By Owei Lakemfa
Heart surgeon, Masoud Pezeshkian, was sworn-in as President of Iran on Tuesday, July 30, 2024. His primary concern seemed to be about lifting the unilateral sanctions the United States, US, had imposed on his country. Reviving the economy is fundamental for the citizenry and the sure way of winning their hearts.
However, he would have been forced to have a change of heart within 24 hours. The first major challenge he is faced with now is how to react to Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh. The latter had accepted Iran’s invitation to attend his swearing-in ceremony. At the occasion, Haniyeh who had been well received, flashed the victory sign. But the very next day, Israel assassinated him in Tehran.
Unless Israel makes propitiation, President
Pezeshkian would have no choice but to order a retaliation. Haniyeh had been
his guest and he had the duty to protect him. Also, Israel by the
assassination, had violated Iran’s sovereignty. On both scores, Iran seems
duty-bound to defend its honour.
A similar scenario had played
out after Israel attacked the Iranian Embassy in Damascus on April 1, 2024. It
killed 16 persons, including Iranian Generals Mohammed Reza Zahedi and Mohammed
Hadi Rahimi. On April 13 and 14, Iran sent armed drones, ballistic and cruise
missiles into Israel. On that occasion, it deliberately used slow missiles that
got to Israel in five hours, thereby giving the latter and its allies, enough
time to shoot almost all of them down. This time, it remains to be seen whether
Iran would adopt a similar method, or use its hypersonic missile which can hit Israel
within 17 minutes.
Also, by killing Haniyeh, Israel
has deliberately wrecked the peace process in Gaza. The US, Israel’s chief
guarantor, rather than be sympathetic, told the United Nations Security Council
it was not sure about Haniyeh’s assassination, but that the killing would not
stop the peace process.
But the reality is that the assassination would hinder the peace process and make it much more difficult. This is partly because Haniyeh was not an armed combatant nor was he given to the idea of destroying Israel. I had wondered how he was able to survive in the Hamas leadership given the fact that he did not hide his preference for a two-state solution in which Israel and Palestine would live peacefully within secured borders.
Despite his parents having been expelled from their ancestral
homes by Israel, his being born and growing up in the Shati refugee camp, his
imprisonment thrice by Israel and expulsion to Lebanon, he still held to the
basic principles of peace for all in the Middle East. This year, three of his
sons and three grandchildren were killed in Gaza in an Israeli air-strike.
Despite his travails and personal tragedies, he insisted that negotiations and
reconciliation were the proper route to take in the Middle East. The murder of
such a moderate can only give rise to more militant figures in the region.
Haniyeh lived in Qatar, a tiny,
rich and quite sensible country that has been at the heart of the on-going
peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas. It was a clearly frustrated Qatari
Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani who in reaction to
Haniyeh’s assassination wrote: “Political assassinations and continued
targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue, lead us to ask, how can
mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other
side?”
The assassination is coming just
days after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned from a triumphant
visit to the US. There, the American Congress opened its hallowed chambers to
him. As American parliamentarians lousily applauded every sentence of
Netanyahu, sometimes even when he was midway, I wondered if they realised that
they disgraced their country and demeaned its democratic credentials by opening
their parliamentary doors to controversial Netanyahu.
In an escalation, the
Israeli-occupied Golan Heights in Syria has also been attacked allegedly by
Hamas. Earlier, on July 19, 2024, a drone by the Houthis in Yemen struck Tel
Aviv killing a man. Next day, Israel attacked the Yemeni port of Hodeida
allegedly causing over a $20 million damage.
Now, the stage is set for a
regional war in the Middle East. On the eve of the assassination, the US and
the United Kingdom were rushing troops to the region. On that day, three US
ships, USS Wasp, USS Oak Hill and USS New York were streaming towards Lebanon
with 2,200 soldiers on board. US Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin, in
knowledging that his country was sending those ships said: “If Israel is
attacked, yes, we will help Israel defend itself. We’ve been clear about that
from the very beginning.” On its part, the UK already has its Royal Navy and
Royal Air Force operating in the region. Perhaps, buoyed by these actions and
steps, Israel, that day, attacked Beirut, the Lebanese capital.
If these actions escalate, there is likely to be a
regional war in the Middle East. One that will pitch Israel and its European
and American partners against Iran and its allies. Such war will immediately
suck in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the
Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Anwar Allah –Houthis in Yemen, the Syrian military,
Hamas and possibly, Fattah in the Palestine.
However, there is the question
whether Europe on whose soil the War in Ukraine is being fought, would want to
open a second front in the Middle East. Except for mercenaries, they do not
have boots on the ground in Ukraine, would they send troops to fight on the
side of Israel? I doubt it.
The US since its military defeat
in Vietnam has been careful about committing its citizens to battle. Its
involvement in the Libyan War, was from the air. Yes, it had troops in the
Iraqi and Afghan wars, but these might have seemed to be easy wars. Despite
this, it relied heavily on the use of mercenaries, especially of the Blackwater
company which due to its atrocities against civilian populations, changed its
name, first to Xe, and now, Academi.
One country that thought it
could start a war because it had American and NATO backing, was Georgia. But
neither the US nor Europe was willing to commit their troops to fighting the
Russians, so the Georgian War which began on August 7, 2008 lasted just nine
days. I doubt if they would ever send troops to fight in the Ukrainian War as
French President Emmanuel Macron once canvassed.
Israel might just find that in
the event of a regional war, NATO would not send troops to fight on its side.
Israel is like an animal skin drum, beating too loudly; it may just go burst.
*Lakemfa
is a commentator on public issues
No comments:
Post a Comment