Nigeria Is Failing At 64; Sadly, Its Leaders Are In Denial

 By Olu Fasan

Every nation that secured independence from its colonial rulers celebrates the freedom annually, as Nigeria did recently on its 64th Independence anniversary. However, such events transcend the symbolism. The real worth of an independence anniversary lies in whether a nation is better off today than it was at independence.

On that score, several former colonies have advanced in leaps and bounds. For instance, India of today is a world apart from India of 1947. Singapore of today is not the backwater entity of 1965. By contrast, Nigeria of today is far worse than Nigeria of 1960. On any metric of development, Nigeria has utterly regressed since independence and it is today, at 64, a failing nation. Sadly, Nigeria’s leaders, and many of its citizens, are in denial; they are unperturbed by Nigeria’s worsening state. 

Well, let’s put that in perspective. Individually, in terms of personal accomplishments, some Nigerians have done extremely well since independence. After all, a Nigerian is the first African to win the Nobel Prize in Literature; after all, a Nigerian is the first African and first woman to become the Director-General of the World Trade Organisation. What about the individual attainments of some Nigerians in the field of music and, indeed, in other human endeavours? But those individual strokes of genius are in spite of, not because of, Nigeria. 

Surely, all Nigerians, including the few who have done well personally, must be troubled that Nigeria itself is stuck in a rut, sinking deeper into the abyss, while over 90 per cent of Nigerians are condemned to solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short lives, as Thomas Hobbes would put it, with no hope of a better future. Every nation faces challenges, but there’s hope if a country’s future trajectory is promising. Unfortunately, Nigeria’s political and economic trajectories, unless there are intervening radical transformations, do not bode well for the country’s future, nor does the kind of self-serving and entitled leaders who seek power for self-aggrandisement and self-reward, while paying lip service to Nigeria’s progress. This is a far cry from the palpable euphoria on the eve of independence. 

In his book, There Was a Country, Professor Chinua Achebe captured the excitement this way. “The general feeling in the air as independence approached was extraordinary, like the building anticipation of the relief of torrential rains after a season of scorching hot harmattan winds and bush fires.” Of course, as everyone knows, that euphoria did not last. Today, 64 years later, Nigeria is in a “season of scorching hot harmattan winds and bush fires”. Sadly, there’s no hope of the relief of torrential rains. If anything, things are far worse today than they were in the immediate post-independence era of the 1960s.

Politically, the in-built disunity and inter-ethnic tensions that led to two military coups and a devastating civil war within seven years of Nigeria’s independence are far more pronounced today, except that the Nigerian state is far more able, brutally, to repress separatist agitations and civil unrest. But who says that the impending political inferno in Rivers State cannot spread across the South-South and rupture Nigeria, if badly handled?

Economically, Nigeria of the 1960s had a flourishing manufacturing sector and a diverse export base – well, not today’s Nigeria. As Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala pointed out in her recent speech at the Nigerian Bar Association’s annual conference, in the first half of the 1960s, Nigeria’s per capita income was at par with that of South Korea, at $120. Today, Nigeria’s per capita income is $1,110; South Korea’s is $34,165. Indeed, Nigeria currently ranks 168th out of 192 countries in terms of GDP per capita!

Amid the economic collapse, Nigeria’s population is exploding. In 1960, Nigeria’s population was 46 million; UK’s was 52 million. Fast forward to 2022, Nigeria’s population was 219 million; UK’s was 67million. By 2070, it is projected, Nigeria’s population will be 550.37 million, the UK’s will be 78.81 million. According to the United Nations, by 2100, Nigeria will overtake China to become the world’s second most populous country after India. That’s not an outlandish projection given that Nigeria adds about 5.5 million people to its population every year.

But what’s the future for Nigeria as the world’s second most populous country if its political structure remains as deeply flawed as it is, and if its economy remains dependent on oil and gas exports amid global peak demands. China and India overcame the challenges of their large populations through superlative economic growth that massively expanded their middle classes and took several millions out of unemployment and poverty. There is nothing in Nigeria’s structural make-up, as it is, that can enable it to birth such miracles.

 

Yet, none of this keeps Nigeria’s leaders awake at night. Instead, they are patting themselves on the back and awarding themselves national honours for nothing other than leeching off the state. What’s more, Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s braggadocious president, has perfected the art of boosterism, of empty rhetoric. He believes that merely sounding positive about a problem makes it disappear, as if economic, political and social challenges automatically obey presidential pronouncements.

In his 64th Independence Anniversary speech, Tinubu said: “Fellow Nigerians, better days are ahead of us”, adding: “I urge you to believe in our nation’s promise.” In another speech, he said: “We are giant of Africa and must remain so.” Does he know that Nigeria is now the fourth largest economy in Africa, not the first, and has the 18th lowest per capita income? And what’s Tinubu doing that can make the “better days” and “nation’s promise” achievable? Of course, nothing credible. He announced the “Economic Stabilisation Bills” to make the business environment “more friendly”. But how can businesses grow and create jobs when interest rate is 27.25 per cent, inflation is 32 per cent and a weak naira hikes up input costs, not to mention several other supply-side constraints? 

Clearly, Tinubu has not embraced the economic wisdom that growth is a rising tide that lifts all boats, and the key antidote to youth unemployment. He wants to organise a 30-day youth conference to address youth unemployment, but the solution to youth unemployment is sound economic policy, not a youth confab. He also wants to use the youth conference to “foster national unity and building social harmony and cohesion.” But that’s shadowboxing, a too-clever-by-half attempt to sidetrack the call for a cross-party, cross-ethnic and cross-society national conference to give Nigeria a negotiated political settlement and a new constitution.

Truth is, Nigeria is a struggling nation at 64 and faces a dire future without root and branch structural transformations. Denialism or boosterism won’t save the country; only radical, seismic shifts will.    

*Dr. Fasan is a commentator on public issues