Nigeria: What Is The Future Of Our Democracy?

 By Dan Onwukwe

This is where our leaders miss it all: A President does not shape a new and personal vision of his country. He collects it from the scattered hopes of the citizens, past and present. This has guided nations that practice democracy every step of the way. It sustains every elected President. However, the question is: why is it that what has guided other democratic nations, and has sustained their democracies failed in Nigeria, and instead, has produced politics of hate and personal interest? 

The answer partly can be found in the fact that every nation is its own laboratory of democracy. As French political philosopher , Tocqueville said, “democratic men are more apt to complete a number of undertakings in rapidity than to raise lasting monuments of their achievements…; they go after success rather fame”. 

But that does not seem to be the case with Nigerian leaders, including this President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. This is the reason: while, according to Tinubu, becoming President had always been his “lifetime ambition”, he failed to respond to sensed urgencies of the moment. Dream is different from adequate preparation. He dreamed of fame, not  success. Success is measured by policies and actions initiated by a leader.     

 As Doris Keane, Lyndon Johnson(the 36th U.S. President) biographer noted, “political leaders in a democracy are not revolutionaries. The best of them are those who respond wisely to changes and movements already underway. [But] , the worst, the least successful, are those who respond badly or not at all, and those who misunderstand the direction in already visible change”. 

Which category do you think the Tinubu administration falls in? In any case, it will be in his best interest, and that of the people, for the President to perceive the national will and follow the will of the people. History teaches that leaders who  misunderstand the direction that inspires goodwill run aground in the office.  Looking at the situation in Nigeria today, even the most ingenious propaganda will not obscure or erase  the profound and disturbing pains and anguish in the land.

 It throws up intense fear of the future of our democracy. Without a doubt, there’s a steady loss of confidence in the political leadership and governance of Nigeria of today. There’s a great disaffection and disillusionment with politics and our politicians. The most troubling is what Nigerians have been going through in the last 70 days( and counting) under the Tinubu presidency. Optimism has given way to grave pessimism never experienced since the advent of the present democratic dispensation, almost 24 years ago.               

It has suddenly dawned on us, especially the poor, that the day of exaggerated expectations about what government can accomplish may have passed, and unfortunately so. All the same, there is no doubting the fact that if people would take the trouble to vote, as they did on February 25 Presidential and National Assembly elections, and the Governorship/States Assembly elections on March 18, they expected something from the leaders they chose. 

At the minimum, they expected what is possible and doable. First, a concise programme of action that will address the central problems that concern them. These are not necessarily measures that have all the answers, but at least a philosophy and an approach that will give promise of succeeding, policies that will give the citizens a sense of hope, of progress towards meeting their goals. Nigerians have never asked too much of their leaders. It’s about welfare, security, healthcare, jobs, better living conditions. 

Sadly, the opposite has been the case in the last eight years, and counting. To paraphrase former President Goodluck Jonathan’s memoir, “My Transition Hours”, ‘democracy is not just about fulfilling all righteousness by treating people to the ballot box that they bring out only on Election Day”. Democracy, he says,  ‘boils down to legitimacy and ensuring that people have the necessary dividends’. 

Have Nigerians have these dividends? Far from it. The present catchphrase is, “Let the People breathe”. Nigerians are choked by government’s anti-poor policies. Just recently, the Senate President Godswill Akpabio, ridiculously made a heavy weather out of this. He mocked the poor.  Do you blame him? That’s what you get when wick leaders acquire power. Are you surprised at the underwhelming achievement, anti-poor policies of President Tinubu? 

I am not. Remember he told us during the campaigns that he would ‘continue’ from where Muhammadu Buhari stopped. Didn’t you hear him say that? Buhari put a heavy yoke on Nigerians, Tinubu is making it heavier. It’s the ‘Rehoboam treatment’, disguised as ‘Renewed Hope’. Look at it this way: there’s nothing more difficult than a President to claim he has come with Renewed hope, a new order of things, understanding, in his own terms. This approximates to the principle which Machiavelli explained thus, “the reformer has enemies in all those who profit by the new order…and only lukewarm towards those who will profit from the new order…who do not truly believe in anything new until they have had actual experience of it”.                                              

Like Buhari, Tinubu has shown us that he is not the President of all. Didn’t you see the Ministerial nominees list? He has ignored the soaring cost of governance and the need for lean cabinet.  Of the 48 nominees, only five from South East, over 12 from the North West and nine from the South South, about 10 from the South West, and 8 from the North East.  It tells you something. 

You can’t hate my father and befriend my mother. It’s about politics of hate against the South East. Buhari did even far worse. It’s because of the South East overwhelming support for one of their own – Peter Obi.  The President’s broadcast last week, demonstrates how a leader has learnt nothing and forgotten nothing. Identifying the “elite of the elite” that have stolen the nation blind through oil subsidy, and failing to name names, and take action against them, speaks volumes of how unprepared this President is in dealing with corruption. 

The truth is, today many people are finding it difficult to trust anyone in politics. They have also observed with great pain that the legal and political systems favour only the wealthy and the powerful. Is this utter realism a function of the nature of power and the complexity of ambition?  

All that President Tinubu has been able to achieve so far, especially with persuading organised labour to suspend the nationwide protests, reflects his personality. It’s a life in contradiction. In 2012, Tinubu was a vocal voice against subsidy removal during Jonathan’s administration. He also spoke publicly against hike in Value Added Tax(VAT). Convincing Organised Labour to suspend the protests,  was an attempt to reduce the possibility of full-blown conflict.

 He knows he has a firestorm in his presidential plate.  Altogether, our democracy is on trial, and on uncharted territory ahead of the judgement of the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal.  Going forward, this much is vital: Before taking any major decisions, a good leader should, of necessity, gauge the impact of key decisions he makes on public opinion and determine how it will affect the welfare of the people. 

This is an advice:  A leader risks reaching the end point of exhaustion if he neglects the yearnings of the people. Failing to respond swiftly often comes with dizzying consequences, because very often, tempers flare as a result of warnings unheeded. Removal of fuel subsidy without putting palliatives in place, was a utopian vision, not the inevitable direction of a progressive action. Has any lesson been learned? The weeks and months ahead will tell. That will also tell the future and direction of our democracy

*Onwukwe is a commentator on public issues