By Ray Ekpu
Quite a number of
knowledgeable people have commented favourably on the 2018 budget recently
presented by President Muhammadu Buhari to the National Assembly. In particular
they are enthused by the size of the budget, N8.612 trillion, which is 30% over
and above the 2017 budget. But the thrill lies more in the fact that N2.43
trillion will be devoted to capital expenditure. This is about 30.8% of the
budget, a strong indication that the government is showing an equally strong
commitment to the development of critical infrastructure.
After that the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, embarked on a whirlwind tour of the Niger Delta states. At each stop he made some very interesting remarks which were sweet music in the ears of the Niger Delta people. First, he admitted that Niger Delta was badly treated and that the level of poverty in the region was unpardonable. He threatened to reverse the situation. But the Niger Delta people had heard these sweet nothings many times before and wondered whether there would be a definite difference this time. It seemed like the kind of words that most men use when wooing a potential lover.
But not much has changed since the first few words of hope were uttered by
Osinbajo. It can, however, be explained that the delay in implementing some of
the promises may be traced to Buhari’s three month absence for medical
treatment abroad. Some of the projects also need time for planning and
execution as they cannot be implemented with a snap of the finger. The Avengers
who called off the ceasefire in the first week of this month have been prevailed
upon not to resume hostilities yet. They have announced a three-month extension
of ceasefire. Three months is not a long time but it offers the Federal
Government a window of opportunity for serious and sincere engagement with the
Niger Delta people on the issues that their leaders raised on November 1.
The Niger Delta has a multiplicity of groups
claiming to speak for the region. However, PANDEF made up of eminent and
respectable Niger Deltans has emerged as the most serious-minded and credible group
so far with which the Federal Government can negotiate. People like the Niger
Delta Avengers who believe in the force of their AK 47s for resolving the Niger
Delta conundrum are an important factor in the equation. Without the bravado of
these arms wielding young men the Niger Delta region would have been sunk by
the oppressive policies of previous governments. The exception is the
government of Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua who had the courage to institute an amnesty
programme which silenced the guns.
The 2018 Federal Budget of Consolidation is
based on certain assumptions (a) a benchmark crude oil price of $45 per barrel.
At present oil price has climbed to $65. This is because since January this
year OPEC and its allies especially the Russian Federation have cut total
production by about 1.8 million barrels per day. This means that the global
daily supply has been reduced by 2%. What will affect the price in the coming
months will be what the Shale oil producers in the United States do. Secondly, oil
price may stay at the present high level if OPEC members who will meet on
November 30 decide to sustain the current production cut.
The second budget assumption is Nigeria ’s oil
production level of 2.3 million barrels per day. This is dicey and depends
largely on the Federal Government’s ability to bring about a sustained period
of peace in the Niger Delta. The ceasefire extension for three months by the
Niger Delta Avengers only guarantees stability for three months. If there is an
outbreak of hostilities and the disruption of oil production then the magic
figure of 2.3 million barrels per day will become a mirage. It is not by the
force of arms that peace can be achieved by the Federal Government. So my
advice is for Buhari to discourage the armed forces personnel from their
current sabre-rattling. What the Avengers and the other militant groups in the
region do is guerrilla warfare, adopting the hit and run tactics. There are
also about 6000
kilometres of oil pipelines in the region which cannot
be effectively policed by our armed forces. Communities where these pipelines
snake through must be respected and treated as co-owners of these national
assets. Their commitment through systematic engagement with the authorities is
the only sure-fire guarantee of peace in the region. The solid minerals project
will suffer a similar fate as our liquid minerals if the Federal Government
fails to acknowledge the importance of the communities where these minerals are
located. Luckily, solid minerals are found in all the 774 local governments in
the 36 states and Abuja .
The oppressive policies of the Federal Government on the oil rich states may
not be enacted in the solid minerals sector since every state has the asset.
The time to begin negotiations with the Niger Delta Avengers and their
representatives is now if the 2.3 million target is to be achieved.
All these optimistic assumptions depend
largely on the government’s ability to redeem the promises it made to the Niger
Delta region. Redemption of some of those promises will restore confidence
between both parties. Fair-minded people will admit that the region has been in
the emergency ward for a long time. If Buhari chooses to perform the needed
surgery on the region he will earn the gratitude of these long suffering people.
* Ray Ekpu, a veteran journalist, is the former Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the defunct Newswatch Communications, publishers of the now rested Newswatch magazine
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