Nigeria:The Grim Statistics

By Ray Ekpu  

The figures are grim. Inflation 17.1 per cent; Gross Domestic Product 2.06 per cent; unemployment/underemployment 26.06 million; crude oil price, less than $50 per barrel; oil production declined from 2.11 million barrels per day by the end of the second quarter of 2016 to 1.69 mbpd. These are figures produced by the National Bureau of Statistics which indicate that Nigeria’s economy is in a recession.

*Buhari

The Minister of Finance, Kemi Adeosun, put the situation quite grimly but frankly: “It’s the worst possible time for us. Are we confused? Absolutely not. How are we going to get ourselves out of this recession? One, we must make sure that we diversify our economy. There are too many of us to keep on relying on oil.”

She is not saying anything that nobody has said before. All of Nigeria’s leaders since the Shehu Shagari era have parroted this diversification line but how much of it has been done? Pretty little. One of the problems of Nigeria’s leadership is “a short attention span.” When there is some calamity in the oil industry and we cannot engage in full production we talk about diversification. When the price of crude goes south we talk about diversification. When the militants go crazy and blow up oil infrastructure we remember diversification. As soon as the problem recedes, the talk of diversification goes away too. I am almost certain that if by some stroke of luck the price of oil goes up and the guns fall silent in the Niger Delta tomorrow, diversification as a policy will disappear from the government’s radar.

But first let’s interrogate the statistics. The facts behind the figures that tell us that our economy has slipped into a recession are even more grim. They are more grim because while statistics are just cold blooded figures, the facts deal with live human beings and their condition as they negotiate life’s treacherous bends.

Kerosene, the poor man’s cooking liquid, now sells for N300 a litre if you can find it. Many men and women are crawling back to their old, reliable friend: firewood. A depletion of the forest is an environmental hazard that can contribute significantly to climate change. Diesel, the rich man’s manufacturing liquid, the most effective power source in the absence of power from the official source now costs N220 per litre. The result? Low production, closures and layoffs.

Now airlines are staying more on the ground than in the air because they cannot get aircraft fuel which some smart fellows are now selling as kerosene. This is compounding the woes of the flying machines. The airlines are now raising their fares astronomically to make ends meet. At the last count there were two casualties, Aero Contractors and First Nation. Both airlines have been grounded by the force of impecuniosity because all along they have been flying at a low altitude financially.

The prices of goods including foodstuff have gone up since the price of petrol was upped. Most people are making adjustments in their eating habits either by patronising “food is ready” or “mama put” eating outlets or resorting to a 0 – 1 – 0 arrangement, that is one meal a day. This lifestyle change is not restricted to eating habits. In the area of housing, a lot of young people are moving from flats to face-me-I-face-you shanties or engaging in flat sharing. Those who have cars are involved in car pooling or are taking a ride in BRT buses in Lagos which they had hitherto scorned. But there are adjustments that are difficult to make. One area is health. Those who cannot afford hospital bills are either patronising petty medicine sellers who may be selling fake drugs or they are beating their way to the babalawo or the Pentecostal churches. Neither the babalawo nor a spiritual church is a hospital. The bottom line is that the health of many of our country men and women is gradually being put in peril.