By Mukesh Kapila
Somalia
is on the brink of catastrophe. A recent assessment suggests that 7.7 million
Somalis need emergency aid right now, a similar number to those affected by the
Ethiopian famine in 1984, one of the worst humanitarian disasters in history.
About one million people died then.
The warnings have been coming for some time.
The
immediate trigger for the likely famine is three successive years of failed
rains leading to the worst drought in the Horn of Africa for four decades.
Underlying that are rising temperatures from climate change. Compounding
factors include longstanding political and social fractures, with decades of
conflict and poor governance.
Somalia is also strongly affected by the Ukraine-Russia war . It gets 90% of its wheat from that region which makes up two-thirds of the Somalian diet. The prices of cooking oil, beans, rice and sugar have also doubled from the conflict's secondary consequences: higher costs for fuel, transport and agricultural inputs like fertiliser.
Humanitarian
agencies have appealed to donors for assistance. The UN has asked for US$1.46
billion. The International Red Cross Red Crescent requires a further US$14.2
million. This is much more than what Somalia's received so far. By mid-2022,
the UN appeal for Somalia had received US$280 million. With another US$208
million provided outside the appeal, Somalia has garnered overall a shade under
US$0.5 billion in humanitarian funding.
As a
humanitarian expert, I urge the international community not to be complacent.
Extra humanitarian aid is vital to save lives and relieve suffering. The Somali
government doesn't have the capacity to support affected communities and
personal coping strategies will be overwhelmed.
World's
hungriest nation
Somalia
has faced several food crises. The largest was in 1992 . It killed 300,000
people but this was due mostly to sectarian politics that used food as a weapon
of war. In the famine between 2010 and 2012 , 260,000 people perished from
severe drought.
Somalia's
population has more than doubled since the 1990s to reach 16 million now. A
global methodology – estimating the severity of food crises based on measures
of hunger, malnutrition and mortality – indicates that of the 7.7 million
Somalis needing humanitarian support, at least four million are in need of
urgent food assistance. Of these, one million are already in pre-famine
emergency, making this potentially the worst crisis in Somalia's recent
history.
Even
without famine, Somalia is the world's hungriest nation, as defined by the
Global Hunger Index . This is both a cause and a consequence of being the
world's second poorest nation . In 2020, the per capita gross national income (GNI ) was US$420 compared to Ethiopia's US$890 or Kenya's US$1840.
Somalia
is in this situation due to a combination of its long history of political
instability, conflict, poor food production and now, progressive environmental
shocks with weather extremes.
Somalis
struggle to get enough to eat – 2,100 daily calories – and are forced to go for
cheaper, energy-dense staples such as maize, sorghum, rice and wheat, with some
oil. There is little fruit, vegetable, and meat consumption. This nutritionally
poor diet sets the average household back by about US$7 a day, a fortune in a
nation where two-thirds of the population survive on less than US$1.90 a day,
the global extreme poverty line .
Even
under usual circumstances, a fifth of Somali children are severely or
moderately malnourished and more than 10% don't reach their fifth birthday. If
famine strikes, their fate will be dire.
Overwhelmed
coping strategies
Somalia's
highly aid-dependent economy and limited institutional capacities have never
been able to care fully for citizens, despite impressive development plans .
And so, Somalis have had to become resourceful and resilient through their own
coping strategies.
These
include traditional mutual-help social protection mechanisms. And, most
significantly, Somalis have historically coped through moving. A nomadic
lifestyle meant a third of the population could shift when needed.
But an
increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts have forced communities to
move to more urban settlements. Condemned to survive in over-stretched camps
where their basic needs aren't met.
Many
Somalis move further afield. An estimated two million Somalis seek
opportunities outside their homeland. Their remittances home stand at about
US$1.4 billion annually, equating to about 25% of Somalia's GDP and outpacing
foreign aid and investment. Pre-pandemic, at least a fifth of Somali households
relied on some money coming from abroad.
During
the pandemic, remittances tumbled by two-thirds but are now recovering . The
greater threat to this lifeline for desperate families and communities is
anti-terrorist money laundering restrictions imposed by Western countries in
the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks . These make it more difficult and expensive
to receive funds, and even humanitarian agencies have struggled in consequence.
Because
the drought is so widespread, and affects so many, these precarious coping
strategies are now under extreme pressure as famine threatens.
Humanitarian
response and prospects
Humanitarian
aid is crucial.
Somalia
usually gets about a billion dollars annually for all types of humanitarian
assistance. Donors – principally the EU, UK, and US – who helped Somalia over
decades have institutionalised their support to the point that it is
more-or-less part of their routine aid budgets, including a gentle upward trend
over recent years.
While
there are concerns that numerous other crises – including additional demands
from climate shocks, COVID recovery, and Ukraine war – will stretch donor
budgets, Somalia hopes that it is less likely to suffer aid cuts.
That is
because of a progressive trend among donors to focus their official assistance
on fewer, poorer nations and to skew this towards greater humanitarian-type
interventions at a time that disasters and conflicts are extracting greater
human costs. Even here, donors prioritise contributions on geo-political
rationales including risks to themselves arising from crisis and instability
elsewhere.
Tragically
for Somalia, it ticks all the criteria for being a priority aid recipient as it
is among the world's poorest and most crisis-prone countries. Also, by its location
in a geo-politically sensitive geography, the instability of which worries rich
Northern nations, because of the potential exportation of terrorism and
migrants.
But
these are no grounds for complacency. Humanitarian aid has never been enough to
meet all life-saving needs. And currently, the gap between the aid that Somalia
is likely to get and its sharply increased needs from the confluence of so many
adverse factors, will get higher. That means increased suffering –- and greater
malnourishment and mortality – in the months to come.
There
are no easy solutions. But disastrous impacts can be better mitigated if aid
strategies maximise their effectiveness and efficiency through more
decentralised and localised approaches that bolster local coping capacities,
and not just dump relief on Somalia.
It is
also true that foreign aid –- at whatever level –- will not solve Somalia's
underlying and recurring problems. Only political and social change within
Somalia can do that, whenever their people and leaders are ready and
sufficiently organised and coherent to do so.
*Mukesh Kapila does not
work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or
organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no
relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
*Mukesh Kapila, Professor Emeritus in Global Health & Humanitarian Affairs, University of Manchester
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