No Food, No Fuel, No Power, No Forex, No Hope

 By Dele Sobowale

“An army marches on its stomach.” 

— Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821; Vanguard Book of Quotations, p. 14, available online

Right now several millions of Nigerians’ stomachs are empty; and movement has virtually stopped. Unfortunately, it is not only the scarcity of food and high prices which are slowing us down, scarcity of all the things which make life worth living in the new millennium imperil us.

Fuel is scarce; and will remain so indefinitely. The Minister of Power is powerless and can seldom supply beyond 4,000MW per day. The Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, after the initial attempt to force down exchange rate, is now tired and bewildered.

Everybody in Nigeria, including its authors, apparently, has forgotten there was once a document titled Renewed Hope. Pervasive scarcity was predicted by Vanguard Newspaper in December 2023. We were preaching to the deaf. Indisputable and punishing truths now stare us in the face. Because, for me, food comes first, permit me to give the floor to a real victim of on-going famine in Nigeria. It is heart-rending.

The story appeared on the back page of the Weekend Trust, written by Dr Fatima Damagun, titled, ‘‘Nigeria’s hunger crises’’. I was tempted to ignore it. After all, what else can be said about the subject? But, Fatima is an engaging writer and her articles are must-read for me. For somebody passionate about the food crisis, I was shocked to the bone marrows. Please read.

“On days when they cannot afford to eat rice or tuwo for dinner, the wife treks to a nearby village where women like her pick a type of leaf called Tafasa Senna Tora. The plant grows wild in most of the tropics and is considered a weed in many places. When the plant is not available, his wife usually buys it at N200 per bowl and then takes it home to prepare it. The leaves are washed and mixed with oil, maggi and pepper and consumed as a local salad. Those who have eaten this leaf attest to its foul taste. No amount of maggi or pepper can mask its foul taste. It is eaten solely to subdue the pangs of hunger.”

Merely reading the story about a family in her community was enough to make one throw up. The fact that this foul-smelling leaf had been commercialised provides conclusive proof that other families and individuals are now forced to swallow it. That should also warn all of us about the food calamity which lies ahead. Only God knows how many of us are now compelled to eat from other peoples’ dust bins.

There are more dangers ahead. Here is why.

More floods expected nationwide

“Declare emergency on flood, ravages states, N-HYPPADEC begs FG” – Vanguard news report on September 3, 2024.

The report by Wole Mosadomi, pointed out why the National Hydroelectric Power Producing Areas Development Commission (N-HYPPADEC) is making this needless appeal to the Federal Government – which is blissfully unaware that Tinubu’s food security programmes are in shreds on account of floods in about 29 states.

Specifically, the Commission drew attention to loss of lives in Niger and Kebbi states; 634 communities and 30,000 farmlands affected in Benue; 6,959 households and 10,000 farmlands in Kebbi state.

Before N-HYPPADEC raised its own alarm, reports from Yobe and Adamawa states  indicate widespread flooding in the North-East before the release of water from Lagdo dam in Cameroon – which inevitably brings disaster every time. Obviously, the worst food tragedies are still ahead of us. The temporary relief provided by the drop in food prices of perishable food items like tomatoes and peppers might lure us into a false sense of progress – when indeed the reverse is the case. This year’s harvest, in the aggregate, might still be the worst ever in a long time.

Time to think out of the box

“Impress it on the mind of any man that he can do no wrong; and he will soon convince you of your mistake.” – Joel Barlow, 1754-1812

Presidents and Governors always announce that they “want all hands on deck”. In reality, the only hands they want to see on deck are those of sycophants and boot-lickers. They invariably prefer the “Yes-men”; who assure them that they can do no wrong. Their appointees falsify reports; stifle the truth from reaching them; and when it finally does, shift the blame to political opponents –until the man leaves office and can do nothing to correct the mistakes made.

The biggest mistake being made right now concerns the efforts to achieve sustainable food security for Nigeria. At the federal and state levels, our leaders still assume that  all governments have to do is to provide inputs and farmers can go to farms to produce what we need. Nothing can be more fallacious. States which have launched tractors; provided fertilisers and other inputs, are now confronted with banditry, floods and drought. 

Of what use are combine harvesters when the crops shrivel on account of drought or are washed away by flood, or stolen by bandits? Obviously, a new approach is needed; based on shifting more agricultural activities upland and to more secure urban/suburban areas. Yet, nobody is working on this.

Palliatives advertise failure and are unsustainable for long. People in any nation are not fed by being given food. They are best fed by being encouraged, even forced, to produce food.

Fuel prices officially gallop

“Anxiety as pump price of petrol races towards N1,405/litre.” – Vanguard Newspaper, on the same day, brought Nigerians more bad news.

After experiencing queues for weeks, the pump price in some states was approaching N1,405; and the next day, all the news media were reporting official rise in pump price of petrol ranging “between N930 and N1,350/litre”. Predictably, confusion engulfed the fuel market. Still the fuel was not available everywhere. 

It was ironical that a week after the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, FCCPC, ordered traders to crash prices of commodities or face the wrath of government, fuel prices have galloped faster than any other commodity. Will Mr Tunji Bello, the Chief Executive of FCCPC, order the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL, to crash price and return to N610/litre? It is doubtful.

The sudden rise of petrol prices and FCCPC’s previous ill-advised order reflect a totally confused government – which is not in control of the situation.

However, because price is an instrument for crowd control, the new price, whatever it might be, has kicked some consumers out of the fuel market. One of my acquaintances, a hotelier, struggling to keep the place running despite dwindling patronage, has retrenched all his staff. Revenue no longer covers the cost of running generators alone; he intends to convert the hotel to residential building. As he said sadly, “Let the tenants worry about how to buy fuel for their generators. I am out of it”. Twenty people are now jobless.

Power deception

“Power generation hits 5,313MW, first time in three years.” – News report.

Just in case you think that Nigeria is making progress on power generation and before the spin doctors take over, please remember this. Nigeria was once alleged to be the largest economy in Africa with GDP estimated at $510 billion. Now, the GDP is closer to $270 billion; and we are now number four. Here is one reason: South Africa produces 244,383 GWh of power, Egypt, 209,677GWh, Algeria 83,390 GWh, Morocco 42,561 GWh and Nigeria 36,037 GWh. FG failed again. 

*Dr. Sobowale is a commentator on public issues