Why There Should Be No Tariff Increase In The Power Sector!

...NERC Should Make A Public Statement On Charging Methodology

By Idowu Oyebanjo

One of the main problems with the power sector reform in Nigeria is the absence of technocrats in the right positions. This will always lead to reversals and policy summersaults. When those with lack of knowledge of Power Systems speak, especially when the target audience resides predominantly in a country where there has not been electricity for so long, they tend to get away with it.

The problem is that such people constitute a laughing stock when similar comments are made before an international audience. Hear the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor: "For you to have good electricity, you need to pay a little more (to have better maybe)...".

I can guarantee that the National Electricity Regulation Commission (NERC) does not know what it means to determine a cost reflective tariff because these are some of the fundamentals of power systems that only those who have studied power systems and have demonstrable experience or practice can handle. Fake consultants employed by NERC can't do it. The DISCOs or GENCOs advocating for these price increases have not done it either. Can we as public request that NERC publish the analysis used to determine the so called "cost reflective tariffs?"

The power sector needs Nigerians who studied Power Systems, and who work in economies where uninterrupted power supply is the norm, to mediate the correct transition to privatised electricity utility. Although I maintained this position 7 years ago, the position is still valid because you cannot apply the Quota System syndrome to the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. It will fail! There is need to start again or at best, re-jig the status quo of the reform in a way the losses to the nation can be minimised.

*Amadi, NERC Chairman 

Another example of putting the cart before the horse is the fact that the wheeling capacity of the transmission network is known to be lower or at least equal to the peak generation achieved recently in response to the "Buhari Body language" in August 2015. This simply means there is no improvement to power supply that can take place now even when tariffs are increased because the weakest link has not changed and will not change overnight. More than that, I warned the authorities against establishing the electricity market because the power system is not yet ready for it but they have gone ahead because some believe the laws of economics apply to the physics of electricity. 

Try as you may, you will always recourse to the recommendations made by power systems engineer who know their onions. They aren't many worldwide so not all consultants can be of help.  I think because Nigeria has been in darkness for so long, it is in a mysterious way reflective of the attitude of those in charge of the power sector reform. Can we say for the umpteenth time that the only way, and I mean the only way, to have stable electricity supply is to liaise with power system engineers of Nigerian origin with demonstrable experience of power system leading the course in some way?

All of these amount to one thing - Abusing the sensitivities of the already impoverished consumers is the way to loot more money from the federation especially when the government at the federal level has tightened loop holes using the TSA.

 *Idowu Oyebanjo, MNSE, CEng MIET, a Chartered Power System Engineer in the UK is a regular contributor to SCRUPLES

Femi Adesina, An Embarrassment To The Presidency – PDP

Press Statement

Our attention has been drawn to a vacuous statement by the media aide to President Muhammadu Buhari, Mr. Femi Adesina, in his futile attempt to counteract facts presented by the PDP that this administration is dictatorial and selective in its fight against corruption.

*Femi Adesina 

Mr. Adesina, in his habitual deceptive and diversionary manner, left the critical issues of governance raised by Sunday’s press conference addressed by the PDP National Publicity Secretary, Chief Olisa Metuh, and as usual, embarked on insults, shadow-chasing and fouling of the media space with uncouth language.

This office has noted Mr. Adesina’s several previous unwarranted personal attacks and insults deliberately targeted at the person of the PDP National Publicity Secretary, in his desperate attempt to impress his paymaster and retain his job.

Our answer remains that inasmuch as we know that this Presidency aide lacks depth on his current assignment and has no credible defence, being overwhelmed in his job of trying to launder the image of this government, the characteristic resort always, to lies, malice and vituperations should not be an option.

While we appreciate the fact that Mr. Adesina is not conversant and knowledgeable in politics and intricate issues of governance, he should have applied the common sense of covering his hollowness in this regard and save the Presidency the embarrassment of an arrogant attempt to wave off very serious questions hanging in the face of the present administration.

213 Billion Naira Bailout For Power Sector – Foolishness At Large!

By Idowu Oyebanjo 

Earlier in the year, the Nigerian Power Sector witnessed an unprecedented development wherein Government decided to give a whopping sum of 213 billion Naira as "bailout" to Privatised entities who now own and operate the Nigerian Power utilities in what was seen by many as another means of sharing the wealth of the nation by a few. Last week, after disbursing up to 58 million Naira, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor suspended further disbursement to beneficiaries. Some of the pertinent questions include: What becomes of the already disbursed funds? Will disbursed funds still be recouped as intended via the 10 percent interest rate and repayment spread? How will this be tracked?

*Buhari 

The lack of coordination and policy somersault from the Nigerian Power Sector reforms leaves no one in doubt that the lack of planning and deployment of square pegs in round holes in the execution of strategies contribute greatly to the problems of the electricity supply industry in Nigeria. Why do we not have the right kind of people in the right places so that thorough analysis and evaluations are carried out before jumping to execute a strategy only to realise half way that some issues needed to have been looked after before embarking on a journey that technocrats in power sector have warned us against? The answer lies in not involving power system engineers in the decision process plus the lack of knowledge of power systems in Nigeria. The most disturbing thing about the 213 billion Naira been shared is that it came at a time when quality of power supply is low or better put non-existent even as consumers face the ludicrous decision by NERC to start paying higher tariffs for electricity unused. Insult upon Injury!!! Why do we have many reversals of policies in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry especially when this does no more than infuse lack of confidence in investors who are the custodian of the much needed investment in the sector?

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) in the very early days ruled out funding of Electricity Distribution Companies (DISCOs) beyond 2012. This was even against calls from Government to continue to fund the companies. Sound as the reasons for calls for continued funding may appear, let us ask ourselves what the rational and motives behind such call is. If you as an individual offer to sell your car as “scrap” – so cheap, will you want to maintain the car or fund the additional repair works required to put it right? In the first instance, if you are prepared to do just that, you may as well keep it and fix the car for keep.

The buyers of the Discos have definitely prepared to milk Nigerians dry. Their intention is to continue to eat fat from Nigeria’s oil wealth using a different disguise. 

The interesting thing is that they have for many years been eating fat from this same source. The main weapon to check mate such would have been a proper technical and commercial evaluation of interested bidders at the appropriate stage of the selection process. Technical and Commercial evaluation criteria should have been set ab-initio in such a manner that will preclude this barbaric idea of funding privatised entities. It is up to the owners of the privatised utilities to ensure they meet their obligations as required by law. I have in the past expressed concern about the quality of the companies that won the different bids as most of them have not been known to have demonstrable experience in this highly technical field. 

Improvement In Power Sector: Kudos To Obasanjo

By Desmond Orjiakor
Every well-informed Nigerian living in the country since the second coming of the military in December 1983 knows that very little investment was made in the power sector until the Olusegun Obasanjo administration came on board on May 29, 1999. For many, this is a misconception. Another misconception was the one peddled by the late political orator and former minister of power, and later Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Chief Bola Ige, that the sector could be fixed within six months. Those two misconceptions drove the thinking in the power sector. There were also very fundamental structural problems. Public utilities were run as a monopoly. Not just a monopoly, but also very top heavy and centralized in its administration, in the case of the power sector. And so, there were a number of things that had to be done. 

*Obasanjo
There were the reforms, for instance, the 2005 Act, which provides for the unbundling of the utility into different entities which happened during the Obasanjo administration when Senator Liyel Imoke was minister. I think, Imoke worked closely with the Bureau of Public Enterprises, BPE, to make sure that the law was passed. In fact, the Power Reform Act was one of the most difficult laws to be passed in the National Assembly for obvious reasons. But it was passed, and that was the beginning of the reforms in earnest. With the passage of the law, Nigerians started seeing the unbundling of the utilities into smaller entities and this, in turn, saw them independently managed and being run more like business entities. This, of course, was a step in the right direction heading towards ultimately what we now see as the privatization of these utilities.

All the structural amendments that needed to happen, and all started during the Obasanjo administration. There was an attempt to re-bundle the utilities during the Umaru Musa Yar'Adua administration. This delayed for over two years the reforms and progress that had been made. Yet, the fact that the Goodluck Jonathan administration came back to that same blueprint of the Obasanjo era has led to some of the improvements we see in the sector today. We now see that the Federal Government budget for the power sector was very huge. Now, with the private sector buying in and taking some ownership through the privatization process, we are now seeing the Federal Government spending less and the private sector taking more responsibilities for investment in power supply. 

Somaliland: The Strains Of Success

Somaliland’s hybrid system of tri-party democracy and traditional clan-based governance has enabled the consolidation of state-like authority, social and economic recovery and, above all, relative peace and security but now needs reform. Success has brought greater resources, including a special funding status with donors – especially the UK, Denmark and the European Union (EU) – as well as investment from and diplomatic ties with Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), though not international recognition. It is increasingly part of the regional system; ties are especially strong with Ethiopia and Djibouti. Given the continued fragility of the Somalia Federal Government (SFG), which still rejects its former northern region’s independence claims, and civil war across the Gulf of Aden in Yemen, Somaliland’s continued stability is vital. This in turn requires political reforms aimed at greater inclusion, respect for mediating institutions (especially the professional judiciary and parliament) and a regional and wider internationally backed framework for external cooperation and engagement.
CLICK HERE TO READ THE FULL REPORT 

Curbing Violence In Nigeria (III): Revisiting The Niger Delta

Violence in the Niger Delta may soon increase unless the Nigerian government acts quickly and decisively to address long-simmering grievances. With the costly Presidential Amnesty Program for ex-insurgents due to end in a few months, there are increasingly bitter complaints in the region that chronic poverty and catastrophic oil pollution, which fuelled the earlier rebellion, remain largely unaddressed. Since Goodluck Jonathan, the first president from the Delta, lost re-election in March, some activists have resumed agitation for greater resource control and self-determination, and a number of ex-militant leaders are threatening to resume fighting (“return to the creeks”). While the Boko Haram insurgency in the North East is the paramount security challenge, President Muhammadu Buhari rightly identifies the Delta as a priority. He needs to act firmly but carefully to wind down the amnesty program gradually, revamp development and environmental programs, facilitate passage of the long-stalled Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) and improve security and rule of law across the region. CLICK HERE TO READ  THE FULL REPORT

Clark, The Father, Jonathan, The Son

By Reuben Abati 

I HAVE tried delaying the writing of this piece in the honest expectation that someone probably misquoted Chief E.K. Clark, when he reportedly publicly disowned former President Goodluck Jonathan. I had hoped that our dear father, E.K. Clark, would issue a counter statement and say the usual things politicians say: “they quoted me out of context!”  “Jonathan is my son”. That has not happened; rather, some other Ijaw voices, including one Joseph Evah, have come to the defence of the old man, to join hands in rubbishing a man they once defended to the hilt and used as a bargaining chip for the Ijaw interest in the larger Nigerian geo-politics.

 

*Jonathan and Clark 

If President Jonathan had returned to power on May 29, 2015, these same persons would have remained in the corridors of power, displaying all forms of ethnic triumphalism. It is the reason in case they do not realize it, why the existent power blocs that consider themselves most fit to rule, continue to believe that those whose ancestors never ran empires can never be trusted with power, hence they can only be admitted as other people’s agents or as merchants of their own interests which may even be defined for them as is deemed convenient. Mercantilism may bring profit, but in power politics, it destroys integrity and compromises otherwise sacred values.

President Jonathan being publicly condemned by his own Ijaw brothers, particularly those who were once staunch supporters of his government further serves the purpose of exposing the limits of the politics of proximity. Politics in Africa is driven by this particular factor; it is at the root of all the other evils: prebendalism, clientelism and what Matthew Kukah has famously described as the “myownisation of power”.  It is both positive and negative, but obviously, more of the latter than the former. It is considered positive only when it is beneficial to all parties concerned, and when the template changes, the ground also shifts. As in that song, the solid rock of proximity is soon replaced by shifting sands. Old worship becomes new opportunism. And the observant public is left confounded.

*Abati

Chief E.K. Clark? Who would ever think, Chief E.K. Clark would publicly disown President Jonathan?  He says Jonathan was a weak President. At what point did he come to that realization? Yet, throughout the five years (not six, please) of the Jonathan Presidency, he spoke loudly against anyone who opposed the President. He was so combative he was once quoted as suggesting that Nigeria could have problems if Jonathan was not allowed to return to office. Today, he is the one helping President Jonathan’s successor to quench the fires. He always openly said President Jonathan is “his son”. Today, he is not just turning against his own son, he is telling the world his son as President lacked the political will to fight corruption. He has also accused his son of being too much of a gentleman. Really? Gentlemanliness would be considered honourable in refined circles.  Is Pa E.K. Clark recommending something else in order to prove that he is no longer a politician but a statesman as he says?

Five Facts About Millions Trapped In Hunger And Poverty

"World Food Day is marked on 16 October to raise awareness of the challenges of addressing world hunger and encourage people to get involved in the fight against it. The theme for 2015 is "Social protection and agriculture: Breaking the cycle of rural poverty" - which puts the spotlight on the link between ending hunger and food insecurity by enhancing social protection, a key tool in breaking the cycle of poverty.

"Education, healthcare and financial support are all forms of social protection which plays a major role in ensuring direct access to food or the means to buy food. Social protection is also essential in stimulating agricultural production, economic activity, resilience, and to encourage sustainable natural resource uses in local communities..."

CLICK HERE TO READ THE FULL REPORT 

Nelson Mandela ‘Persecuted Me’ Says South African Tribal King

King Buyelekhaya Dalindyebo, the king of the Thembu people, says his prosecution for terrorising his subjects was a political ploy cooked up by Nelson Mandela who had designs on his throne

The “tyrannical and despotic” Xhosa king ordered to jail for 12 years earlier this month for perpetrating a "reign of terror" over his people has blamed Nelson Mandela for his predicament.

King Buyelekhaya Dalindyebo, 51, king of the Thembu clan to which Mr Mandela belonged, lost an appeal against his conviction for assault, arson, kidnapping and defeating the ends of justice heard by South Africa’s Supreme Court of Appeal.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE WHOLE REPORT 

How Safe Are Instant Noodles?

By Carllister Ejinkeonye

For many years now, instant noodles appear to have become one of the most favourite meals in many homes in this part of the world, and seem to have retained the capacity to greatly endear many mothers to their children.  

Ask any child out there the particular meal he expects his mother to serve him once he gets home and he will not hesitate to name his favourite brand of instant noodles. Also, among students faced with several lectures in a day and workers hurrying off to their offices and sundry assignments, instant noodles remain a readily available, easy-to-prepare, meal to quickly assuage biting hunger before rushing off to the next lecture or assignment. 

Some people have even become so addicted to these noodles that even where they have all the time in the world to prepare another meal, they would still settle for their favourite brand of instant noodles. 

(pix: wikipedia)

Whatever the brand – Indomie, Chikki, Mimee, Honeywell, Tummy Tummy,etc, – it has, no doubt, become the magic word that can instantly wake a child from sleep to take his meal when ordinarily he wouldn’t have loved to.  For many children, adolescents and even adults, these noodles qualify as the “real meals” in the family menu.

Not too long ago, I heard some people talking about how these instant noodles do not constitute the healthy diet their consumers have always assumed they are.  This got me really troubled. As is the case in many other homes, instant noodles were also enthusiastically consumed in my own home. 

This now compelled me to research this popular meal, and what I discovered was quite astonishing.  As one with a deep passion for children and youths who of course are the major consumers of this product, I cannot but cry out just like I did in one of my articles last year titled “The Child, The Youth and The Country,  Nigeria.”

I would be glad if the National Agency for Food, Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC), Standard Organisation of Nigeria (SON), the Ministry Of Health and all other government agencies entrusted with the duty of determining the healthiness of what are offered to consumers, and indeed, concerned well-meaning Nigerians, would look at my findings and see if indeed we are not all running after this favourite, easy-to-prepare, delicious meal to our own hurt?  If indeed my discoveries are valid, then many kids and adults are already at the waiting hall of future health disasters.

Now, these instant noodles contain very high amount of sodium, in fact, more than 50% of the recommended limit for adults and even much more for children.  This means that as one consumes other meals that equally contain sodium, it would amount to excess intake which then exposes the consumer to the high risk of hypertension, other heart diseases, stroke, kidney damage, etc. 

Also, these noodles are coated with waxes that are considered very injurious to health. Some findings have even suggested the wax could cause cancer. Now do this little experiment.  Get a pack of instant noodles and put into a bowl, and pour hot water on it which should cover it and wait for a few minutes. You will see the wax coating which was probably used to stick the noodles together separating themselves and floating on the water. 

A look at a pack of instant noodles will also show that one of the ingredients it contains is the toxic preservative known as Tertiary-Butyl Hydroquinone (TBHQ).  The amount of it in the product as stated on the pack may appear small but considering the quantity of instant noodles consumed regularly by many people, soon, several consumers may discover when it has become too late that the amount of this TBHQ in their bodies have become excess and therefore harmful. And according to experts, restlessness in children, nausea and actual vomiting could be some of the indications that one has got this substance in excess in one’s body.  Also, the seasoning that accompanies each pack of instant noodles contains Monosodium Glutamate (MSG). This serves to enhance the flavour of the noodles, thereby increasing its demand and consumption and also the negative effects it has on consumers.  Interestingly, this same additive is found in several prepared and packaged food.  MSG operates on the brain and may affect the brain cells as more doses are consumed over a considerable time.  Its impact on the brain can also lead to several other diseases.

New Oil Revenue Plans: Nigeria Could Shoot Itself In The Foot

By Charles Kennedy

Oil majors operating in Nigeria are growing concerned about the possibility that the government alters the terms of their production-sharing contracts in order to raise more revenues.

The new government of Muhammadu Buhari is scrambling to find ways to plug budget holes. Between July 2014 and September 2015, receipts for the state-owned National Nigerian Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) from selling oil dropped by two-thirds. Nigeria is overwhelmingly dependent on oil for government revenues, and with oil prices down by half from a year ago, fiscal pressure is forcing public officials to take action.

Buhari’s government has said it is interested in renegotiating contracts with oil majors, with some of the contracts dating back to the 1990s. The intention is to tweak the terms in order to boost the government’s take.

There are several majors operating in Nigeria, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, Eni, and most importantly, Royal Dutch Shell. Shell has been operating in Nigeria for decades. On October 5, Shell announced that it had started up the third phase of its offshore Bonga facility, which will have peak production of 50,000 barrels per day.

But a change in the terms of the production-sharing contracts could slow or derail investment in new ventures. The FT reports that there are eight offshore projects, which could add a combined 1 million barrels per day in new production by 2020, that could be deferred because of both low oil prices as well as the uncertain regulatory environment. Shell has already put off its final investment decision on another expansion of the Bonga South West.

In response to the possibility of changing the contracts, an executive from one of the international oil majors reportedly said to the FT: “Don’t mess with the fiscal terms.”

International companies are already slashing spending on new projects as they try to shore up their balance sheets. But the unfolding drama in Nigeria represents a new challenge. Oil-producing countries are also struggling, so battles over how to slice up the revenues from oil fields could proliferate.

By Charles Kennedy of Oilprice.com

The Defeat Of President Buhari’s Idealism

By Femi Aribisala
THINGS  have not been going according to plan for President Buhari.  For the last four months since his famous victory, the president has been engaged with a battle royal with the very people who put him in power.  In order to win the election, Buhari had to form an alliance with wily politicians of the old-school; men seasoned at getting their hands dirty and adept at manipulating the system to power-political advantage.

*Femi Aribasala

Buhari had tried to make it without these men in the past, but without success.  On his third attempt in 2011, he opted for Tunde Bakare as his running mate.  Bakare was not a politician but a man of known integrity: a radical Christian pastor to boot.  Nevertheless, Buhari still lost by 10 million votes to the lesser-known Goodluck Jonathan.

In 2015, he chose Yemi Osinbajo as his running-mate, another man of integrity and, yet again, a Christian pastor.  But there was something different this time around.  He agreed to dine with known  political devils.  He formed an alliance with the very political elite he had long despised.  These are men who know the crooked ropes of the Nigerian political system.  They know how to finance a nationwide campaign  with  funds obtained magically; no questions asked.  They know  how to buy and manipulate the press.  They know  how to conjure votes with the sleight of hand.

With their help, Buhari finally became president against all the odds.  The million naira question then became how he would rule alongside these strange bedfellows.  How is he going to be their anointed president without becoming one of them?  How is he going to be president without becoming another politician?  How can he become president through the help of these men without becoming hostage to them in his victory?

Buhari  has  kept Nigeria waiting as he struggled with this dilemma.  While the press nicknamed him “Baba Go-Slow,” behind the scenes, he was fighting an epic battle against his strange allies the best way he knew how.  In that free-for-all, Buhari has thrown his best punches and made his best moves.  Finally, after four months of protracted infighting in which his media handlers  tried all they could to put the best spin on the situation, he finally caved in and accepted defeat.

On 30th September, 2015, Buhari was forced to accept he could not go it alone.  On that day, he finally decided to join the APC politically as its president.  Even more significantly, he finally agreed to join forces as president with those he had despised all his political life; the PDP.  On that fateful day, President Muhammadu Buhari jettisoned his earlier druthers.  He relinquished his much-ballyhooed “change” programme and became reluctantly a full-fledged old-school politician.

*President Buhari and Senate President, Saraki

Buhari’s first mistake was to presume his campaign idealism could carry him through his presidency.  Having won the election comfortably, the president decided the decent thing to do was to allow the legislators in the National Assembly to choose their own leaders without interference from Aso Rock.

This was a departure  from the procedure of his predecessors and his naïve supporters praised him for it.  This was the Buhari they voted for; a man who would breathe new life into the clogged political system.  But the whole thing backfired disastrously as the president became a victim of his own attempted saintliness.

Central African Republic: The Roots Of Violence

The full report is currently available in: French.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Crisis in the Central African Republic (CAR) is longterm and characterised by sporadic surges of violence against a backdrop of state disintegration, a survival economy and deep inter-ethnic cleavages. Armed groups (including the anti-balaka and the ex-Seleka) are fragmenting and becoming increasingly criminalised; intercommunal tensions have hampered efforts to promote CAR’s national unity and mend its social fabric. Unfortunately, the roadmap to end the crisis, which includes elections before the end of 2015, presents a short-term answer. To avoid pursuing a strategy that would merely postpone addressing critical challenges until after the polls, CAR’s transitional authorities and international partners should address them now by implementing a comprehensive disarmament policy, and reaffirming that Muslims belong within the nation. If this does not happen, the elections risk becoming a zero-sum game.

By virtue of its geography and history, CAR is located at the crossroads between two regions and two peoples: in the north, the Sahel with its pastoralist communities and majority Muslim merchants, and in the south, Central Africa with its communities of the savanna, initially animist but now predominantly Christian. The Seleka power grab in March 2013 marked a fundamental reversal of CAR’s traditional political landscape. For the first time since independence, a force stemming from the Muslim population of the north and east of the country held the reins of power. The ensuing clashes between Seleka and anti-balaka forces generated strong intercommunal tensions that were exacerbated by the instrumentalisation of religion, societal fractures and collective fears, reviving traumatic memories of the pre-colonial slave trade era.

Cameroon: The Threat of Religious Radicalism

The full report is available in: French.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

In Cameroon, the rise of Christian revivalist (born again) and Muslim fundamentalist movements is rapidly changing the religious landscape and paving the way for religious intolerance. Fundamentalist groups’ emergence, combined with communal tensions, creates a specific risk in the North and increases competition for leadership of the Muslim community: such competition has already led to local conflicts. 

*President Paul Biya of Cameroon 

Moreover, the various religious groups have negative perceptions of each other. The state and the mainstream religious organisations’ response to the emerging radicalism is limited to the Boko Haram threat and therefore inadequate, and in some cases carries risk. A coherent and comprehensive response has to be implemented by the government and religious organisations to preserve religious tolerance and to avoid the kind of religious violence seen in neighbouring Nigeria and the Central African Republic.

Unlike these two countries, Cameroon has never experienced significant sectarian violence. However, the emergence of radical religious groups risks destabilising its climate of religious tolerance. Traditional Sufi Islam is increasingly challenged by the rise of more rigorist Islamic ideology, mostly Wahhabism. The current transformation is mainly promoted by young Cameroonian Muslims from the South, whereas the Sufi Islam of the North, dominated by the Fulani, seems on the decline. These southern youths speak Arabic, are often educated in Sudan and the Gulf countries, and are opposed both to Fulani control of the Muslim community and to the ageing religious establishment. Disagreements between Sufi leaders, traditional spiritual leaders and these newcomers are not only theological: the conflict between “ancients” and “moderns” is also a matter of economic and political influence within the Muslim community.

These changes have divided Muslim communities and already degenerated into localised clashes between Islamic groups. Fundamentalist groups’ growth in the North, combined with local communal tensions, is a potential source of conflict. In the South, the competition between Sufi members and Wahhabi-inspired groups over leadership of the Muslim community will increase and could lead to localised violence.