By Luke Onyekakeyah
The recent announcement by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on the introduction of newly redesigned N200, N500 and N1, 000 banknotes, has political and economic implications. Like a thunderbolt, the move has jolted many people, particularly, politicians who promote money politics. Those who have amassed naira and dollar waiting for the forthcoming elections are biting their fingers.
The move is a masterstroke against corrupt politicians, who have hoarded huge sums of money for vote buying during the 2023 general elections. By redesigning the naira and releasing it barely a month to the elections, the CBN may have played the trump card to frustrate all the permutations by politicians who banked on the hoarded naira. That way, the CBN may have contributed to the country having a more credible election in 2023.
But the economic fallout is more far-reaching. The dramatic
intervention in the fortunes of the buffeted and battered naira may serve as
the last straw that breaks the camel’s back. Before now, the CBN had applied
several interventionist measures on the naira in an attempt to boost the
currency’s strength but all to no avail.
The
measures include implementing floating exchange rates, moving away from pegged
rates, monetary policy that allows for trading with the market, government
policies to attract foreign investment, and the country purchasing its own
currency. But the naira still remains on a free-fall.
To keep the pegged foreign exchange rate stable, the
government must hold large reserves of the currency to which its currency is
pegged to control changes in supply and demand.
Unfortunately, the foreign reserves, which gives the CBN the power
to defend the naira, reportedly declined by 5.47 percent to $38.28
billion on September 29, 2022 from $40.50 billion at the end of last year.
The latest intervention would likely make no difference. Before it
is launched, it has pushed the naira to N850/$ in the black market. There is
fear that if nothing is done to halt the speedy downward spinning, the naira would
in a matter of weeks cross the N1000 bar to the dollar and the crisis would
escalate from there. That would spell more crisis for the economy.
The reasons for the collapse of the naira include improper
valuations or pegging of the naira, chronic low growth and inflation. Currency
collapses are caused by a lack of faith in the stability or usefulness of
money—either as a way to store value or as a medium of exchange. A situation
where people purchase and hoard dollar in preference to the naira is injurious
to naira. People have more faith in the dollar than in the naira.
The
question as to whether it is good to have a strong currency is pertinent. There
are both pros and cons to having a strong currency. Pundits say it depends on
the country’s trade balance. Net importers like Nigeria will prefer to keep
their currency strong, since it will make their imports cheaper, while net
exporters like Japan tend to benefit from a weaker local currency, as it makes
their exports more profitable.
Again, it depends on the productive capacity of the economy. I
have said in this column before that no amount of financial engineering or
tinkering would strengthen the naira outside a buoyant economy that is powered
by industrial and agricultural productivity. Without a strong productive base
like in the 60, 70s and 80s, there would be no back-bone for the naira, and as
such it would continue to fall with nothing to wedge it.
It is unfortunate that rather than put heads together to come up
with a proactive strategy to revamp the economy as a basis for revamping the
naira, the economic planners appear to concentrate on dishing out policies that
provide ad-hoc remedy to the naira predicament. I must appreciate the fact that
the country is in a quasi state of war that has made life unbearable to the
people due to the ravaging state of insecurity. Consequently, there can be no
stable and sustainable economic plan that would work. We need stability for
economic plans to work.
For instance, the CBN’s Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP), was
designed to provide loans (in kind and cash) to smallholder farmers to boost
agricultural production, create jobs, reduce food import bill and thereby
create economic linkages between smallholder farmers and processors with a view
to increasing agricultural output and ensuring food price stability. That is a
laudable intervention that has the capacity to leverage the economy through
sponsored agricultural productivity.
But
the programme has since run into troubled waters, for no sooner was the
programme launched and farmers took the loans and planted crops than bandits,
herdsmen and terrorists operating in the North-west and North-east launched
attacks on the helpless farmers and destroyed crops, leaving the farmers
frustrated with huge loses. The result is that many of the farmers could no
longer repay their loans and that has left the programme in quandary. The
expected economic benefits that would have been derived from the progrmme have
gone down the drain.
One way to make the naira strong is through increasing terms of
trade in which there is greater demand for the Nigeria’s exports. This, in
turn would result in increasing revenues from exports, which would boost the
demand for the naira and an increase in the currency’s value. Unfortunately,
nothing is being exported except what is left of the crude oil that is being
stolen. No agricultural or industrial products are exported and as such the
naira can’t be strong no matter what.
The persistent free-fall of the naira is an indication that none
of the interventions being applied has worked. Otherwise, there would have been
some respite for the beleaguered naira, even minimally. The latest move is
being interpreted by pundits to mark the beginning of a broader currency census
and the mop up of black money. But are these the main problems facing the
naira?
Nigeria is an import dependent economy, which requires foreign
exchange availability to function. While there is nothing wrong in trying to
retune the economy to be inward-looking, the feat cannot be accomplished
overnight by executive fiat. A strategic return to agricultural and industrial
productivity is the only solution to the naira mess. The naira should be
supported with foreign exchange earned through export of industrial and agricultural
goods. The current import dependent economy is suicidal.
Dr. Onyekakeyah is a commentator on public issues
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