By Dele Sobowale
“If they go about solving the problem this way, how many more problems will they have created by the time they are through” -James Baldwin, 1924-1987, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p201, available online.
By any objective measure known to adults globally, what we have on our hands with regard to fuel problem is a fiasco. You cannot ask any of those in control of our fate in this regard a straight question and receive a reliable answer. Two Presidents, the Minister of Petroleum, the Minister of State for Petroleum, the Minister of Finance, the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, the Debt Management Office, DMO, the Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, all the regulatory commissions and agencies of government. The conspiracy of falsehood started since the Dangote Refinery was nearing, but still far from, completion in March 2023.
As many Nigerian observers will recollect, President
Buhari commissioned the Dangote Refinery using the language that gave the
impression that fuel production would start within a few months. We now know
the truth. Buhari and Dangote just wanted the former President to be the one to
have his name on the refinery plaque instead of his successor. Among the
promises made or implied were the following: The refinery would end fuel
scarcity and queues at filling stations; it would crash the price of petrol
which was about N180 per litre at the time and create 150,000 jobs-directly or
indirectly. The impression was also given that Nigeria’s four refineries would
be resuscitated to complement the Dangote Refinery supply; and, government
would no longer dictate fuel price. It all sounded great then; but my Fellow
Nigerians have failed to understand one abiding truth.
“Every government is run by
liars; and nothing they say should be believed” – I. F. Stone, 1907-1989, VBQ p80.
Of all the entries in my book of quotations, this I perhaps the one most frequently used; and for easily demonstrable reasons. In Nigeria and elsewhere in the world, the totally honest politician is almost impossible to find. Since politicians run for office, the electorate in every country is condemned to choosing between all the available dissemblers running for office.
That, however, is in even a so-called
democracy. In totalitarian regimes, the people are destined to accepting the
falsehood published by their captors. Nigerian politicians are not the worst by
any means; in fact they are better than those in Cameroon or Afghanistan. When
it comes to peddling untruths, they are ranking amateurs. That is why what they
say is so often easy to disprove – as in the issue of petroleum resources and
fuel. Everything that was said by virtually everybody in government and the
private sector providers had turned out to be false.
WAS DANGOTE REFINERY ESTABLISHED TO STOP IMPORTATION?
“I am beginning to wonder how
many fools it takes to make the term ‘My Fellow Citizens'” – Honore de Balzac,
1799-1850, in LOST ILLUSIONS.
Most of the 220 million
Nigerians alive today are not in any way better than their forefathers. Ask
anybody if there was free education in the old Western Region?
And, ninety-nine per cent of the
time, the answer would be “yes”. I thought so too until August 1964 when I took
my Economics la Course at the university in the US. The lecturer would usually
start his first class by telling a story which I will repeat below. A young
prince, 12, became king when his father, just 40, suddenly died. Not wanting to
make terrible mistakes in governance, the monarch gathered all the leading
experts in every field – including economics – and instructed them to summarise
the ideas, principles, laws etc in their fields. All returned three months
after with truckloads of documents; which overwhelmed the poor youth. He asked
for further reductions. They returned with twenty four pages of Executive
Summary.
Finally, like all those with absolute power; he ordered that the ideas be reduced to one sentence. The economists quickly put their heads together and the leader raised his hand; after being recognised he pronounced: “There is no such thing as a free lunch.”
For that matter, there is no such thing as free education, free health service
and there should be no free ride on highways. I raised my hand out of ignorance
to state categorically that “there is free education in the Western Region of
Nigeria, Sir.” Dr Cohen looked up; and said:
“You are the third Nigerian who
would repeat that statement in my class. How many more fools are there in your
country; who cannot distinguish between ‘free and public education?’ What is
practised in Nigeria is public education, just like several countries in the
world. The taxpayers are paying for that gimmick.” I would have gladly crawled
into a hole if one had opened up. I learnt a simple economic principle the hard
way.
Later, in the third year, I
received another knock on the head to drive home a truth which has escaped many
Nigerians today. The professor teaching Business and Economy, when opening the
section on ‘Entrepreneurship’, would kick off by announcing that the capitalist
investor is motivated primarily by his desire to make as much money as
possible.
He does not start a business for any other reason.
That is why it was at first amusing, and later alarming, to me when several
self-deluded Nigerians, including President Buhari, the CBN Governor,
financial/economic analysts and commentators, assumed that the Dangote Refinery
was being established to stop fuel importation, to create jobs and to grow the
Gross Domestic Product, GDP, of Nigeria. Starting with that fallacy, they
quickly jumped to the fatal conclusion that Dangote must be given 100 per cent
support to achieve his objectives; apparently without regard to the individual
and collective interests of “Fellow Nigerians”.
Well, the Dangote Refinery is here. Why then are we
paying N1, 200/litre for petrol which we fetched for N180/litre before it was
established? I must have been one of the few Nigerians who knew right from the
beginning that Nigerians were being taken for an unpleasant ride. For reasons I
don’t now want to disclose, it is my candid view that the establishment of
Dangote Refinery is not the salvation we expected. Most certainly, it will not
crash fuel price as expected.
WHERE IS GOVERNMENT IN ALL THESE?
“Leadership is always
mysterious. Leadership can be summed up in two words: Intelligence and
integrity, or to use two synonyms: Competence and character” – John Brademas,
US Congressman, VBQ p125.
Think of anyone in top government positions – Presidency, Ministry of Petroleum Resources, National Assembly, CBN and the Departments and Agencies – who had an official role to play in getting Dangote, the four refineries and Nigerians into this quagmire. Think again of the words – intelligence, integrity, competence and character. Then, ask yourself: Which of these attributes can be applied to any of them?
All of a sudden, it becomes clear why our present predicament is inevitable;
and the self-delusion, which one of their yes-men call “optimism”, is totally
not in the national or personal interest. They should have known that the
Dangote Refinery would not alone solve our fuel problems; that the four
refineries were septic tanks into which they were throwing public funds without
the scantiest hope of returns. Yet, they granted Dangote all sorts of
concessions; promoted the idea that, once started, it would crash fuel prices
and stop imports. The tissue of lies has been exposed because all lies have an
expiry date; and the time is up for these ones.
The Minister of State for
Petroleum Resources and the GMD-NNPCL promised Nigerians that the Port-Harcourt
and Warri refineries would begin fuel supplies by December last year. Ten
months after, there has been no fuel from the two.
In July, the National Assembly was told that crude
oil production would reach two million barrels per day, mbpd, and Nigeria would
be exporting fuel by December. Who, in his right senses, now believes the two?
More to the point: Why are they still in office?
*Dr Sobowale is a commentator on public issues
No comments:
Post a Comment