GEJ: Please, Don’t Go There!

 By Oseloka H. Obaze

Good day, President Jonathan.  In the local parlance of Otu Eke and Otu Nkwo, I come in peace.  Sir, may I ask a question you need to ponder deeply before you respond? Did you forget anything at the Aso Rock Villa?  Regardless of the answer, Sir, here is the generalized message. 

*Jonathan 
 Please do not under any circumstance be lured or swayed by any individual, group or political party into seriously considering running again for the Nigerian presidency, especially in 2027. GEJ, please, don’t go there.

Those who contrive such machinations merely wish to deal you a bad and devilish political hand. Your running will not serve your purpose; and it will not add fillip to nation-building.  It will merely worsen the prevailing leadership hubris, political disequilibrium, distrust and national miasma. 

Hence, you must reject the poisoned chalice being dangled before you. The purveyors are the same political cabals that betrayed you, destroyed your erstwhile presidency and hounded you out of the same presidential office that they are now egging you on to attempt to reoccupy. What changed? Nothing! Please don’t even think of it. If you do, you may face a stormy backlash. History will forever be unkind to you. That’s the truth; and I will offer other cogent reasons.

First, the constitutional validity of your making another (technically third) run at the Nigerian presidency after having been sworn in twice is fraught with controversy and imponderables. In my simple, but not-so-legal mind, you are no longer eligible to contest. If you run and win, the same cabal will use the courts to abort your victory, and take over the presidency. Please don’t humour them!

Second, those pushing you to run were the same people who tried to block you from legally succeeding indisposed President Umaru Yar’Adua, thus compelling the invocation of the Doctrine of Necessity. They only want to use your running in 2027 to forestall Peter Obi and the southeast from having a shot at the Nigerian presidency. They serve primordial interests and are neither reformed nor converted.

Third, to those pushing for your presidential run, your candidacy merely represents a default fourth strategic option. First, they are disgusted with the Tinubu-Shettima Muslim-Muslim ticket, which they foisted on secular Nigeria.  Second, they don’t want Peter Obi and his one term declamation out of fear that it might turn into a full eight-year term. And third, they know that no Northerner can win the presidency in 2027, given that it is the second segment of a southern eight-year mandate. Ostensibly, you are their fourth choice and expedient tool; not necessarily a credible alternative. They believe that constitutionally, you are, ab initio, limited to one term. That’s what makes you attractive to them.

Fourth, in April 2011, the southeast zone delivered the largest chunk of 22.4 million votes that guaranteed your winning that presidential election.  The southeast zone delivered 97.2% of their cumulative votes to you. Mr. President if you run and foreclose on a southeast candidate, you won’t get those southeast votes, and your candidacy will surely smack of ingratitude. Nigerians don’t know you as an ungrateful person. Don’t alter that attribute and humility. Keep your credibility intact.

Fifth, the incumbent administration has notoriously weaponized the use of governmental institutions to harass the political opposition or “forgive the sins” of those malleable few, who are willing to join them.  Don’t bet that they will not come after you if you ever decide to challenge the status quo. 

Sixth, it’s only the cabal’s groupthink that makes it utterly seductive to suggest that your candidacy represents the most formidable rallying impetus for the national alliance required to unseat President Bola Tinubu and the APC. Yet, your candidacy will be the proverbial double-edged Brutusque sword that cuts both ways, and very deep too.

Finally, Sir, your credentials as an elder statesman have grown exponentially both at home and abroad since you left office on 29th May 2015. Don’t alter that trajectory for no just cause.  Your decision not to run will do more for nation-building than the decision to run.  Nonetheless, the decision is yours.  But history will ultimately, be the judge. If my analysis seems presumptuous, please pardon me.  As a student of politics and a patriot, I’ve only elected to speak truth to power.

*Obaze is a commentator on public issues