Dangote Refinery Is Here; Why Are We Unhappy?

 By Dele Sobowale

“I am beginning to wonder how many fools it takes to make the term ‘My Fellow Citizens’” -Honore de Balzac, 1799-1850, in LOST ILLUSIONS

You were probably one of those who eagerly awaited the completion of the Dangote Refinery while labouring under the illusion that it will crash the price of fuel nationwide. Welcome to the unpleasant reality. Underlying that self-deception was the un-stated but implied assumption that Alhaji Dangote was embarking on a venture designed to free Nigeria from fuel importation. Well, “when you assume, you make an ass of you and me.”

Gullible Nigerians, especially many media commentators, had committed the blunder of forgetting that Dangote is a businessman caught in a global race for position among the world’s richest people. He went into refinery primarily to make as much money as he can; and stopping fuel importation is a distant second objective – except that securing a monopoly of the domestic fuel supply would help achieve the ambition.

No Food, No Fuel, No Power, No Forex, No Hope

 By Dele Sobowale

“An army marches on its stomach.” 

— Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821; Vanguard Book of Quotations, p. 14, available online

Right now several millions of Nigerians’ stomachs are empty; and movement has virtually stopped. Unfortunately, it is not only the scarcity of food and high prices which are slowing us down, scarcity of all the things which make life worth living in the new millennium imperil us.

Fuel is scarce; and will remain so indefinitely. The Minister of Power is powerless and can seldom supply beyond 4,000MW per day. The Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, after the initial attempt to force down exchange rate, is now tired and bewildered.

Nigeria’s Food Crisis Gets Worse, FG Confused

 By Dele Sobowale

“Drought: Kogi Govt; farmers seek divine intervention.”

“Despite harvest, food prices remain high in Taraba.”

“Food crisis may worsen as flood hits 10 states.”

“SEMA seeks govt help as drought dry up crops in four states.”

“Why grains importation won’t happen soon, by stakeholders.”

Like a sudden heavy downpour and thunderstorm, destroying everything, the trope of bad news published on Monday, August 9, 2024, by newspapers, paint a grimmer picture of Nigeria’s imminent food prices this year.

Fix Food First And Fast Or Forget It

 By Dele Sobowale

“There are people in the world, so hungry, that God cannot appear to them except in form of bread” – Mahatma Gandhi, 1869-1948

The great Indian leader and liberator made that remark before he was assassinated in 1948 at a time when his country, now divided into at least three nations, suffered from food scarcity worse than Nigeria is experiencing now. Certainly, it can also be said that there are millions of people in Nigeria today, so hungry that God cannot appear to them except either as a loaf of bread or a bowl of cooked rice. 

I was only four years old in 1948. So, I had to interview those far older than me to know how the food situation was like at the time – in addition to historical research. Surprisingly, Nigeria was then a net exporter of food at a time when almost 99 per cent of Nigerians were illiterates; when the University of Ibadan was just opening its doors to students.

Dangote Refinery, Victim Of Nigerian Factor

 By Dele Sobowale

A lot of media people have been talking to Alhaji Aliko Dangote lately; more would give an arm to be able to reach him – all because of the refinery which was advertised as the answer to our perpetual fuel problems. Laymen and women have developed the notion that, when it starts supplying fuel, prices would crash to pre-subsidy removal levels – among other expectations. More unsolicited write-ups have been sent to me by strangers and friends, alike, about Dangote himself and his refinery than I have ever received in a long time.

*Dangote 

Suddenly, the Dangote Refinery, apart from pervasive hunger, appears to be the only subject worthy of attention. The opinion leaders are almost evenly divided – those sympathetic to Dangote and those totally against – even though the latter are often afraid to be identified. That is power – the ability to make people fear you even when you don’t know them.

Borrowing Is The Opium Of Nigerian Governments

 By Dele Sobowale 

“The DMO said as of March 31, 2024, the country’s domestic and external debts stood at N121.67 trillion ($91.46 billion). Nigeria’s debt rose by N24.33 trillion within three months – from N97.34 trillion ($108.23 billion) in December 2023 to N121.67 trillion ($91.46 billion).” Channels Television.

Nigerian government leaders, Presidents and Governors, are addicted to loans the same way drug addicts cannot kick the habit; and become increasingly hooked. What Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala persuaded Obasanjo to do in 2004, that is paid off Nigeria’s external loans was so alien to our government leaders that one late former Governor called her “stupid”.

Nigerian Media Must Stand Firm Against Dictatorship

 By Dele Sobowale

“The jaws of power are always open to devour, and her arms are always stretched out, if possible, to destroy the freedom of thinking, speaking and writing [the truth] – John Adams,1735-1826, US President, 1797-1801.

The Nigerian media, print, electronic, main line and online, except the traitors in the industry, is under attack now as never before since the late General Sani Abacha. Now, as then, those whose principles have not been compromised by being now closer to the corridors of power must close ranks and wage this war against freedom to the end. The end, of course, means retaining our liberties to publish or broadcast the truth to the people of Nigeria – despite the ever-present wish of all governments that unfavourable reports be suppressed.

Mr President: Only 100,000 People Can Start A Food Revolution!

 By Dele Sobowale

“An activist is not a man who says the river is dirty; an activist is a man who steps forward to clean the river.”  — Chief Gamaliel Onosode.

Very few people now recall that the famed Onosode ran for the Presidency in 2007. Asked why an activist and already accomplished man like him wanted to go into the dirty waters of politics, the quote above was his reply. He did not win the election but he left food for thought or thought for food in that statement which I just re-discovered in my archive, buried since 2007.

The statement gave me an idea which had been developing in my mind for ten years which I once observed working well in India in the 1980s. When the Indian Prime Minister, Nehru, prohibited food importation, he also declared that “India should starve, if India cannot feed herself.” It was a bold measure which made India the largest producer and  second largest exporter of food globally. A nation which could not feed 400 million people now takes care of the food needs of 1.4 billion and still exports to the rest of the world.

Nigerians Dying Like Flies Hit By Broom

 By Dele Sobowale

“Many people sold their boys and girls for a little rice…Hunger stalked us…People of all ages began to die….Everyone had to live with half-empty stomachs …People started looting, searching for food” – Bijoykrishna, survivor of the Bengal famine in 1943 (BBC, February 23, 2023)

*Tinubu

The old man talking is reported to be 102 years old and one of the few survivors of the famine which killed millions in Bengal while World War II raged on around them. The savagery of the war and extremely bad weather resulted in horrible harvests. Suddenly, parents were “eating” their kids. Or what do you call selling your children to buy food? It happened in Bengal in 1943; it can happen anywhere – including Nigeria.

Tinubu, Beware The Troubles Of March To May!

 By Dele Sobowale

“Caesar, beware, the ides of March” – William Shakespeare, 1546-1616

As Shakespeare rendered it, in his famous book, Julius Caesar, the Roman Emperor (Jagaban if you wish) was at the peak of his powers; without realising that a plot against him was in progress. A seer approached Caesar to warn the most powerful man on Earth then about impending danger. He was dismissed with a wave of the hand.

*Tinubu 

Then it happened and world history was changed forever. Don’t get me wrong. I am not predicting another assassination. But, all the signs of a major upheaval are already present in the Nigerian polity – as to make the next three months the most dangerous in our history since January 1966.

President Tinubu, Scarcity Is Evident; Chaos Follows

 By Dele Sobowale

“Love and business and family and religion and art and patriotism are nothing but shadows of words when a man is starving” – O’Henry, 1862-1910.

*Tinubu 
About two weeks ago, your Vice President called Nigerians, who registered their displeasure about the continuing devaluation of the Naira, “clowns” for not supporting the government now when things are tough. Shettima has forgotten that he begged for the job. If he can’t stand the heat, he should resign. But, he cannot be insulting his employers. He was joined by one Felix Morka, the National Publicity Secretary of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who apparently has no relatives, friend or town’s men feeling the pain of hunger. The two, like all the “Yes-men and women” of your administration, are leading your government down the path which destroyed Buhari and others before you.

Cash Scarcity Lingers, Food Scarcity Follows

 By Dele Sobowale

“Why is cash scarce again?” — Lekan Sote, January 10, 2024.

Lekan, one of the most perceptive columnists in Nigeria today astonished me when he asked that question. Vanguard readers knew as far back as March 2023 that another round of cash scarcity was coming. It occurred in December. It will linger for a while – as long as the Federal Government and the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, continue to miss the point. 

Nigerians should actually be asking two questions regarding cash scarcity: will it end? How? The answer to the first is “Yes”; but not next month or perhaps even March. It will certainly not end before a great deal of damage would have been done to the economy. The answer to “How?” will be left untouched for now. The FG and CBN will be shocked to know the major cause of the lingering scarcity. The stranglehold on cash supply is now assuming the characteristics of a plot. 

Will Buhari Ever Face The Truth About His Govt?

 By Dele Sobowale

“But, the fact in our favour is that nothing was done under the veil of secrecy. We were as transparent and accountable as possible, being aware of the fact that posterity was the ultimate judge” – Ex-President Buhari at the launching of the books chronicling the purported achievements of his administration.

*Femi Adesina and Buhari display the book on Buhari 

I have not read the books; and for two reasons. One, I was not aware they were coming out until the news reports about the launching. Two, I have my own project requiring a lot of money. Reading a book predictably self-serving about the Buhari government is not top on my list of priorities. However, if anybody is willing to donate a set, then I promise, on my word of honour, to read the entire thing – line by line. After that, I will write a rejoinder – for the sake of posterity.

Ministry Of Humanitarian Resources Metaphor For Buhari/APC

 By Dele Sobowale

“All political parties die at last of swallowing their own lies” – Dr John Arbuthnot, 1667-1735.

*Buhari and Sadiya Umar-Farouk, former minister for Humanitarian Affairs
The Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, is close to the graveyard; mostly because Nigerians got sick and tired of the unfulfilled promises and outright lies the leaders of the party peddled for sixteen years. In a saner society, former President Obasanjo should not find five people ready to listen to his self-righteous utterances after leaving N8 trillion expenditure unexplained and $13-16 trillion taken for 10, 000MW power generation without result.

CBN: Cash Scarcity Is Here To Stay For A While

 By Dele Sobowale

“Cash Scarcity: People are hoarding bank notes – CBN.” VANGUARD, December 14, 2023.

Governor Cardoso and his new team at the top of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, can be forgiven if the current cash scarcity being experienced has caught them by surprise.

They were not in office in March, when it was predicted on these pages that another round of cash scarcity was inevitable; after the one induced by the CBN then. Before going into the reasons why we are not free of this problem yet, permit me to make one observation; which will be helpful to the current CBN Management.  Statements such as “people are hoarding cash” are more emotional than technical or professional; and they seldom solve the problem.

Tinubu Renewed Or Delayed Hope?

 By Dele Sobowale

“History does not repeat itself; man does” – Harvard Prof. Barbara Tuchman

My heart sank after reading the summary of the 2024 Budget and the promise by the Tinubu government to create a $1 trillion economy in ten years. Now, I am inclined to believe that Nigeria will never become the global economic power we yearn for as long as we continue to elect men seventy years and above as Presidents.

*Tinubu 

They all belong to the same generation making empty promises; thinking that they were inspiring their listeners.

All our Presidents, since 1999, including Jonathan, are far less informed about economics and social trends than many of their own citizens with good Master’s Degrees from reputable universities.

Palliatives In Nigeria = Two Cups Of Grains!

 By Dele Sobowale

“Blessed are they that expect nothing; for they shall never be disappointed” – Pessimist motto.

Hope renewed is becoming increasingly dream deferred. When President Tinubu announced during the inaugural address that “subsidy is gone”; and followed that with partial harmonization of exchange rates, the “hit the ground running” brigade went berserk with jubilation.

At last, a courageous leader, ready to make the tough decisions and set the nation on sustainable economic prosperity, has arrived. Those of us, who knew from bitter experiences in Nigeria and abroad, were not so sure all was well. We counseled balancing hope with realism. Talk is cheap.

Bye Buhari: Good And Timely Riddance…

 By Dele Sobowale

“In every community, there is a class of people, profoundly dangerous to the rest. I don’t mean criminals. For them we have punitive sanctions. I mean the leaders. Invariably, the most dangerous people seek power” – Saul Bellow, 1915-2005.

*Buhari

Before revealing to you how dangerous a Nigerian leader can be, permit me to explain the title of the last column of the Buhari Presidency. We were asked to write a short story, maximum length ten pages, for our term paper at the university in 1965 for our English Literature course. Help would be provided as needed. I soon required assistance.

Baba, Go Straight To Niger, Forget Daura

 By Dele Sobowale

“The evils that men do live after them…”- William Shakespeare, 1564-1616, in Julius Caesar

Outgoing President Buhari announced a few weeks ago that he might relocate to Niger Republic – if people disturb him too much in Daura. Since then, some commentators have assumed he was serious with the declaration; a few said he was only joking and his comments should not be taken too seriously. I take a different attitude.

*Buhari 

Irrespective of whether he meant it seriously or as a light joke, I think he should fly straight to Republic of Niger – where a befitting Presidential Lodge is probably waiting for him. After eight years as President of Nigeria, during which he did Niger more good than Nigeria, he should, quite rightly, expect a warmer welcome there than Daura or any place else in Nigeria.

President, Governors Disown The Poor!

 By Dele Sobowale

“Fish rots from the head.”

If you want to know how good or bad a country is, just take a look at the top politicians. It is now becoming an axiom of political science, that it is almost impossible to have a great country with absolutely atrocious leaders in charge. It all starts from the President or Prime Minister. 

*Buhari

Was there an African or black person anywhere who was not proud when Nelson Mandela was President of South Africa? Who else among the mob that was elected and ruled in Africa who has given us that sense of pride in being African and black? Mandela achieved everlasting fame, universal acclaim and respect in just five years. See what we have got in Nigeria after seven and a half years of Buhari. Surely nobody would be dishonest enough as to call him a great leader – given the legacies he and the First Lady, FL, are likely to leave behind.