By Isaac Mwangi
More often than not, East Africa finds itself in an unending precarious food security situation. From the evolving political and economic situation, this could soon turn into a major crisis.
All the ingredients are already present. From civil war to corruption and population displacement to climate change, man-made disasters have combined with natural factors to create ideal conditions for a major regional food crisis.
Even in the best of times, East Africa is never far removed from hunger. Poor policies that have removed support previously given to farmers, low producer prices that have discouraged farmers, rural-urban migration in search of better opportunities, the loss of productive land to cities, and a host of other factors have led to a situation where regional countries can hardly feed themselves.
These problems have been compounded by joblessness and rising insecurity. Deadly cattle rustling raids between rival communities within and between countries, made worse by the influx of small and light weapons, have made pastoralism a dangerous occupation among nomadic communities.
The conflicts that afflict the region are likely to be the most important factor behind the unfolding food insecurity. Needless to say, conflicts displace productive populations, move human and other resources from productive endeavours to the war effort, and leave whole farms untended. Existing food stocks are abandoned in haste as civilians flee or looted by marauding troops, while markets and supply chains are disrupted.
Face of Somali Food Crisis (pix:AP)
In South Sudan, which is already one of the worst places for anybody to live on earth in terms human development indicators, a large proportion of the population has been displaced since the current civil war started in December 2013. Despite numerous ceasefire agreements signed by the protagonists led by President Salva Kiir on the one hand and his former vice president Riek Machar on the other, the fighting remains as severe as ever, with serious human rights violations being committed by both sides.
The South Sudanese conflict has led to an estimated two million refugees who have fled to Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda and Kenya. Many others remain trapped in internally displaced camps inside the country, where they still face the constant danger of attacks from rival forces.
This year has also seen the unfolding of the latest crisis in Burundi brought about by President Pierre Nkurunziza's determination to seek a third term in office. The protests, which have included an attempted coup in May, have led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, many of them fleeing across the country's borders into Tanzania, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
In the Horn of Africa, the presence of troops under the banner of the United Nations Mission for Somalia (Amisom) is yet to create any lasting stability. A large part of the country remains under the control of the Al Shabaab militia, which has proved to be a danger to the security of the whole region. Millions of Somalis have remained scattered in refugee camps in the region ever since the fall of the Siad Barre regime in 1991.
Conditions in refugee camps are nothing to write home about. The huge numbers tend to overwhelm the capacity of home countries, destroy the environment, and are often the cause of insecurity and consequent resentment by host communities. While the region may offer token support, this is far insufficient. Food, medical attention, and sanitation are all severe problems that the refugees have to contend with. This is in addition to insecurity in the camps, especially for women, who are regularly sexually abused.
Widespread corruption that is killing industries and consigning millions into poverty, rising poverty and desperation, and weak political leadership all cast a dark cloud on the region's future. The effect on the region will first be felt through hunger. Already, many East Africans are unable to put sufficient food of a balanced diet on the table. There is little reason to believe that this situation will change for the better any time soon.
Still, leaders remain preoccupied with political antics, term-extension manoeuvres, and other moves aimed at self-preservation. When hunger strikes, it will come with many severe consequences, including instability and economic stagnation. The earlier the region awakes to this reality and starts implementing strategies to combat the coming crisis, the better. If not, the shame of our leaders trooping to Western capitals, begging bowl in hand, will forever remain with us.
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