requirement to reduce pollution that comes from burning fossil fuels. Some
advocate renewable generation to improve energy security, price stability, job
creation, and political jingoism. The truth however is that most of the
developed countries have run out of their own oil reserves. The nations where
they can get imports from are usually in crisis and generally unstable
politically and socially. This level of insecurity of supply is what they have
decided to tackle by switching to energy sources out of the control of humans
which makes perfect sense for them. But that is not what Nigeria needs.
We can
refer to the percentage of electricity generation in civilised country from
renewable energy sources expressed as a percentage of their total electricity
generation to come to grasp with the economy of scale and what may be required
of Nigeria .
Germany currently generates
30% of her electricity from renewable energy sources, USA 10% and the UK about 15%. Judging from the
statistics, the countries we intend to copy generate the bulk of their
electricity from conventional energy sources such as Gas, Oil and Coal. So, why
should we do less?
*Idowu Oyebanjo, a Power System Professional, contributed this piece to SCRUPLES from the UK
This is a very brilliant and pragmatic contribution, I hope the leadership will listen to this type of informed opinion before throwing good money through the window or saddling the country with huge loans.
ReplyDeletei disagree..its a self serving piece probably from someone with interest in the so called "conventional " energy. The advocacy for renewable energy in Nigeria has always and can only be to compliment the conventional sources for now.
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