By Colin Freeman
*Fashola
He famously claims to be "just doing his job". But in a land where politicians are known for doing anything but, that alone has been enough to make Babatunde Fashola, boss of the vast Nigerian city of Lagos, a very popular man.
Confounding the image of Nigerian leaders as corrupt and incompetent, the 51-year-old governor has won near-celebrity status for transforming west Africa's biggest city, cleaing up its crime-ridden slums and declaring war on corrupt police and civil servants.
Next month, he will come to London to meet business leaders and Mayor Boris Johnson's officials, wooing investors with talk of how he has spent the last seven years building new transport hubs and gleaming business parks.
Yet arguably his biggest achievement in office took place just last week, and was done without a bulldozer in sight. That was when his country was officially declared free of Ebola, which first spread to Nigeriathree months ago when Patrick Sawyer, an infected Liberian diplomat, flew into Lagos airport.
Health officials had long feared that the outbreak, which has already claimed nearly 5,000 lives elsewhere in west Africa, would reach catastrophic proportions were it to spread through Lagos. One of the largest cities in the world, it is home to an estimated 17 million people, many of them living in sprawling shanty towns that would have become vast reservoirs for infection. To make matters worse, when the outbreak first happened, medics were on strike.
Instead, Mr Fashola turned a looming disaster into a public health and PR triumph. Breaking off from a trip overseas, he took personal charge of the operation to track down and quarantine nearly 1,000 people feared to have been infected since Mr Sawyer's arrival.
Last week, what would have been a formidably complex operation in any country came to a successful end, when the World Health Organisation announced that since Nigeria had had no new cases for six weeks, it was now officially rid of the virus.
"This is a spectacular success story," said Rui Gama Vaz, a WHO spokesman, who prompted an applause when he broke the news at a press conference in Nigeria on Tuesday. "It shows that Ebola can be contained."
PART ONE
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For sure Gov. Fashola has done better than those before him including 1979-83 Gov. Lateef Jakande, and immediate past Governor, the plastic and tin god of Lagos" - Gov. Bola Ahmed Tinubu; 1999-2007.
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All things being equal and considered, Lagos a predecessor to Hong Kong, given that the then Nigeria Governor General Lord Lugard left Lagos to start Hong Kong, is still a slum and a physically depressing state lacking in most factors used to measure a city of nearly 12m people. But given Nigerians quick sense to show appreciation and easily impressed by the little the government does – as if doing them a favor, the praises roll in as if some mountain has been moved. Lagos State, a state less than 400 square miles - that's 20 miles by 20 miles, has no sewer/wastewater system, the city/state does not pump nearly 10m gallons of water daily despite its location on the ocean. The state’s infrastructure measured against most cities its size is far below par.
Lagos may have a GDP of $43b, if one is a believer in the voo-doo accounting Nigeria uses to shore itself up. Assuming the number is real, how come Lagos State budget is less than $3b – {N490b}, and its internally generated revenue is less than 30% of the total budget? Lagos is still like many less endowed states - dependent on Abuja for its subvention.The state’s 2014 budget allocation for poverty alleviation, whatever that means, assuming one is a fan of former Economic Adviser – Mr. Magnus Kpapko – during President Obasanjo first term 1999-2003, is mere N1.366b or an equivalent of $8.3m. Now consider that more than 90% of Lagos state residents are considered dangerously poor, what can $8.3m do? Do the math, physically divide up $8.3m among the poor, it comes to less than a dollar. Why anyone celebrates this misery sum by a Governor not given to substance but show, baffles one. You be the judge. Nigerians are persuaded by volume of money but not its utility and usefulness in addressing their basic needs. The culture of money clouds the right sense to ask probing questions – reason from top to bottom, the world’s most populous black nation is run like a ‘petty cash’ operation.
Lagos State spends almost half of its budget on recurrent expenses; a bloated and unduly enlarged state bureaucracy that does nothing except to extort and torment residents. If Gov. Fashola were a reasoning and seasoned good administrator deploying the tools of public finance models for judicious use of state resources, he should strive to keep recurrent expenditure at less than 35%, with a Rainy Day Account requirements written into law of say 3% of annual budget as set aside. But as it is, Lagos does not have $1b in its reserve given the combined budget since 1999. It is a Pay-As-You-Go budget system relying and depending on windfalls and cash. And when no item in the budget goes unfunded, it is scrapped. A Fair Weather budgeting system.
Surprisingly, the 2014 budget is less than 2013 budget by 3.5%, and one wonders how the shortfall is accommodated - by borrowing or using reserve fund as cushion? If lagos state budget of 2014 is less than 2013 budget, how does that compare Nigeria Finance Madam Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s sermons on the mountain on how Nigeria is doing? Isn’t Lagos in Nigeria, and its mega city? Lagos should be the benchmark for Nigeria pulse on the economy and its purse ought to reflect what the nation is doing. As goes Lagos, so goes Nigeria. Go figure. When the numbers are massaged, it betrays and conflicts the propaganda on Nigeria Rising and being the largest economy in Africa. May be so, but like US Missouri – Show Me State – ‘Show Us The Money’.
E E OKPA
Dallas, Texas
PART TWO
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Gov. Fashola does not understand how to use financing tools and legislative mandates to stretch public resources. He is a flowery Governor who when he wants to appear credible throws in SAN designation as if having that makes one knowledgeable. SAN is "Senseless Advocates of Nigeria", and as a governor, why does he need to append any other professional or traditional title to a prestigious one? It shows the madness in Nigeria even when they try hard to look credible.
Were Lagos to run properly given its undue advantage as the heart throb of Nigeria, its budget should be accounting for more than 60% coming from internal sources. The state's budget for education is $312m and $132m for health. For 12m people, that is really no money to address the mounting and pressing needs. Note, Lagos state covers only less than 400 square miles, so by its size – physically speaking, it has a comparative advantage such that properly deployed resources will get bigger bang.
But in Nigeria where half measures are celebrated, it is no wonder no one is critical of the leadership. Instead the dance in the square takes over as praises are showered. No doubt Gov. Fashola is the best of 'airy' governors that run amok in Nigeria. But he is Governor of Lagos, a city/state that has existed for more than 100 years. Neither Gov. Fashola nor anyone before or after him used effective public financing and budgetary tools to measure how well they are doing.
Municipal financing indicates that out of every $1b budget, there is a redundancy, waste and load factor of 15%, meaning $150m is considered wasted. This is the case in developed nations. In Nigeria, where waste factor runs higher because of procurement policies that awards contracts for the money and not the project, waste factor in Nigeria is about 75%. As a result, the expected benefit is about 25% Nigerians get out of public resources. It is already a telling indicator when a state spends nearly half of its budget on recurrent expenditures.
On public safety, since the role is reserved for Nigeria Police, it is hard to challenge a state government on crime stats and type of crimes committed. Because Nigeria Police is seriously handicapped with resources and some states provide nominal support, one is conflicted as to who to give credit on crime reduction. But one thing is certain, were Gov. Fashola asked to give breakdown on crime stats, I cam very confident he will not understand the relevance of the question, and therefore, will not give appropriate answer except to defy saying it is Nigeria Police responsibility.
E E OKPA
Dallas, Texas
PART THREE
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Although Gov. Fashola has exceeded his own imagination, coupled with his limited scope capacity, generous and naive Nigerians/Lagosians are quick to be impressed by him delivering '2-by-4 projects. It will take uninterrupted and aggressive programs, policies and years devoid of pettiness and personality politics for Lagos to achieve an ‘Average’ or solid ‘C’ grade. Let's look to 25 years from now before Lagos can be considered Average. If Gov. Fashola is to be celebrated, it should be based on policies and programs set now which will keep Lagos moving forward after him. If not, it will be the quicksand success stories Nigerians enjoy only for them to come back way behind where they started.
Lagos may be the best in Nigeria, her local champion, but we know local champions often do not make the international cut. In ranking cities with Lagos type of demographic, Lagos is dead last. And given Nigerians sense that no one should say its ‘mama's soup is not sour, even when it stinks, the malfeasance and maladministration are endless.
Until Nigerians/Lagosians become very critical of their leadership – demanding more and pushing the envelope, the half measures provided and politicians like former Gov. Tinubu considered a ‘super star’ will keep doing their nonsense and squandering the opportunity for their state and the hapless 165m Nigerians held captive by errant leadership that President Obama, recently called a ‘basket'.
Just my 2 kobo.
E E OKPA
Dallas, Texas