By Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka
The SDGs, among others seek to reduce poverty, improve access to health care and education, mitigate the effects of climate change and attain food security by 2030. We are not meeting the key Goals.
Africa is unable to feed itself. We found during COVID-19 that we cannot produce a large percentage of drugs we need. The region relies on imports for food and will remain so unless there is an urgent paradigmatic shift in the structures of African economies. Food imports cost Africa US$55 billion a year but this could double to $110 billion by 2030. Many African cities will double in size by 2050, increasing demand for food and other infrastructure and services.
The UN in a recent report estimates that around 735 million people
are experiencing food insecurity globally, an increase of 122 million people
since 2019. Nigeria and other fragile states, more so Africa, are now on the
red alert of famine. This current condition means that we have experienced a
development Regress rather than moving towards zero hunger by 2030. The world
is in fact worse off than we were in 2015.
Many of you are familiar with the concept of the Middle-Income
Trap. A middle-income trap is a scenario where the country’s economy is
unable to transition from around $10,000 income per capita to the status of
high per-capita income levels. As a rule, Low-income countries often tend to
transition faster to middle-income levels, driven by low wages, cheap labour
and basic technology catch-up.
Nigeria is classified as a Low-Middle Income, but it currently
defies that categorization. Low-income economies like the predominantly Least
Developed Countries (LDCs) suffer the most from external shocks because
collectively, they are the world’s most vulnerable economies. These countries
are characterised by low and weak levels of resilience, weak political and
financial and institutions that could buffer external shocks such as the
Russia-Ukraine war and subsisting climate change. Underpinning this
economic condition is poor governance manifesting in weak service delivery.
We all know that Low-income countries continuously experience
economic stagnation and sporadic growth that creates planning and investment
nightmare. On the contrary Middle-income countries with strong manufacturing
base experience sustainable economic growth. These economies have developed the
productive capabilities for high value added and technologically complex goods.
The same with High-income countries that engage in increasing returns economic
activities with industrial market structures with significant innovate on
capacity.
So why do we remain in the Poverty Trap? And what does a Poverty
Trap look like? It is best described by the state of most African rural
dwellers, mostly rural farmers and informal enterprises in the urban sprawls.
Africa’s urban informal economies often glamorised by some is a drag on
economic growth. In this state, nearly 70 percent of households make their
living from subsistence agriculture in the case of rural dwellers.
It is a condition where humans have access to the barest the minimum of life such as food and shelter. Life here is at the fringes of impending famine and unsparing poverty.
The English philosopher Thomas Hobbes rightly put it in his
book Leviathan that in the state of nature would be “solitary, poor,
nasty, brutish, and short.”
For the most part, and in large swathes of Africa and Nigeria, a
greater proportion of households derive their livelihoods from subsistence
farming cultivating some important food crops. An important source of subsistence
living is that the sector is characterized by low-yield staple food crops on
small plots with a minimal use of technology and inputs such as fertilizer or
high yielding seed varieties. These farms depend on rainwater, thus subjecting
production to the vagaries of the weather. When rain fails, these people go
hungry in a world where science makes rain possible in a desert place.
This low-income trap or Poverty Trap is a reality for most people. It is a
condition which entraps people in perpetual poverty unless there are forces to
break it. I call it a destitution equilibrium: this is a state in which
opposing forces of income and expenditure are balanced. The balance of
forces makes it so binding that it doesn’t allow the poor people to escape it. The
people so trapped never have enough. When they are hungry, they beg or die.
When their children fall sick, they die.
Those caught in this Trap live in urban slums or rural huts and
cook with firewood; 90,000 of them mainly women and children, die annually from
smoke and other complications. 70 percent of Nigeria’s population still depends
solely on fuel wood in meeting their energy needs for cooking and heating.
The only way of escape from this debilitating condition is to
deliberately plan the transition from a low-income economy to a middle-income
economy through industrialisation. This takes place when an agrarian economy
enters the early stages of industrialisation. This transition brings about
significant changes to the form and contents of production even when
labor-based activity remains unchanged. It takes the poor and needy to a
different better income level; industrialisation lifts them out of poverty.
Where does it begin? It starts with raising agricultural
productivity which equally depends on the industrial manufacturing sector,
especially the capital goods subsector, which generates the requisite capital
goods (machines and tractors for example). The pathway to industrialize
agriculture lies in optimal deployment of the combination of skills, knowledge,
and the use of productive inputs such as fertilizer, agro-chemicals, and new
farming techniques, among others.
The role played by, and the evolution of a country’s economic
structure, and how long this takes, fundamentally shapes economic performance. We
must remember that all societies evolved from agrarian to industrial and
services. How an economy succeeds in transforming itself and what economic
structures (industry versus subsistence agriculture) predominate, explains the
differences in economic development.
Take South Korea where the dominant sector is manufacturing. Its GDP is expected to be $1.7 trillion in 2023, 3.5 times that of Nigeria: $492 billion. In 2021, the revenue of the largest ten chaebols, which include Samsung and LG, made up about 60% of the country’s GDP.
To illustrate the binding power of
the poverty trap, let me share with you four intertwining indicators of
national economic performance. Nigeria’s Agricultural contribution to GDP has
remained constant for 45 years at 22-25%.
Compare
Tunisia (10%), Malaysia (9.6%), Thailand (8.5%), Netherlands (1.6%), UK (0.6%).
Second indicator, Nigeria: the % of Agricultural employment in the population
is 35%. S. Korea (5%), Ethiopia (65%), Malaysia (9.6%), Thailand (8.5%),
Netherlands (2.3%), UK (0.7%).
The experience from every high-income country in the world shows
that NO middle-or high-income countries in the world have more than 10 percent
of their population, directly engaged in agriculture.
Third, Nigeria’s Manufacturing contribution to GDP has remained
under 10% for 45 years. Look at S. Korea (25.5%), Malaysia (24%), an upper
middle-income country; SA (12%).
Fourth, Nigeria’s Income per capita fluctuates around $2,000-2,450
for the last 45 years. Compare with S. Korea: 2022: ($32,420), SA ($6,776.5).
Malaysia ($12,000).
What makes the difference? These countries systematically planned
and transited from agrarian societies through structural transformation into
industrial societies; at the heart of which was manufacturing. It is the reason
their economies reduced agriculture contribution to GDP, while Manufacturing
contribution rose over time. It is essentially a shift away from low-skill,
low-productivity economic activities with diminishing returns.
The
fundamental point to be made by these numbers is that the evolution into new
sectors, more pointedly, from low-level agrarian agriculture to value-adding
manufacturing including food processing, determines long-term economic
development. It is why rich countries are described as “advanced Industrial
nations”. Emphasis on Industrial manufacturing.
To make sustainable progress we must target Growth in agriculture
(at least by 6% per year), we must foster creation of non-farm rural employment
and rural industrialization, and the transformation of domestic (and access
to), international markets. With these steps, we will dramatically change the
face of rural Africa and Nigeria on the way to modernization.
We must transform the mainstay Low-level agri-food
industry which is the Sahel’s largest economic sector, accounting for a
third of its GDP and 75 percent of its employment into modern commercial
enterprises. The subregion is a major producer of cotton, cereals, and
livestock, with significant potential in horticultural products, oilseed crops,
and nuts. All mostly unprocessed.
Another important issue to address is the situation where
population growth is rising above economic growth. When we compare the growth
in population and per capita income in Sub-Sahara Africa from 1981 to 2022,
growth in population has been consistently higher and almost at the same level
over the years between 2.40% to 2.90%. It is a recipe for poverty.
However, growth in the Per Capita Gross Domestic Product (per
capita GDP) has been fluctuating over the years from -5.22% to 3.72%. For the
most part, growth in population had been higher than growth in Per the
low-level equilibrium Trap as they have not succeeded in generating a
sufficient high-income growth rate to meet up the high rates of population.
This rapid population growth is fueling the demand for food
especially in the urban areas. Between 2017 and 2050, the populations of 26
African countries are predicted to at least double in size, while the rural
population of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to rise by 53 per cent.
While some countries achieved significantly high growth over some
years, there has been a lack of growth sustainability and persistence. The per
capita income growth has not always grown for a sustainably long enough period;
rather, short periods of rapid growth are punctuated by collapses and sometimes
stagnation. Policies need to drive our economies to move into higher sustained
growth to ensure that the rates of income growth outpace the rates of
population growth.
To
break the cycle of poverty, we must break the malady of underdevelopment: which
we have diagnosed as a stable equilibrium level of per capita income at or
close to subsistence requirements. It is a situation where only a small
percentage, if any, of the economy’s income is directed toward net investment.
The remedy to the malady of countries caught in a Low Equilibrium
Trap, which essentially is a Poverty Trap is faster economic growth and
sectoral change.
The Transformation I propose is to shift Nigeria’s current
agrarian condition to a modern industrialized agriculture-manufacturing sector
which is defined by higher wage rates, higher marginal productivity, and a
demand for more industrial workers. In addition, it will employ a
capital-intensive production process. A key tool is sustainable intensification
(SI) meaning getting higher yields on the same acre of land. Few countries ever
achieved an industrial revolution without modernizing its agricultural and food
system.
The industrial agenda will move the economy into a modern mechanized industrialized agriculture with increasing overall high productivity that raises living standards through incomes expansion. Poverty and hunger should not be considered normal in a continent with 65% of all uncultivated arable land in the world. In the words of the Zambian President at the Food Summit organized by the African Development Bank in Dakar, January 2023, we must wash away the shame of hunger amid abundance. Beyond food security we must process our raw materials and export to earn foreign exchange. All we need is the infrastructure to develop the right ecosystem for companies to thrive in.
*Professor Oyelaran-Oyeyinka is Senior Special Adviser to the President of the AfDB on Industrialisation.
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