By Ugoji Egbujo
While the naira gasped for breath, the nation sent 400 tourists to Dubai to fill the gallery in a climate change conference. Two weeks ago, the President dabbed powder on the wound. He announced a cut in his entourage and those of his wife and ministers. The general attitude of the country to the looming disaster seems surreal.
At N1400 for a dollar, alarm bells should be ringing. But in the highest offices in the land and amongst politicians, the dollar has become the preferred instrument of settlement and lubrication. Nothing moves the leaders of this country. In the middle of this economic tornado, a minister signed off air tickets to a non-existent Kogi airport. The new government met a mess. But it has been sloppy and haphazard.
At the
outset, the President started bold reforms and received accolades. He said he
removed the petrol subsidy to save the economy. In May last year, the subsidy
was in the neighbourhood of 300-400 per litre. Indeed, that subsidy had gone
cancerous. But the President has run into a foreseeable storm. Many said he
spoke before thinking. Others said he did it standing. The Igbo say when a
child is conceived in a standing position, chances are it will be mad.
The subsidy the President yanked off
on day one returned with a swagger through the backdoor. Now, seven months
after the President received medals for removing it, the President is illegally
and clandestinely running a heavier subsidy. He will argue national security.
Yes, the masses are tired of fruitless sacrifices. But our West African
neighbours have resumed feasting on our cheap fuel.
The subsidy removal has effectively
failed. The Dangote and other refineries coming on stream will need a level,
open playing field. But the President, having failed to trim his government and
cut costs, now lacks the conviction, moral and political, to see through the
policy. Pride and propaganda have inhibited the government. While removing the
subsidy, the President and his team didn’t think deeply. They either didn’t see
that dollar illiquidity could strangulate the process or overestimated
themselves and their ability to drag in foreign capital. The shit has hit the
fan. But that isn’t the tragedy. Our politicians are aloof.
On resumption, the President floated the
naira. Prohibition on certain items was lifted. Free market folks clapped. At
the time, the naira exchanged for 700 to the dollar in the parallel market. The
President said the true value of the naira was below 700. The government said
the vast gulf between the official and black market rates fueled dollar
racketeering and discouraged foreign investors. Seven months later, the naira
is in the mud. The exchange rate is about N1400 to the dollar at the parallel
market. The gulf between the rates has widened. Foreign investments have
retracted from the confusion. Inflation has ripped the roof, and nobody is
talking about job creation because the economic environment is tremulous.
If the President and his team had no clear solution to the mountain of the backlog of dollar obligations left by Buhari and Emefiele, why did they allow the naira to go into this cage fight? Now, the naira lies battered and bleeding, and the dollar saunters around in homes and offices as the underground national currency. The tragedy isn’t the predicament of the naira. The tragedy is the casual detachment of governors, ministers and senior govt officials from this frightening reality.
So without
wrinkles, the federal government travels cap in hand from Asia to Europe,
scouring and scavenging, looking for pints of dollars to transfuse into the
economy to resuscitate the dying naira. Some say the President will find his
rhythm.
The President must show urgency. The
banks are feeding fat on the situation, selling dollars through the backdoor,
but nobody barks at them. The dollar racketeering of the Buhari administration
has returned with a vengeance. The widening gulf between the rates makes
control impossible. Foreign direct investments are too paranoid to dip a foot
in. In an import-dependent economy, this is a combustible mixture. People are
becoming poorer daily. Food and medicines are going out of reach. The youths
are jobless and hungry. With an unstable and perishing naira, with the
inevitable return of fuel subsidy, with rampant banditry and kidnapping, the
future looks utterly bleak. The President is too relaxed. His body language
allows laxity.
The solution isn’t too difficult.
Nigeria is a resilient country. The masses are forgiving. The population is
youthful and politically docile. This gives the President ample room to
mobilise the nation to face the adversity. He can think it through, they won’t
stampede him. However, the nation and its youths need a clear vision. Vision,
not propaganda, creates enduring hope. The President might show a little
urgency. A clear vision of a prosperous and united country of equal citizens
must be painted with a brush of honesty. No outlandish propagandising.
The President must lead by example. If
he preaches cost cutting, as he should, then he must trim his cabinet and
operating costs to the bone. Clear targets must be handed out to ministers and
service chiefs. Those who fail must be sacked and replaced. The country must be
run like a business. Governors will watch and fall in line. All traces of
frivolity and wastefulness must be expunged and banished.
Security
agencies must get a special license to stamp out the use of dollars as
underground currency in Nigerian politics and the public sector. The service
chiefs must stamp out crude oil theft and banditry or be fired. We can’t
continue borrowing what we are losing to thieves at home. We can’t continue the
crowdfunding of ransoms. The activities of banks must be tightly controlled,
and whistleblowers must be rewarded promptly. When we find a breathing space,
then we can do constitutional amendments to devolve power to the periphery.
The naira
is dying. The President cannot continue with the equanimity of a babalawo.
*Dr. Ugoji is a commentator on public issues
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