2023: Between Atiku, Tinubu And Obi

 By Charles Okoh

For Nigeria, the year 2023 is just not another year. It is a year that will determine the fate of the nation. The campaigns by political parties would not commence until September 28, 2022 as provided by Sec. 94(1) of the Electoral Act 2022. But, the tension around the election has reached boiling point. What happens to this nation going forward would be determined by the choice we make in 2023.

*Obi, Tinubu, Atiku 

There are several reasons why 2023 could make or mar Nigeria. One of the biggest reasons why Nigeria and Nigerians must get it right is that for the past seven years we have been living the reality and facing the pangs that come with our wrong choice of President Muhammadu Buhari. In seven short years, Buhari has squandered the enormous goodwill he had coming to that office. That more than anything else, is the reason there is so much tension in the land. It is the reason Nigeria has remained on the edge of a precipice.

As the campaigns commence, it is imperative on all political parties and candidates to focus on issue-based campaigns. This way we can ensure that the polity is not unnecessarily heated up and it will also afford us the opportunity to assess the competencies and preparedness of those who seek to rule us in order to ensure transparent elections in which only the votes cast by citizens determine the winner. Sentiments, emotions and selfishness must take the backstage in making that vital decision.

What is important for the contestants as well as the electoral body to note is that the increasing interests of Nigerians in next year’s election is because for the first time they are having enough reason to believe that the process would reflect the wishes of the people. We have said this severally in the past, that the major reason for political apathy, is because many Nigerians, especially the tech-savvy youths had considered it a waste of time to participate in an exercise whose outcomes are already predetermined.

So, the least that these Nigerians would expect from the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) is to continue to boost the confidence of the people in the process so that before long we can take our rightful place in the comity of nations.

Also, the role of the judiciary in elections is vital and our ligitants and the courts must also be prepared to rise above the shenanigans and prebendalism that characterise the nation’s polity.

We must continue to learn from smaller African nations who now lead the way on how nations are governed and how politics ought to be practised.

The Kenyan Supreme Court on Monday, September 5, dismissed the petitions challenging the result of the August 9 election which saw William Ruto, incumbent vice president of Kenya, emerge as the president-elect.

This is in spite of the fact that he is not the anointed son of President Uhuru Kenyatta, the incumbent president. The ruling came three days after arguments were heard from lawyers representing the two main candidates and rival camps of election commissioners.

For Kenya, it’s a closed case. It is now time for real governance and Ruto will be free of any form of distraction and encumbrances that characterise Africa’s politics of bitterness and rancor, and the nation would be better for it. In Nigeria, the reverse is the case. Disputes are dragged and governance held in abeyance while some judges make a killing of desperate politicians who are prepared to go to any length to secure judgement in their favour.

From all indications, so far, the race will be fought between former vice President Atiku Abubakar, former governor of Lagos, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed and the new kid on the block, Labour Party’s Peter Obi. This is not to disparage the other contestants like Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), African Democratic Congress’s Dumebi Kachikwu, or Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress (AAC), but given the pulse and feelers on the streets, it will require a major upset for any of these to upstage the PDP, APC and LP candidates.

For Atiku Abubakar, perhaps his attempt in 2019 might have been his best opportunity to clinch his much coveted diadem. He probably had the contest less complicated than it is now because Buhari’s abysmal performance was such that Nigerians clearly wanted him out. But for some strange reasons, INEC returned the non-performing and rejected President Buhari to continue his misgovernance. Again, the agitations then were that because Atiku was not only seen as better-qualified but was actually believed to have won the election.

However, four years later, the scenario might not be the same as Atiku’s chances are not as huge as it was four years ago. First, the PDP itself is divided against itself, and believe it or not, that division will lead them to the election. The choice of Atiku from Adamawa after eight years of Buhari is seen by a lot of people not only in the south, but as well as other regions as an attempt to deprive the south of its opportunity to produce the next president. At least the southern governors’ forum had jointly called for a power shift to the south.

Atiku would need a lot of work to convince Nigerians why after close to eight years of escalating insecurity especially given the fact that many believe that the president has continued to condone killer herders and so-called bandits and their sympathisers in the federal government. Not a few people believe that when push comes to shove Atiku might as well toe that same line with Buhari in not wanting to hunt or clampdown on these marauders, especially those of the Fulani stock. So, can Atiku, given the chance, fight insecurity without fear or favour or would he just turn a blind eye when it concerns his kith and kin? This position is further reinforced by the unfortunate incident around the death of Deborah Samuel and the aftermath.

Also, can Atiku convince Nigerians why they will have to give PDP another chance after its lackluster 16 years’ reign? Only time will tell.

In the case of Asiwaju Tinubu, his greatest obstacle would also be that he would have to suffer the consequences of Buhari’s uninspiring reign. Apart from being one of those who birthed the Buhari regime he was also regarded as the biggest driver of that project after Buhari. But for his alliance with Buhari it would have been impossible for Buhari to become President.

Asiwaju has also found himself in a catch-22 situation where he has to choose between distancing himself from the Buhari misadventure and risk not getting Buhari’s support. It must also be noted that it was not the original plan of the presidency to give the party’s ticket to the former Lagos governor. And if the antecedents of the northern oligarchy is anything to take into considerations, it would not be a surprise that the Goodluck Jonathan treatment might as well be served Tinubu, where because of their unquenching thirst for power they might remain in APC but surreptitiously support Atiku.

If you believe Abdullahi Adamu, the APC chairman, whose open preference for Ahmed Lawan as APC candidate to succeed Buhari, would back Tinubu against Atiku, then you still have a lot to learn about the politics of the northern oligarchy. 

So, when Tinubu, in order not to offend the status quo, says he would continue with the Buhari legacies, is he really talking about the legacy of prioritising the interest of the people of Niger Republic over that of Nigerians especially those of the south east extraction? Or would Tinubu be telling Nigerians that the generous spread of insecurity across the country was what they set out to achieve when they boasted that he would wipe out insecurity in no time in 2015? Or is Tinubu in agreement with Buhari’s politics of religious favouritism, ethnicity and tribalism? 

Will Tinubu tell the nation that the total confusion around governance, where everybody seems to be lord unto himself and where nobody seems answerable to anybody would be worthy of emulation. Will Tinubu tell Nigerians that the unprecedented level of corruption under the watch of Buhari where a public servant can be charged with stealing N109 billion under the watch of a government that touted the fight against corruption as one of the tripods upon which its campaigns were hinged on? Or is Tinubu proud of the poor living conditions of Nigerians and the hunger ravaging the nation? Is Tinubu proud that the Naira under the APC has continued its free fall and is projected to hit an all time low of a dollar to one thousand naira by end of 2022?

As for Peter Obi of the Labour Party this might just be the case of a man who, against all expectations, has found himself where he never dreamt of until as recently as a few months ago. His bold decision to quit the PDP when he did and teaming up to form what has come to be termed as third force might just serve as a breath of fresh air from the old order.

Can Obi really claim not to belong to the old order; I do not think so, because apart from being a former governor of Anambra State, he was also the running mate of Atiku in 2019. However, because his message has continued to resonate with the youths and many others who believe that it was time the nation tried something else other than the PDP and APC. Those who claim that Obi’s presence might just be only on the social media would be doing themselves a great disservice if they are not thinking of ways of beating him to his game, because they might not be prepared to take the surprise that would confront them.

How far Obi can go is left to be seen, but what is without debate is that Obi’s candidacy has, out of the blue, brought a genuine third force as a contender, come 2023. Those who dismiss the Obi option as not serious had better wake up to the reality that faces them. How Obi will galvanize these increasing sympathy he enjoys across the nation is left to be seen, but 2023 is still a long way to go, and as they say in politics, a day is a long time and anything can happen.

*Ohoh is a commentator on public issues