By Ochereome Nnanna
What happened at the Senate on Wednesday, 26th July
2017 infuriated those who have been clamouring for restructuring and true
federalism. But, it elated two other segments of the Nigerian society
which, funny enough, see each other as sworn enemies:
(a)
those who want to maintain the status quo,
(b)
the separatists.
Those who want to maintain the status quo got
what they wanted when the Senate voted 48 to 46 to throw out the proposal for
the devolution of powers to the states. It required 72 votes to alter the
constitution, subject to the verdict of Members of the House of
Representatives. The separatists also rejoiced because, having lost faith in
the possibility of restructuring and devolution of powers, they want complete
separation from Nigeria to establish their own sovereign republic where they
can swim or sink based on their abilities.
The separatists know that the failure of the
vote for restructuring and devolution of powers will vindicate their position.
It will win them more converts in the East and nudge more groups outside the
East to also seek self determination. I would have been surprised if the vote
had turned out differently. Just before that day when the Senate had to vote electronically
to avoid controversy as to where majority of their members stood, Arewa Youth
Forum, AYF) responded to the move towards restructuring by issuing death
threats.
Some newspapers simply captured their threat
with this headline: “Support Restructuring
and Die, Northern Youths Warn Northern Politicians, Leaders”.
A statement signed by an individual I don’t
want to glorify by mentioning his name here said: “Any Northern politician who ever (sic) participate in the
restructuring of this country must pay with his/her life. We are speaking the
minds of the poor suffering Northerners not the rich enjoying Northerners…
restructuring is the last thing that will happen in this country, you
politicians have enjoyed your days so much that you now want to turn Nigeria
upside down against we the younger citizens of Northern extraction…”
The Arewa Youth’s violent threat was not really
necessary; they were preaching to already hardened converts. They were
preaching to those who actually initiated them into the cult of reactionary
conservatism. The Northern political elite, whether they were wearing military
uniform or babanriga as civilian
politicians, have always said no to any attempt to change the political
structure of Nigeria .
To be fair to them, this vexatious political
structure was not created by the North. It was created by the defunct British
colonial masters way back 103 years ago. The North never begged for it. In
fact, most Northern Emirs and the Sultan of that time were very suspicious and
uncomfortable about being lumped with a largely non-Muslim South that already
had a Westernised mindset. But the colonialists gummed the two sides together
for their own interests. They were spending too much from the royal purse to
maintain the huge region as opposed to a more economically-flourishing South.
In fact, the primary reason for the
amalgamation was to use Southern wealth to support the North and reduce its
drain on the Royal British coffers. Forget about Professor Ango Abdullahi’s
lies about the North “sustaining” the South. The second reason was to enable
the colonial masters through the North to maintain their strategic interests in Nigeria long
after the end of their colonial adventure. So, it is not really the fault of
Nigerians that we are fighting one another. We were wired from the start to
fight and hate one another by an outside power which imposed a Northern burden
on the South, using its massive land resources and largely fake population
majority to ensure that there can never be peaceful, democratic change in the
political structure of the country.
In fact, the North, for decades, foot-dragged
about going with the South. It showed with bloody consequences in 1954 when
Southern leaders moved for independence and their Northern counterparts,
cognisant of their educational disadvantages relative to the South, demanded
that it should be postponed till they were ready. Even after the first coup of
1966 when many Northern leaders were killed, the North would have seceded if
they had their way. It was the same ex-colonial power that chided them that
they cannot run away from their own bowl of pepper soup which had been prepared
and set for them. The oil resources of the defunct Eastern Region were just
about to come into the centre-stage of the Nigerian economy.
When the North realised that with its control
of the Army it could become the new colonial master of the resource-wealthy
South, they simply took over the British colonial heritage. They started
insisting on the control of Nigeria ’s
political leadership, as that would guarantee them access to its oil resources.
From that moment, there was no longer any need for leaders to stress themselves
about creating wealth.
All they needed was to wait every month for
proceeds from the oil rents, and share using the political structure that
ensured the North would always get the lion’s share. The Arewa Youths feel
their time has come to inherit this booty, and so, any talk of restructuring to
force them to think and work hard to create wealth before they can “enjoy” is
not acceptable to them. The youths from the East are ready to struggle for
themselves. Those from the West don’t mind it if they have to struggle for
themselves. The people of the Niger Delta, who have been bearing the burden of Nigeria for
50 years, want freedom to control their resources and determine their own
future.
The truth (and tragedy) of the matter is that
it is almost impossible to effect restructuring and devolution of powers under
our democratic dispensation. Only the military can do it, and when it had the
opportunity it merely reinforced its pro-North colonial heritage. The
impediment to restructuring, when it starts, will not be from the North alone.
The laziness among political leadership has become a widespread national
phenomenon.
Even if the Senate had voted for devolution of
powers it could still be stopped at the House of Representatives. For sure,
restructuring and devolution of powers will fail likely in the Houses of
Assembly of most states, including many states in the geopolitical zones where
the clamour for them have been loudest. Recently, Vanguard published a revenue
outlook that is sure to work against restructuring and devolution of powers if
pursued through the constitutionally-prescribed processes. If restructuring and
devolution of powers are carried out today, only six states – Lagos ,
Rivers, Ogun, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom and Delta – will be able to survive over the
foreseeable short term. The first three have relatively high internal revenue
profile, while all the four South-South states are oil-rich.
All the Northern and Southern States except
those aforementioned will collapse unless there is an interim arrangement to
tide them over the shock period. Even the Federal Government might collapse
unless adequate care is taken. To succeed, restructuring and devolution must be
achieved by national consensus. It is the only path to an assured future for Nigeria because
the sole commodity that feeds the current political structure – oil – is
seriously endangered. Acting President Yemi Osinbajo recently spoke
appropriately of an impending “zero oil” era. More oil is being discovered
around the world, while less uses are being found for it.
More non-oil, environmentally-friendly
alternatives are being innovated. In about ten years, what will become of our
monthly revenue sharing routine? There may be nothing to share! The call for
devolution is a call to secure the future of Nigeria as
a united country. Today, it is unpopular. What shall we do when no one will buy
our oil anymore? Arewa youths, what will you “enjoy”?
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