As 2019 elections draw closer, activities informed by future
projections, calculations and manipulations keep manifesting in different areas
with different people at different times. Take for a striking example of what
is going on in Imo state. It is now breeding many interests and actors within
and outside South East geopolitical zone under the APC. In other flash points
of APC crisis of Ondo, Ogun, Rivers and Zamfara states, they still bear the
same fingers except Zamfara and Rivers states.
Former governor of Lagos Lagos
In the heat of the moment when the
president’s health was at its worst, power blocks within APC intensified their
strategic game plans. The northern cabals made sure that Tinubu shed some
political weights and giving wide berth from the villa. They recruited many
former loyalists of Tinubu who were disenchanted and tired of his undue
dominance of south west politics. Fashola and Fayemi were the arrow heads of
this group, propped up by northern cabals to cut Tinubu to size. It was even
believed in some quarters that Ambode at a point started playing double game as
he wasn’t sure how things would turn out if the president didn’t make it and
that remained the sin that Tinubu axed him recently. Gov. Akeredolu of Ondo
state on the other hand at the time had drawn a parallel political line with
Tinubu and Gov. Ibikunle Amosun of Ogun state was closer to Buhari than Tinubu
and may not be difficult to convert him against Tinubu. Gov. Fayose of Ekiti
was on one hand at the time spiting fire and heating up the south west
politics. Governor Ajimobi of Oyo state was silently building his own political
line up by dismantling the political influence of Olubadan, similar to what
Tinubu did to Afenifere. It was only Gov. Rauf Aregbesola of Osun state,
Tinubu’s real state of origin that remained totally loyal to him.
Tinubu looking at the heavy political
battles before him, recoiled into reclusion at his Bourdillon mansion. Like or
hate Tinubu, he understands two very important things in politic, timing and
resources. He knew the administration was yet to hit the middle of its mandate
and open fight with those controlling power in absence of the president could
destroy him. He maintained his distance and that gave him time to decide his
next cause of actions when the time comes. There is nothing as dangerous as
allowing a calculative and manipulative man time to think. He was able to
decide those that must be axed, those to be weaned of their states and those to
be recruited. The whole political calculations changed immediately President
Buhari made it out of the hospital strong enough to appear in many government
functions at a row. Tinubu’s quietness and wordless during the power rumble
paid off. There is no words or actions from his side during Mr.
President’s absence that anybody would point to as evidence of his attempt to
pull rug off Mr. President.
As the elections draw even closer,
opposition from both South East and South-South grew, Fulani herdsmen
terrorists on the other hand kept their pogrom activity in middle belt
blazingly hot and daring as days pass by. The economy kept nose diving and
opposition from many northern elites the president’s cabals tactically kept out
of power was on the increase. The president had no choice than to bring Tinubu
back to the table by first going on presidential trip with him. There is never
a better time to be closer to the president than then. The need for his support
by the President presented Tinubu with the opportunity to execute his drawn up
battle plans.
The first on his axe list was the party Chairman
Mr. John Odigie-Oyegun who himself was a former governor of Edo State Edo
state as chairman of the party. The likes of Rochas openly supported him and
possibly not knowing that Tinubu had arrangement with the man his enemies refer
to as ‘the tailor’. Tinubu’s axe list continue to churn out names from its
pages. Party primaries came and Gov. Ambode was shocked beyond belief to find
out his name was on the list. He tried to plead but met with deaf ear, he
boasted with no effect, he went for Tinubu’s choice but met with ‘NEPA bill’
kind of party members. In the end, he threw in the towel and accepted his fate.
Rochas wanted his son in-law to succeed him
while Gov. Amosun of Ogun state wanted a representative member Akinlade to
succeed him while both men proceed to senate to rest. Amosun was counting on
his long time relationship with president Buhari to be picked as his successor
in 2023 if the party decides to zone it to South West. Okorocha also was
preparing to clinch same ticket in 2023 if it is zoned to south east and no
better way to be prepared for that than a continued access to state coffers
thus the need for man Friday as successor. Tinubu understands that calculation
having been using it. He surrogated his battle axe to these states through
Oshiomhole. However, the annoying part of it especially to Rochas was the way
Oshiomhole played him. He would give him assurances to high heavens and Rochas
would run down to Imo state boasting to whoever wants to hear that nothing
would stop him and that this battle will prove who is a male man between him
and Uzodimma. Oshiomhole kept biting and breezing Rochas until the last
minutes. Gov. Amosun suffered the same fate as well as Akeredolu of Ondo state
even though his was minimal. Tinubu undermined all these governors using
Oshiomole, all for 2023 positioning but he should remember that if eventually Buhari
wins, his second term will not take any political prisoner. He will go for the
jugular as there will be no political hold on him then.
*Obi Ebuka Onochie is a Political Analyst (Obiebuka360@gmail.com)
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